Multivariable associations between disease activity and other clinical factors and the risk of incident diabetes among participants without diabetes at enrolment (all variables included in a single model)
| Model 1: Baseline predictors N=1866 P-Y=9223; events: 130 | Model 2: Time-varying exposures N=1866 P-Y=9223; events: 130 | |||
| HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Age (per 1 year) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.02) | 0.056 | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.03) | 0.07 |
| Female | 0.25 (0.12 to 0.52) | <0.001 | 0.25 (0.12 to 0.52) | <0.001 |
| White | 1.01 (0.64 to 1.63) | 0.83 | 1.06 (0.79 to 1.44) | 0.66 |
| Current smoking | 0.64 (0.50 to 0.82) | <0.001 | 0.63 (0.45 to 0.87) | 0.006 |
| Former smoking | 0.70 (0.49 to 1.00) | 0.05 | 0.69 (0.41 to 1.41) | 0.15 |
| BMI category | ||||
| <20 kg/m2 | 1.00 (0.12 to 8.19) | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.39 to 3.27) | 0.93 |
| 20–25 kg/m2 | (reference) | — | (reference) | — |
| 25–30 kg/m2 | 3.60 (1.84 to 7.03) | <0.001 | 2.64 (1.72 to 4.06) | <0.001 |
| 30–35 kg/m2 | 4.39 (2.69 to 7.29) | <0.001 | 4.33 (2.54 to 7.39) | <0.001 |
| >35 kg/m2 | 6.82 (3.26 to 14.28) | <0.001 | 6.55 (4.40 to 9.76) | <0.001 |
| DAS28(CRP) | ||||
| Remission | (reference) | — | (reference) | — |
| Low | 1.10 (0.53 to 2.48) | 0.81 | 1.29 (0.49 to 3.40) | 0.61 |
| Moderate | 1.50 (0.89 to 2.34) | 0.14 | 1.58 (1.26 to 1.90) | <0.001 |
| High | 2.12 (1.45 to 3.10) | <0.001 | 1.52 (0.77 to 3.01) | 0.23 |
| Methotrexate | 0.68 (0.50 to 0.81) | 0.006 | 0.68 (0.50 to 0.93) | 0.02 |
| Hydroxychloroquine | 1.07 (0.57 to 2.02) | 0.84 | 0.89 (0.65 to 1.21) | 0.45 |
| TNFi | 1.47 (0.83 to 2.60) | 0.17 | 1.01 (0.75 to 1.36) | 0.94 |
| Abatacept | — | — | 0.81 (0.17 to 3.82) | 0.79 |
| Prednisone | 1.05 (0.87 to 1.26) | 0.58 | 1.25 (0.88 to 1.80) | 0.22 |
Disease activity, BMI and therapies evaluated as time-varying covariates in model 2. Abatacept was not included in model 1 due to insufficient numbers of patients on this medication at enrolment.
Model 2: Time-varying exposures include BMI, DAS28(CRP), methotrexate, TNFi, prednisone and hydroxychloroquine.
Considered but not included in the final models: disease duration, ACPA serostatus, geographic region, calendar year, number of prior biologics.
. BMI, body mass index; CRP, C reactive protein; DAS, Disease Activity Score; P-Y, person years; TNFi, tumour necrosis factor inhibitor.