Table 3

Mediation effects for outcome WOMAC pain over 24 months: association of change in cartilage thickness loss over 24 months, with change in WOMAC knee

Exposure: cartilage thickness loss over 24 monthsMediator: synovitis score change over 24 months
Mean change in WOMAC knee pain over 24 months*
Mediator: BML score change over 24 months
Mean change in WOMAC knee pain over 24 months*
Exposure: 0.1 mm cartilage thickness loss over 24 months
 Controlled direct effect0.28 (−1.68 to 2.24)†0.33 (−1.62 to 2.30)†
 Indirect effect0.05 (−1.91 to 2.01)0.01 (−1.95 to 1.97)
 Total effect0.33 (−1.63 to 2.29)0.34 (−1.62 to 2.30)
 Proportion
 mediated
14.11% (2.07% to 26.15%)2.77% (−1.71% to 7.25%)
Exposure: 0.05 mm cartilage thickness loss over 24 months
 Controlled direct effect0.14 (−1.82 to 2.10)0.17 (−1.79 to 2.13)
 Indirect effect0.02 (−1.92 to 1.98)0.004 (−1.96 to 1.96)
 Total effect0.16 (−1.80 to 2.12)0.17 (−1.79 to 2.13)
 Proportion
 mediated
14.11% (2.07% to 26.15%)2.77% (−1.71% to 7.25%)
  • Positive(+) coefficient indicates an increase in the outcome WOMAC pain.

  • Models for mediation by change in synovitis score adjusted for standard covariates above +baseline BML score.

  • Models for mediation by change in BML score adjusted for standard covariates above +baseline synovitis score.

  • *All models adjusted for age, sex, BMI, race, depressive symptoms (CESD) and baseline WOMAC pain.

  • †Values are unstandardised regression coefficients representing mean change in WOMAC knee pain over 24 months.

  • BMI, body mass index; BML, bone marrow lesion; CESD, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; WOMAC, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index.