Table 4

ORs (95% CI) and goodness-of-fit of different definitions of remission in predicting damage accrual by Poisson regression*

PDN ≤5 mg/dayPGA <0.5cSLEDAI=0PGA <0.5 plus PDN ≤5 mg/daycSLEDAI=0 plus
PGA <0.5		cSLEDAI=0 plus PDN ≤5 mg/daycSLEDAI=0 plus PGA <0.5 plus PDN ≤5 mg/day
Five consecutive year remission0.620
(0.430 to 0.894)
0.010 		0.377
(0.293 to 0.595)
<0.0001 		0.382
(0.260 to 0.561)
<0.0001 		0.363
(0.227 to 0.581)
<0.0001 		0.397
(0.251 to 0.626)
<0.0001 		0.411
(0.275 to 0.614)
0.0001 		0.374
(0.234 to 0.599)
<0.0001
Four consecutive year remission0.391
(0.245 to 0.625)
<0.0001 		0.226
(0.130 to 0.394)
<0.0001 		0.173
(0.105 to 0.286)
<0.0001 		0.294
(0.177 to 0.487)
<0.0001 		0.243
(0.140 to 0.424)
<0.0001 		0.251
(0.155 to 0.405)
<0.0001 		0.296
(0.176 to 0.496)
<0.0001
Three consecutive year remission0.912
(0.601 to 1.386)
0.668 		0.427
(0.281 to 0.649)
<0.0001 		0.512
(0.342 to 0.767)
0.0001 		0.430
(0.278 to 0.665)
<0.0001 		0.459
(0.302 to 0.698)
<0.0001 		0.548
(0.363 to 0.828)
0.0004 		0.438
(0.284 to 0.676)
<0.0001
Two consecutive year remission0.858
(0.566 to 1.300)
0.471 		0.560
(0.396 to 0.793)
0.0001 		0.454
(0.319 to 0.647)
<0.0001 		0.495
(0.341 to 0.718)
<0.0001 		0.514
(0.359 to 0.737)
<0.0001 		0.497
(0.345 to 0.717)
<0.0001 		0.479
(0.327 to 0.702)
<0.0001
1-year remission0.952
(0.611 to 1.484)
0.828 		0.808
(0.590 to 1.107)
0.185 		0.766
(0.548 to 1.071)
0.119 		0.764
(0.554 to 1.053)
0.101 		0.857
(0.629 to 1.166)
0.326 		0.888
(0.642 to 1.227)
0.471 		0.800
(0.583 to 1.098)
0.167
AIC1132.831100.621082.901105.871103.961101.131106.59
BIC1159.661127.441109.721132.701130.781127.961133.42
P value <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001

  • Significant variables are given in grey cells.

  • Number of patients in the analysis: 646.

  • *SDI increase during follow-up (range 0–4) was considered the dependent variable in Poisson regression. The best performance in predicting damage accrual was identified with the lowest AIC and BIC.

  • AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; cSLEDAI, clinical SLE Disease Activity Index 2000; PDN, prednisone; PGA, physician global assessment; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus.