ORs (95% CI) and goodness-of-fit of different definitions of remission in predicting damage accrual by Poisson regression*
PDN ≤5 mg/day | PGA <0.5 | cSLEDAI=0 | PGA <0.5 plus PDN ≤5 mg/day | cSLEDAI=0 plus PGA <0.5 | cSLEDAI=0 plus PDN ≤5 mg/day | cSLEDAI=0 plus PGA <0.5 plus PDN ≤5 mg/day | |
Five consecutive year remission | 0.620 (0.430 to 0.894) 0.010 | 0.377 (0.293 to 0.595) <0.0001 | 0.382 (0.260 to 0.561) <0.0001 | 0.363 (0.227 to 0.581) <0.0001 | 0.397 (0.251 to 0.626) <0.0001 | 0.411 (0.275 to 0.614) 0.0001 | 0.374 (0.234 to 0.599) <0.0001 |
Four consecutive year remission | 0.391 (0.245 to 0.625) <0.0001 | 0.226 (0.130 to 0.394) <0.0001 | 0.173 (0.105 to 0.286) <0.0001 | 0.294 (0.177 to 0.487) <0.0001 | 0.243 (0.140 to 0.424) <0.0001 | 0.251 (0.155 to 0.405) <0.0001 | 0.296 (0.176 to 0.496) <0.0001 |
Three consecutive year remission | 0.912 (0.601 to 1.386) 0.668 | 0.427 (0.281 to 0.649) <0.0001 | 0.512 (0.342 to 0.767) 0.0001 | 0.430 (0.278 to 0.665) <0.0001 | 0.459 (0.302 to 0.698) <0.0001 | 0.548 (0.363 to 0.828) 0.0004 | 0.438 (0.284 to 0.676) <0.0001 |
Two consecutive year remission | 0.858 (0.566 to 1.300) 0.471 | 0.560 (0.396 to 0.793) 0.0001 | 0.454 (0.319 to 0.647) <0.0001 | 0.495 (0.341 to 0.718) <0.0001 | 0.514 (0.359 to 0.737) <0.0001 | 0.497 (0.345 to 0.717) <0.0001 | 0.479 (0.327 to 0.702) <0.0001 |
1-year remission | 0.952 (0.611 to 1.484) 0.828 | 0.808 (0.590 to 1.107) 0.185 | 0.766 (0.548 to 1.071) 0.119 | 0.764 (0.554 to 1.053) 0.101 | 0.857 (0.629 to 1.166) 0.326 | 0.888 (0.642 to 1.227) 0.471 | 0.800 (0.583 to 1.098) 0.167 |
AIC | 1132.83 | 1100.62 | 1082.90 | 1105.87 | 1103.96 | 1101.13 | 1106.59 |
BIC | 1159.66 | 1127.44 | 1109.72 | 1132.70 | 1130.78 | 1127.96 | 1133.42 |
P value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
Significant variables are given in grey cells.
Number of patients in the analysis: 646.
*SDI increase during follow-up (range 0–4) was considered the dependent variable in Poisson regression. The best performance in predicting damage accrual was identified with the lowest AIC and BIC.
AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; cSLEDAI, clinical SLE Disease Activity Index 2000; PDN, prednisone; PGA, physician global assessment; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus.