Parameters of the prediction model in the derivation, validation and pooled cohorts
| Weighted score cut-off values | Derivation cohort (n=108) | Validation cohort (n=87) | Pooled cohort (n=195) | ||||||
| ≥1 | ≥2 | ≥3 | ≥1 | ≥2 | ≥3 | ≥1 | ≥2 | ≥3 | |
| Sensitivity (%) | 100 | 97.3 | 51.4 | 100 | 100 | 96.6 | 100 | 98.5 | 71.2 |
| Specificity (%) | 36.6 | 81.7 | 100 | 41.4 | 65.5 | 89.7 | 38.8 | 74.4 | 95.4 |
| PPV (%) | 45.1 | 70.6 | 100 | 46.0 | 59.2 | 82.4 | 45.5 | 66.3 | 88.7 |
| NPV (%) | 100 | 98.2 | 79.8 | 100 | 100 | 98.1 | 100 | 99.0 | 86.6 |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) | 0.94 (0.90 to 0.97) | ||||||
| Prediction model and scoring system | |||||||||
| Time interval between SLE and PAH | <2 years | 1 | SLEDAI | >9 | 2 | ||||
| ≥2 years | 0 | 5–9 | 1 | ||||||
| <5 | 0 | ||||||||
AUC, area under the curve;NPV, negative predictive value; PAH, pulmonary arterial hypertension; PPV, positive predictive value; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus; SLEDAI, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index.