Table 1

Parameters of the prediction model in the derivation, validation and pooled cohorts

Weighted score cut-off valuesDerivation cohort (n=108)Validation cohort (n=87)Pooled cohort (n=195)
Sensitivity (%)10097.351.410010096.610098.571.2
Specificity (%)36.681.710041.465.589.738.874.495.4
PPV (%)45.170.610046.059.282.445.566.388.7
NPV (%)10098.279.810010098.110099.086.6
AUC (95% CI)0.95 (0.91 to 0.99)0.94 (0.89 to 0.99)0.94 (0.90 to 0.97)
Prediction model and scoring system
Time interval between SLE and PAH <2 years1 SLEDAI >92
≥2 years05–91
  • AUC, area under the curve;NPV, negative predictive value; PAH, pulmonary arterial hypertension; PPV, positive predictive value; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus; SLEDAI, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index.