Table 1

Univariate analyses and multivariate analysesrisk factors of van der Heijde modified Sharp score (SHS) progression in the first 3 years

N = 615No radiological progression, n=290Radiological progression, n=325Univariate analysis HR (95% CI)P valueMultivariate analysis HR (95% CI)P value
Female gender (%)79.3% (230)76.9% (250)0.95 (0.73 to 1.23)0.696
CRP (mg/dL)7 (4 to 18)12 (5 to 28)1.03 (1 to 1.06)0.047Not selected
ACPA (IU)0 (0 to 256)121 (0 to 572)1.01 (1 to 1.01)0.0401.01 (1 to 1.01)0.093
DAS-285.2±1.225.3±1.21.07 (0.98 to 1.17)0.148
Age (years)48.7 (38 to 56.3)52.4 (41.1 to 58.4)1.01 (1 to 1.02)0.082
Current smoking48.3% (140)46.8% (152)1.04 (0.84 to 1.29)0.732
DMARDs (%)77.2% (224)86.8% (282)1.50 (1.09 to 2.07)0.0131.36 (0.99 to 1.89)0.060
Calprotectin (µg/cL)3.2 (1.88 to 4.8)3.8 (2.3 to 5.3)1.06 (1.01 to 1.12)0.0271.06 (1 to 1.11)0.045
  • Univariate and multivariate analyses: Cox model; HR (95% CI).

  • Percentage (number); mean ±SD or median (25th, 75th centiles) where appropriate.

  • ACPA, anti-citrullinated protein/peptide antibody; CRP, C reactive protein (mg/dL); DAS-28, Disease Activity Score-28; DMARDs, disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, that is, methotrexate ≥7.5 mg/week, leflunomide at the visit before radiological evolution or at the last follow-up visit; IU, international unit; Not selected, outcome was excluded from multivariate Cox model because P value for model entry was >0.5 or P value for model retention was>0.10. Radiological progression was defined as an increase ≥5 of the total SHS score.