Table 3

Penalised logistic regression for predictors of progression to autoimmune-related connective tissue disease at 12 months

Baseline predictorsNo progression n=99Progression n=19Univariable OR (95% CI),
p values
Multivariable OR (95% CI),
p values
Penalised coefficient to OR
Age, mean (SD)49.0 (15.8)39.6 (11.9)0.96 (0.93 to 0.99), 0.0160.97 (0.92 to 1.02), 0.2320.000 to 1.000
Ever smoked, (%)41.8%20.0%0.35 (0.11 to 1.12), 0.0760.34 (0.06 to 1.91), 0.2220.000 to 1.000
Family history of ARDs (%)30.6%65.0%4.21 (1.53 to 11.61), 0.005 8.20 (1.58 to 42.53), 0.012 0.243 to 1.275
No of positive ANA specificities, median (IQR)1 (1–1)1 (1–2)2.07 (0.97 to 4.40), 0.0602.41 (0.71 to 8.20), 0.1610.000 to 1.000
Complement C4 level, mean (SD)0.29 (0.12)0.26 (0.08)0.06 (0.00 to 8.05), 0.264ExcludedExcluded
Lymphocyte count, mean (SD)2.04 (0.77)1.83 (0.67)0.67 (0.34 to 1.34), 0.257ExcludedExcluded
No of joints with positive ultrasound for synovitis, median (IQR)0 (0–0)0 (0–2)1.20 (0.97 to 1.47), 0.0861.44 (0.98 to 2.11), 0.0610.002 to 1.002
Patient VAS, median (IQR)36 (16–61)47 (26–75)1.02 (1.00 to 1.04), 0.0791.01 (0.98 to 1.04), 0.4840.000 to 1.000
Physician VAS, median (IQR)11 (3–31)31 (15–47)1.04 (1.01 to 1.06), 0.0081.01 (0.97 to 1.06), 0.6180.000 to 1.000
IFN-Score-A (−ΔCt), mean (SD)*−5.3 (1.9)−3.8 (2.26)1.43 (1.11 to 1.84), 0.0050.87 (0.54 to 1.39), 0.5600.000 to 1.000
IFN-Score-B (−ΔCt), mean (SD)*−5.3 (1.4)−3.7 (1.0)2.55 (1.60 to 4.08), <0.001 3.79 (1.50 to 9.58), 0.005 0.319 to 1.376
  • *Analysis was made based on reflected ∆Ct. Thus, the higher the number, the higher the gene expression to give positive values for ORs.

  • ANA, antinuclear antibody; ARD, autoimmune rheumatic disease; IFN, interferon; VAS, Visual Analogue Score.