Penalised logistic regression for predictors of progression to autoimmune-related connective tissue disease at 12 months
| Baseline predictors | No progression n=99 | Progression n=19 | Univariable OR (95% CI), p values | Multivariable OR (95% CI), p values | Penalised coefficient to OR |
| Age, mean (SD) | 49.0 (15.8) | 39.6 (11.9) | 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99), 0.016 | 0.97 (0.92 to 1.02), 0.232 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| Ever smoked, (%) | 41.8% | 20.0% | 0.35 (0.11 to 1.12), 0.076 | 0.34 (0.06 to 1.91), 0.222 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| Family history of ARDs (%) | 30.6% | 65.0% | 4.21 (1.53 to 11.61), 0.005 | 8.20 (1.58 to 42.53), 0.012 | 0.243 to 1.275 |
| No of positive ANA specificities, median (IQR) | 1 (1–1) | 1 (1–2) | 2.07 (0.97 to 4.40), 0.060 | 2.41 (0.71 to 8.20), 0.161 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| Complement C4 level, mean (SD) | 0.29 (0.12) | 0.26 (0.08) | 0.06 (0.00 to 8.05), 0.264 | Excluded | Excluded |
| Lymphocyte count, mean (SD) | 2.04 (0.77) | 1.83 (0.67) | 0.67 (0.34 to 1.34), 0.257 | Excluded | Excluded |
| No of joints with positive ultrasound for synovitis, median (IQR) | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–2) | 1.20 (0.97 to 1.47), 0.086 | 1.44 (0.98 to 2.11), 0.061 | 0.002 to 1.002 |
| Patient VAS, median (IQR) | 36 (16–61) | 47 (26–75) | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.04), 0.079 | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04), 0.484 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| Physician VAS, median (IQR) | 11 (3–31) | 31 (15–47) | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.06), 0.008 | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.06), 0.618 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| IFN-Score-A (−ΔCt), mean (SD)* | −5.3 (1.9) | −3.8 (2.26) | 1.43 (1.11 to 1.84), 0.005 | 0.87 (0.54 to 1.39), 0.560 | 0.000 to 1.000 |
| IFN-Score-B (−ΔCt), mean (SD)* | −5.3 (1.4) | −3.7 (1.0) | 2.55 (1.60 to 4.08), <0.001 | 3.79 (1.50 to 9.58), 0.005 | 0.319 to 1.376 |
*Analysis was made based on reflected ∆Ct. Thus, the higher the number, the higher the gene expression to give positive values for ORs.
ANA, antinuclear antibody; ARD, autoimmune rheumatic disease; IFN, interferon; VAS, Visual Analogue Score.