Table 3

Prediction models of progression of mild SSc-ILD in the derivation cohort

ModelIncluded predictorsPPV (prediction success)NPV (%)Sensitivity (%)Specificity (%)AUC (95% CI)P values
1SpO2 after 6MWT≤94%17/28 (60.7%)88.468.084.70.76 (0.65 to 0.88)<0.001
2Arthritis ever15/27 (55.6%)85.960.083.60.72 (0.59 to 0.84)0.001
3SpO2 after 6MWT≤94% and arthritis ever11/12 (91.7%)83.544.098.60.71 (0.58 to 0.85)0.002
4SpO2 after 6MWT≤94% or arthritis ever21/43 (48.8%)92.684.069.40.77 (0.66 to 0.87)<0.001
  • 6MWT, 6 min walk test; AUC, area under the curve; ILD, interstitial lung disease;  NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SpO2, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation; SSc, systemic sclerosis.