Predictor variable | Bb (12–15 weeks) n=323 subjects, 70 events | Bb (16–19 weeks) n=317 subjects, 60 events | sC5b-9 (12–15 weeks) n=320 subjects, 68 events | sC5b-9 (16–19 weeks) n=317 subjects, 60 events | ||||
OR (95% CI) | P value | OR (95% CI) | P value | OR (95% CI) | P value | OR (95% CI) | P value | |
Non-Hispanic white (yes vs no) | 0.74 (0.39 to 1.40) | 0.35 | 0.64 (0.32 to 1.27) | 0.20 | 0.70 (0.37 to 1.33) | 0.27 | 0.55 (0.28 to 1.09) | 0.086 |
SLE status (positive vs negative) | 1.27 (0.51 to 3.22) | 0.61 | 0.82 (0.31 to 2.18) | 0.69 | 1.07 (0.43 to 2.71) | 0.88 | 0.72 (0.27 to 1.95) | 0.52 |
LAC status (positive vs negative) | 5.81 (2.55 to 13.25) | <0.001 | 2.41 (0.94 to 6.15) | 0.067 | 6.58 (2.89 to 14.98) | <0.001 | 2.85 (1.12 to 7.26) | 0.028 |
History of thrombosis (yes vs no) | 2.51 (1.11 to 5.65) | 0.027 | 2.85 (1.26 to 6.46) | 0.012 | 2.35 (1.04 to 5.29) | 0.040 | 2.73 (1.23 to 6.08) | 0.014 |
Diastolic pressure>80 mm Hg (yes vs no) | 3.13 (1.42 to 6.91) | 0.005 | 4.46 (2.01 to 9.88) | <0.001 | 2.82 (1.29 to 6.20) | 0.010 | 4.27 (1.97 to 9.26) | <0.001 |
Aspirin use (yes vs no) | 0.57 (0.29 to 1.11) | 0.095 | 0.58 (0.28 to 1.17) | 0.13 | 0.57 (0.29 to 1.12) | 0.104 | 0.65 (0.32 to 1.31) | 0.22 |
Current antihypertensive (yes vs no) | 3.82 (1.44 to 10.10) | 0.007 | 4.37 (1.60 to 11.95) | 0.004 | 4.61 (1.75 to 12.14) | 0.002 | 4.37 (1.64 to 11.63) | 0.003 |
BMI | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.18 | ||||
< 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
25–30 | 0.78 (0.38 to 1.59) | 0.82 (0.36 to 1.82) | 0.70 (0.34 to 1.45) | 0.68 (0.31 to 1.51) | ||||
> 30 | 1.28 (0.54 to 3.02) | 1.33 (0.53 to 3.36) | 1.29 (0.55 to 3.05) | 1.42 (0.57 to 3.51) | ||||
Bb per SD increase* | 1.41 (1.06 to 1.89) | 0.019 | 1.59 (1.16 to 2.17) | 0.004 | —— | —— | ||
sC5b-9 per SD increase* | —— | —— | 1.37 (1.05 to 1.80) | 0.022 | 1.26 (0.94 to 1.68) | 0.12 | ||
Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test | 0.85 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.22 | ||||
AUC | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | ||||
Cross-validated AUC | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
*SD for Bb=0.38 µg/mL at 12–15 weeks and 0.37 µg/mL at 16–19 weeks; SD for sC5b9=196 ng/mL at 12–15 weeks and 223 ng/mL at 16–19 weeks.
AUC, area under the ROC curve; BMI, body mass index; LAC, lupus anticoagulant; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus.