Table 3

Rules for selecting progressive patients according to two selected models

If duration of skin thickening is (months)	Model A	Model B
	AUC: 0.666 Sensitivity: 73.4% Specificity: 57.2% PPV: 33.8% NPV: 87.9% Accuracy: 60.9%	AUC: 0.711 Sensitivity: 60.4% Specificity: 74.2% PPV: 41.0% NPV: 86.3% Accuracy: 71.0%
	All patients	Pol3+ patients	All others
	mRSS should be (units) or less	mRSS should be (units) or less	mRSS should be (units) or less
1	51	51	51
2	51	51	51
3	43	51	51
4	37	51	37
5	33	51	28
6	29	48	23
7	27	40	20
8	25	35	18
9	23	31	16
10	22	28	15
11	21	26	14
12	20	24	13
13	19	22	13
14	18	21	12
15	18	20	12
16	17	19	11
17	17	18	11
18	16	17	11
19	16	17	10
20	15	16	10
21	15	16	10
22	15	15	10
23	15	15	10
24	14	14	9
25	14	14	9
26	14	14	9
27	14	13	9
28	13	13	9
29	13	13	9
30	13	13	9
31	13	12	9
32	13	12	9
33	13	12	8
34	12	12	8
35	12	12	8
36	12	11	8

For each duration, the required mRSS level is rounded above to the nearest integer to reflect real mRSS values.
AUC, area under curve; mRSS, modified Rodnan skin score; PPV, positive predictive value.