Table 2

Interferon (IFN)-associated mediators and select autoantibody specificities predict transition to systemic lupus erythematosus

Sample timeSensitivity (95% CI)Specificity (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)OOB error
>4 years before classification*0.941.001.000.950.07
>2 years before classification†0.960.980.980.970.03
Before classification‡0.950.990.980.970.05
After classification§
All samples¶0.950.990.980.970.03
  • Modelling performed by random forest analysis.

  • *IFN-γ, MCP-3, anti-chromatin, anti-Sm, low levels of B-lymphocyte stimulator.

  • †IFN-γ, MCP-3, anti-chromatin, anti-Sm, anti-RNP, anti-Ro/SSA, anti-double-stranded DNA.

  • ‡IFN-γ, MCP-3, anti-chromatin, anti-RNP, anti-Ro/SSA, anti-SmRNP.

  • §MCP-3, IFN-γ, anti-chromatin, anti-SmRNP, anti-RNP, anti-Sm, anti-Ro/SSA.

  • ¶IFN-γ, MCP-3, anti-chromatin, anti-RNP, anti-Ro/SSA.

  • NPV, negative predictive value; OOB, out-of-bag; PPV, positive predictive value.