Table 5

Test characteristics of ACPA and subclinical MRI inflammation for arthritis development within 1 year

Sens (95% CI)Spec (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)LR+ (95% CI)LR− (95% CI)AUC (95% CI)
ACPA in all patients with CSA57% (48% to 66%)93% (89% to 98%)63% (55% to 72%)91% (86% to 96%)8.24 (3.69 to 18.44)0.46 (0.28 to 0.76)0.75 (0.62 to 0.89)
MRI in all patients with CSA81% (74% to 88%)63% (55% to 72%)31% (23% to 40%)94% (90% to 98%)2.21 (1.59 to 3.07)0.30 (0.12 to 0.74)0.72 (0.61 to 0.84)
MRI in ACPA-positive patients with CSA83% (67% to 100%)43% (21% to 65%)71% (51% to 92%)60% (38% to 82%)1.46 (0.73 to 2.91)0.39 (0.08 to 1.79)0.63 (0.36 to 0.90)
MRI in ACPA-negative patients with CSA78% (70% to 86%)65% (56% to 74%)18% (10% to 25%)97% (93% to 100%)2.22 (1.42 to 3.46)0.34 (0.10 to 1.17)0.71 (0.54 to 0.88)
  • Presented are the test characteristics for arthritis development within the first year in 122 patients with clinically suspect arthralgia who had completed 1-year follow-up and had data on ACPA and MRI.

  • ACPA, anticitrullinated peptide antibodies; AUC, area under the curve; CSA, clinically suspect arthralgia; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sens, sensitivity; Spec, specificity.