Table 3

Prognostic implications of established response definitions

Response levels observed at 3 monthsTARGET=SDAI low disease activity (LDA) at 6 monthsTARGET=SDAI remission (REM) at 6 months
Definition% (n/N)*Sens.Spec.PPVNPVLR+LR−Sens.Spec.PPVNPVLR+LR−
SDAI 50%62.6% (1469/2347)0.850.540.580.831.850.280.970.420.180.991.680.07
SDAI 70%33.9% (796/2347)0.590.850.750.744.000.480.840.730.290.973.070.23
SDAI 85%14.2% (333/2347)0.290.970.870.649.240.730.540.910.460.946.220.50
EULAR moderate†60.6% (753/1242)0.450.650.470.631.280.850.690.650.200.941.940.48
EULAR good†21.2% (263/1242)0.410.930.790.695.500.640.690.850.380.954.640.36
ACR20‡64.9% (1523/2347)0.820.480.540.781.560.380.910.390.170.971.480.24
ACR50‡36.8% (863/2347)0.600.800.700.733.040.500.810.690.260.962.630.27
ACR70‡16.8% (395/2347)0.330.960.850.667.590.700.590.890.420.945.260.46
  • Diagnostic test characteristics of responses at 3 months regarding the achievement of SDAI LDA (including REM) or SDAI REM at 6 months.

  • *Patients were excluded from the analysis if they were in SDAI LDA or REM already at baseline.

  • †EULAR response levels are based on the Disease Activity Score 28-ESR (DAS28-ESR). Due to the lack of ESR measurement in some trials, the numbers were smaller for this outcome.

  • ‡For trials not including ESR, the ACR response criterion was established by using C reactive protein only.

  • ACR, American College of Rheumatology; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; LR+/LR−, positive/negative likelihood ratios; PPV/NPV, positive predictive value/negative predictive value; SDAI, Simplified Disease Activity Index; Sens./Spec., sensitivity/specificity.