Table 1

Cumulative probabilities of flare within 6, 12 and 24 months after attaining a state of inactive disease for different JIA categories

		Probability of flare after attaining inactive disease (95% CI)
	N*	Within 6 months		Within 12 months		Within 24 months
	N*	Any flare	Significant flare	Any flare	Significant flare	Any flare	Significant flare
Whole cohort	1146	0.254 (0.229 to 0.282)	0.154 (0.133 to 0.178)	0.425 (0.394 to 0.456)	0.266 (0.240 to 0.295)	0.603 (0.570 to 0.636)	0.400 (0.368 to 0.434)
Systemic arthritis	68	0.268 (0.176 to 0.396)	0.127 (0.065 to 0.238)	0.387 (0.278 to 0.520)	0.179 (0.103 to 0.300)	0.486 (0.366 to 0.621)	0.222 (0.135 to 0.354)
Oligoarthritis persistent	457	0.226 (0.189 to 0.269	0.143 (0.113 to 180)	0.402 (0.356 to 0.451)	0.279 (0.238 to 0.325)	0.594 (0.542 to 0.646)	0.412 (0.362 to 0.466)
Oligoarthritis extended	31	0.337 (0.192 to 0.549)	0.226 (0.108 to 0.435)	0.415 (0.255 to 0.624)	0.269 (0.138 to 0.484)	0.537 (0.343 to 0.757)	0.467 (0.268 to 0.717)
RF-negative polyarthritis	212	0.251 (0.196 to 0.319)	0.163 (0.117 to 0.224)	0.445 (0.376 to 0.521)	0.263 (0.205 to 0.334)	0.618 (0.542 to 0.694)	0.390 (0.318 to 0.471)
RF-positive polyarthritis	35	0.389 (0.242 to 0.583)	0.192 (0.091 to 0.379)	0.598 (0.429 to 0.772)	0.329 (0.192 to 0.526)	0.770 (0.595 to 0.908)	0.515 (0.338 to 0.719)
Psoriatic arthritis	75	0.266 (0.174 to 0.393)	0.171 (0.098 to 0.287)	0.432 (0.319 to 0.564)	0.253 (0.163 to 0.380)	0.609 (0.483 to 0.738)	0.408 (0.292 to 0.549)
ERA	155	0.259 (0.192 to 0.345)	0.126 (0.079 to 0.197)	0.429 (0.347 to 0.522)	0.237 (0.171 to 0.323)	0.628 (0.532 to 0.725)	0.394 (0.306 to 0.497)
Undifferentiated arthritis	113	0.290 (0.213 to 0.388)	0.194 (0.129 to 0.284)	0.444 (0.353 to 0.547)	0.297 (0.218 to 0.397)	0.617 (0.515 to 0.720)	0.429 (0.333 to 0.540)

*Number of subjects who attained inactive disease.
ERA, enthesitis-related arthritis; JIA, juvenile idiopathic arthritis; RF, rheumatoid factor.