Table 2

Predictors of overall disease progression as determined by univariate and multivariate analysis

Baseline characteristicsUnivariate analysisMultivariate analysis
p ValueHR (95% CI)p ValueHR (95% CI)
Age (years)0.0970.99 (0.98 to 1.01)NANA
Women (n=1079)0.0740.79 (0.64 to 1.01)NANA
Time since diagnosis (years)0.4010.96 (0.89 to 1.05)NANA
Joint synovitis (n=234)<0.0011.43 (1.17 to 1.74)0.0391.26 (1.01 to 1.59)
TFRs (n=166)<0.0011.61 (1.29 to 2.01)0.0301.32 (1.03 to 1.70)
Diffuse cutaneous subset (n=500)<0.0011.58 (1.33 to 1.88)0.0141.30 (1.05 to 1.61)
mRSS >14 (n=382)<0.0011.54 (1.29 to 1.82)–*
Lung fibrosis (n=361)0.2501.11 (0.93 to 1.34)NANA
Positive for antitopoisomerase-I antibodies (n=457)<0.0011.48 (1.25 to 1.75)0.0291.25 (1.02 to 1.53)
Increased CK levels (n=147)0.0151.35 (1.06 to 1.72)0.7031.06 (0.79 to 1.41)
Elevated acute phase reactants (n=311)0.6381.05 (0.87 to 1.26)NANA
Muscle weakness (n=330)0.0061.30 (1.08 to 1.57)0.5501.07 (0.86 to 1.34)
FVC <75% predicted (n=305)<0.0011.46 (1.22 to 1.76)0.0701.22 (0.98 to 1.50)
DLCO <75% predicted (n=490)<0.0011.41 (1.19 to 1.67)–†
  • Age, sex, time since diagnosis, cutaneous subset, lung fibrosis, reduced DLCO and acute phase reactants were systematically assessed as covariates in univariate analysis, together with joint synovitis and TFRs. This table also mentions all other variables that have been identified as predictors in univariate analysis.

  • *Variable not entered in the multivariate model since it has a high association with the diffuse cutaneous subset (Cramer's V=0.66).

  • †Variable not entered in the multivariate model since it has a high association with FVC<75% predicted (Cramer's V=0.53).

  • CK, creatine kinase; FVC, forced vital capacity; mRSS, modified Rodnan Skin Score; NA, not applicable; TFRs, tendon friction rubs.