Table 4

Predictors of vascular progression as determined by univariate and multivariate analyses

Baseline characteristicsUnivariate analysisMultivariate analysis
p ValueHR (95% CI)p ValueHR (95% CI)
New digital ulcers
 Age (years)0.0920.99 (0.98 to 1.01)NANA
 Women (n=1077)0.8211.04 (0.72 to 1.50)NANA
 Time since diagnosis (years)0.5470.96 (0.85 to 1.09)NANA
 Joint synovitis (n=233)<0.0011.68 (1.15 to 2.34)0.0031.45 (1.08 to 1.96)
 TFRs (n=166)0.0031.65 (1.09 to 2.51)0.2931.23 (0.84 to 1.80)
 Diffuse cutaneous subset (n=497)<0.0011.76 (1.33 to 2.31)0.1081.30 (0.94 to 1.78)
 mRSS >14 (n=380)0.00021.64 (1.26 to 2.14)–*
 Lung fibrosis (n=360)0.0831.35 (0.97 to 1.78)NANA
 Positive for antitopoisomerase-I antibodies (n=456)<0.0011.96 (1.49 to 2.58)0.0021.76 (1.30 to 2.40)
 Elevated acute phase reactants (n=311)0.941.01 (0.75 to 1.36)NANA
 History of digital ulcers (n=364)<0.0013.01 (1.28 to 4.57)0.0011.99 (1.51 to 2.64)
 FVC <75% predicted (n=304)<0.0011.65 (1.09 to 2.51)0.2341.21 (0.88 to 1.67)
 DLCO <75% predicted (n=488)0.2321.18 (0.90 to 1.54)NANA
Reduction of LVEF
 Age (years)0.5471.00 (0.98 to 1.03)NANA
 Women (n=994)0.0630.41 (0.20 to 1.00)NANA
 Time since diagnosis (years)0.4930.89 (0.65 to 1.22)NANA
 Joint synovitis (n=205)0.0042.64 (1.08 to 6.44)0.012.20 (1.06 to 4.57)
 Diffuse cutaneous subset (n=448)0.0022.82 (1.42 to 5.59)0.31.59 (0.72 to 3.52)
 Lung fibrosis (n=330)<0.0013.11 (1.56 to 6.67)0.042.21 (1.09 to 4.47)
 Muscle weakness (n=299)0.0012.84 (1.26 to 6.43)0.042.25 (1.08 to 4.56)
 History of digital ulcers (n=341)0.0321.75 (1.02 to 3.59)0.31.50 (0.75 to 3.00)
 Positive for antitopoisomerase-I antibodies (n=439)0.0022.71 (1.34 to 5.48)0.51.36 (0.62 to 2.97)
 Elevated acute phase reactants (n=257)0.2091.56 (0.78 to 3.11)NANA
 DLCO <75% predicted (n=422)0.3961.34 (0.68 to 2.63)NANA
  • Age, sex, time since diagnosis, cutaneous subset, lung fibrosis, reduced DLCO and acute phase reactants were systematically assessed as covariates in univariate analysis, together with joint synovitis and TFRs. This table also mentions all other variables that have been identified as predictors in univariate analysis.

  • *Variable not entered in the multivariate model since it has a high association with the diffuse cutaneous subset (Cramer's V=0.66).

  • FVC, forced vital capacity; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; mRSS, modified Rodnan Skin Score; NA, not applicable; TFRs, tendon friction rubs.