Dependent and independent variables | Univariate analyses† | Multivariate analyses† | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
OR (95% CI) | p Value | OR (95% CI) | p Value | |
Active disease or on medication at 30 years‡ | ||||
Oligoarticular onset§ | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.8) | 0.008 | ||
Polyarticular course¶ | 4.8 (2.4 to 9.4) | <0.001 | ||
HLA-DRB1*01 positive | 2.7 (1.2 to 5.7) | 0.012 | 8.5 (2.6 to 28.1) | <0.001 |
PGA at 15 years | 8.0 (4.2 to 15.4) | <0.001 | 5.7 (2.7 to12.2) | <0.001 |
Having active joints at 15 years | 8.0 (3.8 to 17.0) | <0.001 | ||
Having joints with LROM at 15 years | 6.9 (3.4 to 14.1) | <0.001 | ||
ESR >15 mm/h at 15 years | 4.0 (1.8 to 8.8) | <0.001 | ||
CRP >5 mg/L at 15 years | 3.3 (1.7 to 6.5) | 0.001 | ||
Patient's global ≥3 at 15 years | 5.4 (2.4 to 12.1) | <0.001 | ||
HAQ >0 at 15 years | 5.1 (2.7 to 10.0) | <0.001 | ||
Total time in remission <8 years at 15-year follow-up | 14.7 (6.6 to 32.6) | <0.001 | 7.9 (2.8 to 22.6) | <0.001 |
A high symptom state at 30 years (JADAS3 > 4.5)** | ||||
Oligoarticular onset§ | 0.3 (0.2 to 0.7) | 0.002 | ||
Polyarticular course¶ | 3.5 (1.7 to 7.3) | 0.001 | ||
PGA at 15 years | 2.4 (1.7 to 3.5) | <0.001 | 2.4 (1.7 to 3.5) | <0.001 |
Having active joints at 15 years | 7.8 (1.9 to 7.6) | <0.001 | ||
Having joints with LROM at 15 years | 4.5 (2.1 to 9.9) | <0.001 | ||
ESR >15 mm/h at 15 years | 2.4 (1.1 to 5.0) | 0.024 | ||
CRP >5 mg/L at 15 years | 1.9 (1.0 to 3.8) | 0.063 | ||
Patient's global ≥3 at 15 years | 3.0 (1.4 to 6.3) | 0.004 | ||
HAQ >0 at 15 years | 2.7 (1.4 to 5.2) | 0.004 | ||
Total time in remission <8 years at 15-year follow-up | 4.7 (2.2 to 9.9) | <0.001 |
†Logistical regression analyses.
‡Nagelkerke R²=63%.
§Oligoarticular onset: ≤4 active joints first 6 months, from all JIA categories except polyarticular JIA.
¶Polyarticular course: having in total ≥5 active joints after 6 months of disease, from all JIA categories except persistent oligoarticular JIA.
**Nagelkerke R²=21%.
CRP, C reactive protein; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, health assessment questionnaire; JADAS3, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score, clinical version; JIA, juvenile idiopathic arthritis; LROM, limited range of motion; PGA, physician's global assessment of disease activity.
Age at onset, gender, DR4, DR5, DR6, DR8, DP2, duration of symptoms and ESR at baseline were not associated with disease activity in the univariate analyses. ILAR category, HLA-B27, DP3, polyarticular onset and not being in remission at 15 years were associated with disease activity but correlated highly with other chosen variables.