Table 3

Predictors of persistent disease activity and a high symptom state at 30-year follow-up

Dependent and independent variablesUnivariate analyses†Multivariate analyses†
OR (95% CI)p ValueOR (95% CI)p Value
Active disease or on medication at 30 years‡
 Oligoarticular onset§0.4 (0.2 to 0.8)0.008
 Polyarticular course¶4.8 (2.4 to 9.4)<0.001
 HLA-DRB1*01 positive2.7 (1.2 to 5.7)0.0128.5 (2.6 to 28.1)<0.001
 PGA at 15 years8.0 (4.2 to 15.4)<0.0015.7 (2.7 to12.2)<0.001
 Having active joints at 15 years8.0 (3.8 to 17.0)<0.001
 Having joints with LROM at 15 years6.9 (3.4 to 14.1)<0.001
 ESR >15 mm/h at 15 years4.0 (1.8 to 8.8)<0.001
 CRP >5 mg/L at 15 years3.3 (1.7 to 6.5)0.001
 Patient's global ≥3 at 15 years5.4 (2.4 to 12.1)<0.001
 HAQ >0 at 15 years5.1 (2.7 to 10.0)<0.001
 Total time in remission <8 years at 15-year follow-up14.7 (6.6 to 32.6)<0.0017.9 (2.8 to 22.6)<0.001
A high symptom state at 30 years (JADAS3 > 4.5)**
 Oligoarticular onset§0.3 (0.2 to 0.7)0.002
 Polyarticular course¶3.5 (1.7 to 7.3)0.001
 PGA at 15 years2.4 (1.7 to 3.5)<0.0012.4 (1.7 to 3.5)<0.001
 Having active joints at 15 years7.8 (1.9 to 7.6)<0.001
 Having joints with LROM at 15 years4.5 (2.1 to 9.9)<0.001
 ESR >15 mm/h at 15 years2.4 (1.1 to 5.0)0.024
 CRP >5 mg/L at 15 years1.9 (1.0 to 3.8)0.063
 Patient's global ≥3 at 15 years3.0 (1.4 to 6.3)0.004
 HAQ >0 at 15 years2.7 (1.4 to 5.2)0.004
 Total time in remission <8 years at 15-year follow-up4.7 (2.2 to 9.9)<0.001
  • †Logistical regression analyses.

  • ‡Nagelkerke R²=63%.

  • §Oligoarticular onset: ≤4 active joints first 6 months, from all JIA categories except polyarticular JIA.

  • ¶Polyarticular course: having in total ≥5 active joints after 6 months of disease, from all JIA categories except persistent oligoarticular JIA.

  • **Nagelkerke R²=21%.

  • CRP, C reactive protein; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, health assessment questionnaire; JADAS3, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score, clinical version; JIA, juvenile idiopathic arthritis; LROM, limited range of motion; PGA, physician's global assessment of disease activity.

  • Age at onset, gender, DR4, DR5, DR6, DR8, DP2, duration of symptoms and ESR at baseline were not associated with disease activity in the univariate analyses. ILAR category, HLA-B27, DP3, polyarticular onset and not being in remission at 15 years were associated with disease activity but correlated highly with other chosen variables.