Results of multivariable Cox regression models of time to progression to inflammatory arthritis during up to 69 months of follow-up; scores for each predictor were derived from the regression coefficients, rounded to nearest 0.5 then multiplied by 2, to give a total risk score ranging from 0 to 5
| Multivariable Cox regression predictors | Excluding outliers | All subjects | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | B: score | |
| PD model | n=98 | n=100 | |
| Tenderness of small joints present | 1.39 (0.77 to 2.53), p=0.277 | 1.56 (0.87 to 2.81) | 0.44: 1 |
| EMS ≥30 min | 1.85 (1.02 to 3.35), p=0.043 | 1.75 (0.97 to 3.16) | 0.55: 1 |
| High level RF and/or anti-CCP | 4.52 (1.07 to 19.15), p=0.040 | 1.83 (0.98 to 3.42) | 0.82: 2 |
| PD present | 1.84 (1.04 to 3.27), p=0.037 | 1.51 (0.83 to 2.74) | 0.56: 1 |
| SE model | n=90 | n=92 | |
| Tenderness of small joints present | 1.54 (0.83 to 2.87), p=0.173 | 1.68 (0.91 to 3.11) | 0.52: 1 |
| EMS ≥30 min | 1.61 (0.86 to 3.00), p=0.135 | 1.54 (0.84 to 2.84) | 0.43: 1 |
| High level RF and/or anti-CCP | 3.40 (0.77 to 14.96), p=0.105 | 1.68 (0.57 to 5.00) | 0.52: 1 |
| Shared epitope present | 1.58 (0.72 to 3.49), p=0.257 | 1.87 (0.84 to 4.14) | 0.62: 1 |
| PD+SE model | n=90 | n=92 | |
| Tenderness of small joints present | 1.54 (0.82 to 2.88), p=0.178 | 1.69 (0.91 to 3.13) | 0.52: 1 |
| EMS ≥30 min | 1.56 (0.83 to 2.92), p=0.167 | 1.49 (0.81 to 2.77) | 0.40: 1 |
| High level RF and/or anti-CCP | 3.04 (0.68 to 13.6), p=0.147 | 1.47 (0.48 to 4.47) | 0.38: 1 |
| PD present | 1.92 (1.06 to 3.50), p=0.033 | 1.89 (0.84 to 4.24) | 0.63: 1 |
| Shared epitope present | 1.57 (0.70 to 3.49), p=0.272 | 1.84 (1.02 to 3.32) | 0.61: 1 |
| Model without PD or SE | n=98 | n=100 | |
| Tenderness of small joints present | 1.42 (0.78 to 2.57), p=0.252 | 1.56 (0.87 to 2.81) | 0.44: 1 |
| EMS ≥30 min | 1.86 (1.03 to 3.37), p=0.039 | 1.75 (0.98 to 3.13) | 0.56: 1 |
| High level RF and/or anti-CCP | 4.86 (1.16 to 20.43), p=0.031 | 2.46 (0.87 to 6.99) | 0.90: 2 |
anti-CCP, anticyclic citrullinated peptide; B, regression coefficient; EMS, early morning stiffness; PD, power Doppler; RF, rheumatoid factor; SE, shared epitope.