Predictors of radiographic progression at 1 year follow-up of the SWEFOT trial using SHS score increase >1 as cut-off *
| All patients | Patients in multivariate model | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR (95% CI)† | |
| Number | 311 | 269 | 269 |
| Number with SvdH score increase >1 | 136 | 118 | 118 |
| Demographic | |||
| Male | 1.38 (0.84 to 2.26) | 1.58 (0.92 to 2.70) | 1.44 (0.82 to 2.53) |
| Age (per 10 years increase) | 1.17 (0.99 to 1.38) | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.41) | 1.12 (0.93 to 1.36) |
| Symptom duration (per month←) | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) | 1.03 (0.96 to 1.11) | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.09) |
| Smoking habits | |||
| Current vs never smokers | 2.20 (1.17 to 4.12) | 2.34 (1.24 to 4.42) | 2.31 (1.18 to 4.54) |
| Past vs never smokers | 0.84 (0.48 to 1.47) | 0.88 (0.50 to 1.55) | 0.92 (0.52 to 1.65) |
| Current smokers vs non-smokers | 2.39 (1.35 to 4.22) | 2.49 (1.40 to 4.42) | 2.42 (1.33 to 4.42) |
| Baseline disease parameters‡ | |||
| RF positive | 1.75 (1.07 to 2.86) | 1.83 (1.08 to 3.10) | 1.59 (0.90 to 2.79) |
| Anti-CCP antibody positive | 1.64 (1.02 to 2.64) | 1.80 (1.07 to 3.01) | 1.38 (0.79 to 2.39) |
| RF and/or anti-CCP positive§ | 1.50 (1.12 to 2.02) | 1.60 (1.16 to 2.22) | 1.38 (0.98 to 1.95) |
| Erosions | 2.39 (1.50 to 3.80) | 2.72 (1.65 to 4.49) | 2.60 (1.55 to 4.38) |
| Concurrent prednisolone use | 1.07 (0.56 to 2.06) | 1.09 (0.53 to 2.22) | 1.08 (0.50 to 2.33) |
| DAS28 (per unit increase) | 1.13 (0.91 to 1.40) | 1.06 (0.84 to 1.34) | 1.10 (0.86 to 1.41) |
| Swollen joint count (<10, 10–17, >17) | 0.96 (0.66 to 1.41) | 0.94 (0.62 to 1.43) | 1.06 (0.68 to 1.64) |
| Tender joint count (per 10 increase) | 0.83 (0.57 to 1.22) | 0.75 (0.50 to 1.14) | 0.81 (0.52 to 1.26) |
| CRP (<10, 10–35 vs >35 mg/dL) | 1.43 (1.07 to 1.92) | 1.42 (1.04 to 1.94) | 1.30 (0.92 to 1.82) |
| ESR (<21, 21–50, >50 mm/h) | 1.65 (1.29 to 2.28) | 1.64 (1.15 to 2.33) | 1.63 (1.12 to 2.37) |
| VAS–global health (per 10 increase) | 1.03 (0.94 to 1.14) | 1.01 (0.91 to 1.11) | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.11) |
| HAQ (per unit increase) | 1.12 (0.79 to 1.60) | 1.00 (0.68 to 1.45) | 0.93 (0.62 to 1.40) |
| HLA-DRB1 shared epitope positive | 1.47 (0.85 to 2.53) | 1.32 (0.74 to 2.36) | 1.07 (0.58 to 1.98) |
*Association between each parameter and the odds of having a rapid radiographic progression after 1 year (yes/no), calculated by logistic regression and expressed as ORs with 95% CIs. ORs for dichotomised variables are calculated for being positive, and for continuous variables per unit (DAS28, HAQ) or per 10 increase (age, VAS–global health), while CRP and ESR was grouped as in previous reports which corresponded to tertiles, and symptom duration per month increase.
†Adjusted for gender symptom duration, current smoking, baseline erosions and HAQ.
‡As high co-linearity was observed for anti-CCP and RF status, and also HAQ score and DAS28 and its components, only anti-CCP status and HAQ were kept in the model, and excluded when RF status or DAS28 and its components, respectively, were analysed.
§Three group comparison, double positive (2), single positive (1), no positive (0).
Abbreviations and numbers of missing as in table 1.
Anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; CRP, C-reactive protein; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; RF, rheumatoid factor; SHS, Sharp–van der Heijde.