Prediction models of progressive skin fibrosis (multivariate analysis)
| Model | Included prediction markers | Prediction success (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joint synovitis | 20/122 (16.4) |
| 2 | Disease duration | 22/126 (17.5) |
| 3 | Joint synovitis, disease duration | 9/31 (29.0) |
| 4 | Joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender | 9/25 (36.0) |
| 5 | Joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender, oesophageal symptoms | 9/25 (36.0) |
| 6 | MRSS at baseline | 52/412 (12.6) |
| 7 | MRSS at baseline, joint synovitis | 18/88 (20.5) |
| 8 | MRSS at baseline, disease duration | 20/84 (23.8) |
| 9 | MRSS at baseline, joint synovitis, disease duration | 8/22 (36.4) |
| 10 | MRSS at baseline, joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender | 8/18 (44.4) |
| 11 | MRSS at baseline, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender | 17/61 (27.9) |
| 12 | MRSS at baseline, oesophageal symptoms, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender | 6/23 (26.1) |
| 13 | MRSS at baseline, oesophageal symptoms, joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender | 8/18 (44.4) |
| 14 | MRSS at baseline, oesophageal symptoms, joint synovitis, disease duration | 8/22 (36.4) |
| 15 | MRSS at baseline, oesophageal symptoms, joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender, CK elevation, interaction between CK elevation and short disease duration | 8/19 (42.1) |
| 16 | MRSS at baseline, joint synovitis, disease duration, gender, interaction between short disease duration and gender, CK elevation, interaction between CK elevation and short disease duration | 8/19 (42.1) |
| 17 | MRSS at baseline, joint synovitis, disease duration, CK elevation, interaction between CK elevation and short disease duration | 6/17 (35.3) |
CK, creatine kinase; MRSS, modified Rodnan skin score.