Table 3

Multivariable-adjusted risk of X-ray progression at 1 and 2 years of follow-up by baseline and 12/24-week change in MRI scores of synovitis, bone oedema and bone erosion (risk per 1 unit difference or difference in change in respective RAMRIS score)

	X-ray progression week 52 (n=206–226)		X-ray progression week 104 (n=191–210)
Baseline and 12-week change	OR (95% CI)	p Value	OR (95% CI)	p Value
Model 1*
Baseline synovitis	1.07 (0.99 to 1.16)	0.09	1.09 (0.98 to 1.18)	0.08
Δ Synovitis wk 0–12	1.13 (0.99 to 1.27)	0.06	1.17 (1.01 to 1.36)	0.04
	(AUC 0.69)		(AUC 0.77)
Model 2*
Baseline bone oedema	1.04 (1.00 to 1.09)	0.04	1.06 (1.01 to 1.11)	0.02
Δ Bone oedema wk 0–12	1.12 (1.04 to 1.22)	0.005	1.05 (0.97 to 1.14)	0.2
	(AUC 0.70)		(AUC 0.77)
Model 3*
Ln (Baseline bone erosion)	1.26 (0.75 to 2.13)	0.4	1.02 (0.53 to 1.95)	0.1
Δ Bone erosion >0.5 Wk 0–12	2.38 (1.16 to 4.90)	0.02	3.68 (1.65 to 8.19)	0.001
	(AUC 0.69)		(AUC 0.80)

	X-ray progression week 52 (n=216 to 234)		X-ray progression week 104 (n=202 to 219)
Baseline and 24-week change	OR (95% CI)	p Value	OR (95% CI)	p Value

Model 4*
Baseline synovitis	1.14 (1.04 to 1.24)	0.003	1.11 (1.01 to 1.21)	0.02
Δ Synovitis wk 0–24	1.19 (1.06 to 1.33)	0.003	1.22 (1.07 to 1.38)	0.002
	(AUC 0.71)		(AUC 0.79)
Model 5*
Baseline bone oedema	1.05 (1.01 to 1.09)	0.02	1.06 (1.02 to 1.11)	0.007
Δ Bone oedema wk 0–24	1.12 (1.05 to 1.20)	0.001	1.06 (0.99 to 1.14)	0.07
	(AUC 0.70)		(AUC 0.75)
Model 6*
Ln (baseline bone erosion)	1.11 (0.66 to 1.86)	0.7	0.99 (0.52 to 1.89)	0.9
Δ Bone erosion >0.5 wk 0–24	2.92 (1.45 to 5.91)	0.003	4.52 (2.10 to 9.76)	<0.001
	(AUC 0.68)		(AUC 0.79)

*Adjusted for age, sex, DAS28 (CRP) at baseline, change in DAS28 (CRP) over the first 12/24 weeks, vdHS score at baseline, and treatment group.
Δ, change; AUC, Area Under the Curve; CRP, C-reactive protein; DAS28(CRP), Disease Activity Score 28 with C-Reactive Protein; vdHS, van der Heijde–Sharp; ‘Progression’, change in vdHS >0.5.