Multivariate analysis of predictors for arthritis development
| Variable | B | HR (95% CI) | B CV | HR (95% CI) CV | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDR with RA | 0.43 | 1.53 (1.04 to 2.26) | 0.44 | 1.55 (1.24 to 1.96) | 1 |
| No alcohol | 0.37 | 1.45 (0.97 to 2.17) | 0.38 | 1.46 (1.20 to 1.79) | 1 |
| Duration of symptoms <12 months | 0.54 | 1.72 (1.18 to 2.52) | 0.54 | 1.72 (1.39 to 2.15) | 1 |
| Intermittent symptoms present | 0.55 | 1.74 (1.20 to 2.51) | 0.56 | 1.75 (1.41 to 2.16) | 1 |
| Location in upper and lower extremities | 0.32 | 1.37 (0.95 to 1.99) | 0.32 | 1.37 (1.12 to 1.68) | 1 |
| VAS pain≥50 | 0.82 | 2.28 (1.57 to 3.30) | 0.83 | 2.29 (1.85 to 2.85) | 2 |
| Morning stiffness≥1 h present | 0.50 | 1.65 (1.07 to 2.54) | 0.51 | 1.67 (1.29 to 2.15) | 1 |
| Swollen joint(s) reported* | 0.57 | 1.77 (1.24 to 2.53) | 0.58 | 1.78 (1.46 to 2.20) | 1 |
| Antibody status | |||||
| IgM-RF positive, aCCP negative | 0 | ||||
| aCCP low positive, IgM-RF negative† | 1.00 | 2.71 (1.31 to 5.64) | 1.00 | 2.71 (1.89 to 4.01) | 2 |
| aCCP high positive, IgM-RF negative‡ | 1.58 | 4.85 (2.46 to 9.58) | 1.60 | 4.95 (3.53 to 7.21) | 3 |
| aCCP and RF positive | 1.94 | 6.94 (3.68 to 13.07) | 1.96 | 7.09 (5.20 to 10.28) | 4 |
*Presence of a swollen joint as noticed by the patient, but not verified by a rheumatologist.
†aCCP low positive: ≥1× cut-off <3× cut-off.
‡aCCP high positive ≥3× cut-off.
aCCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies; B: Regression coefficient; CV: cross validation; FDR, First Degree Relative; IgM-RF, IgM rheumatoid factor; VAS, visual analogue scale; for other abbreviations see table 1.