AUC values of ROC curves and Harrell's C
| Harrell's C | AUC at 1 year | AUC at 3 years | AUC at 5 years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction model | 0.79 (0.74 to 0.84) | 0.81 (0.76 to 0.87) | 0.83 (0.78 to 0.88) | 0.82 (0.74 to 0.89) |
| Cross validation | 0.77 (0.68 to 0.85) | 0.79 (0.67 to 0.89) | 0.80 (0.67 to 0.90) | 0.79 (0.60 to 0.94) |
| Prediction rule | 0.78 (0.73 to 0.84) | 0.81 (0.76 to 0.86) | 0.83 (0.78 to 0.88) | 0.82 (0.75 to 0.89) |
| Smaller prediction model* | 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) | 0.80 (0.75 to 0.86) | 0.81 (0.76 to 0.87) | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) |
| Prediction model 2010 RA criteria | 0.79 (0.74 to 0.85) | 0.82 (0.77 to 0.87) | 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) | 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90) |
| Prediction model 1987 RA criteria | 0.77 (0.69 to 0.85) | 0.80 (0.72 to 0.88) | 0.81 (0.74 to 0.88) | 0.81 (0.72 to 0.90) |
*Prediction model created with p removal 0.05.
AUC: area under the curve; RA, rheumatoid arthritis; ROC: receiver operating characteristic. Values are presented with the 95% CI between brackets.