Table 2

Baseline predictors of time to occurrence of sustained doubling of serum creatinine and renal relapse

Univariate analysisMultivariate analysis
HR (95% CI)p ValueHR (95% CI)p Value
Time to occurrence of sustained doubling of serum creatinine
 Treatment (AZA/MP vs CY)2.099 (0.592 to 7.444)0.251
 Gender (male vs female)1.900 (0.403 to 8.966)0.417
 Caucasian (no vs yes)3.864 (1.117 to 13.367)0.0333.864 (1.117–13.367)0.033
 Age (years)1.013 (0.959 to 1.070)0.648
 Duration of SLE (years)0.989 (0.881 to 1.110)0.846
 LN presenting symptom (yes vs no)0.360 (0.076 to 1.694)0.360
 Hypertension (present vs absent)0.777 (0.165 to 3.669)0.777
 C3 (% of lowest normal)§0.995 (0.971 to 1.019)0.681
 C4 (% of lowest normal)§0.999 (0.990 to 1.008)0.814
 Anti-dsDNA (positive vs negative)0.478 (0.004 to 154431)0.478
 Serum creatinine§1.006 (1.000 to 1.012)0.036*
 Proteinuria§0.990 (0.787 to 1.245)0.930
 CI§1.024 (0.609 to 1.721)0.930
 AI§0.942 (0.781 to 1.136)0.533
Time to occurrence of renal relapse
 Treatment (AZA/MP vs CY)4.623 (1.662 to 12.860)0.0034.556 (1.638 to 12.669)0.004
 Gender (male vs female)3.031 (1.086 to 8.455)0.034*
 Caucasian (no vs yes)1.841 (0.699 to 4.846)0.217
 Age (years)1.012 (0.973 to 1.052)0.565
 Duration of SLE (years)0.839 (0.707 to 0.996)0.044*
 LN presenting symptom (yes vs no)2.230 (0.896 to 5.549)0.085*
 Hypertension (present vs absent)0.705 (0.234 to 2.131)0.536
 C3 (% of lowest normal)§1.006 (0.989 to 1.023)0.484
 C4 (% of lowest normal)§0.998 (0.992 to 1.005)0.601
 Anti-dsDNA (positive vs negative)0.363 (0.120 to 1.096)0.072*
 Serum creatinine§1.000 (0.993 to 1.007)0.961
 Proteinuria§1.110 (0.953 to 1.293)0.179*
 CI§0.898 (0.606 to 1.332)0.593
 AI§0.974 (0.853 to 1.111)0.692
  • HR refers to the risk of occurrence of sustained doubling of serum creatinine and renal relapse.

  • * The variable was not selected during multivariate Cox regression analysis.

  • The variable was not tested in multivariate Cox regression analysis because of a p value >0.2 in univariate Cox regression analysis.

  • per year.

  • § per 1 grade or 1 point.

  • AI, activity index; anti-dsDNA, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies; AZA/MP, azathioprine/methylprednisolone; C3, complement factor 3; C4, complement factor 4; CI, chronicity index; CY, cyclophosphamide; HR, hazard ratio; LN, lupus nephritis; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus.