Table 3

Predictive value of baseline to 2-year change in laboratory and renal biopsy parameters

Univariate analysisMultivariate analysis
HR/B (95% CI)p ValueHR/B (95% CI)p Value
Time to occurrence of renal relapse (after 2 years)
 Δ C3 (% of lowest normal)1.019 (1.004 to 1.035)0.013*
 Δ C4 (% of lowest normal)1.002 (0.997 to 1.007)0.412
 Δ anti-dsDNA0.993 (0.985 to 1.001)0.075*
 Δ serum creatinine0.981 (0.964 to 1.000)0.047*
 Δ proteinuria1.005 (0.821 to 1.232)0.959
 Δ CI (n=39)1.027 (0.727 to 1.451)0.881
 Δ AI (n=39)0.845 (0.711 to 1.005)0.0560.733 (0.545 to 0.985)0.039
Serum creatinine at last follow-up
 Δ C3 (% of lowest normal)0.001 (0.000 to 0.002)0.030*
 Δ C4 (% of lowest normal)−0.000 (−0.001 to 0.000)0.865
 Δ anti-dsDNA−0.000 (−0.000 to 0.000)0.070*
 Δ serum creatinine0.000 (−0.001 to 0.000)0.397
 Δ proteinuria−0.019 (−0.035 to −0.003)0.020−0.024 (−0.043 to −0.004)0.017
 Δ CI (n=39)−0.001 (−0.034 to 0.033)0.962
 Δ AI (n=39)−0.007 (−0.021 to 0.008)0.363
Proteinuria at last follow-up
 Δ C3 (% of lowest normal)0.000 (−0.002 to 0.002)0.773
 Δ C4 (% of lowest normal)0.000 (−0.001 to 0.001)0.893
 Δ anti-dsDNA0.000 (−0.000 to 0.000)0.189*
 Δ serum creatinine0.000 (−0.002 to 0.002)0.917
 Δ proteinuria−0.002 (−0.030 to 0.027)0.911
 Δ CI (n=39)0.088 (−0.011 to 0.187)0.081*
 Δ AI (n=39)−0.043 (−0.086 to 0.000)0.051*
  • HR (hazard ratio) refers to the risk of occurrence of renal relapse: per 1 grade or 1 point.

  • B (regression coefficient) refers to the influence on serum creatinine and proteinuria at last follow-up: per 1 grade or 1 point.

  • Δ baseline to 2-year change.

  • * The variable was not selected during multivariate Cox or linear regression analysis.

  • The variable was not tested in multivariate Cox or linear regression analysis because of a p value >0.2 in univariate Cox or linear regression analysis.

  • AI, activity index; anti-dsDNA, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies; C3, complement factor 3; C4, complement factor 4; CI, chronicity index.