Table 3

Odds of developing rOA according to KL grade, gender and presence or absence of other joint complaints for an average subject with knee pain in the total eligible population

Risk of rOA development
Baseline variablenrOA by T1, % (95% CI)rOA by T2, % (95% CI)rOA at T1 or T2, % (95% CI)No rOA T1 and T2, % (95% CI)
Risk total eligible population9446.1 (4.3 to 8.2)9.9 (7.3 to 13.0)16.0 (12.5 to 20.1)84.0 (79.9 to 87.5)
KL grade 05855.1 (3.5 to 7.0)8.4 (6.1 to 11.3)13.5 (10.2 to 17.4)86.5 (82.6 to 89.8)
KL grade 135927.1 (20.9 to 33.8)25.1 (19.5 to 31.0)52.2 (44.3 to 60.0)47.8 (40.0 to 55.7))
Male gender3254.1 (2.3 to 6.4)7.0 (4.3 to 10.4)11.1 (6.9 to 16.3)88.9 (83.7 to 93.1)
Female gender6197.6 (5.3 to 10.5)11.9 (8.6 to 15.6)19.5 (14.9 to 24.6)80.5 (75.4 to 85.1)
No general joint complaints1764.4 (2.3 to 7.4)7.5 (4.3 to 11.7)11.9 (6.8 to 18.5)88.1 (81.5 to 93.2)
General joint complaints*7687.1 (5.0 to 9.6)11.2 (8.2 to 14.7)18.3 (14.2 to 22.9)81.7 (77.1 to 85.8)
  • Significant risk factors are printed in bold.

  • * Combined score of other joint complaints of pain in arm, neck, shoulder, elbow, low back, hip, knee and foot.

  • KL, Kellgren and Lawrence; rOA, radiological osteoarthritis.