Table 3

Progression from baseline to 9-year follow-up (%) in individuals with radiographic HOA at baseline

Men (n=187)Women (n=277)
Progression of HOA (change in summed KL score ≥1)91.4 (87.4 to 95.5)96.4 (94.2 to 98.6)
 DIP (2nd–5th) OA59.4 (52.3 to 66.4)78.3 (73.4 to 83.1)*
 PIP (2nd–5th) OA41.2 (34.1 to 48.2)57.0 (51.2 to 62.9)
 Thumb IP OA31.6 (24.9 to 38.2)39.7 (33.9 to 45.5)
 MCP (1st–5th) OA39.0 (32.0 to 46.0)24.5 (19.5 to 29.6)
 Thumb base OA64.8 (57.9 to 71.8)*70.7 (65.2 to 76.1)*
 Wrist OA3.2 (0.7 to 5.7)1.4 (0.0 to 2.8)
Change in total KL score (all hand joints)7.8 (6, 2–12)10.2 (9, 4–15)
Change in number of HOA joints (KLG≥2)5.0 (4, 2–8)6.4 (6, 3–9)
Number of joints with incident disease2.8 (2, 1–4)3.6 (3, 1–5)
Number or HOA joints with progression1.4 (1, 0–2)1.8 (1, 0–2)
Development of erosive HOA (≥1 joint(s))9.6 (5.2 to 13.9)17.3 (12.4 to 22.2)
Development of symptomatic HOA (≥1 joint(s))25.9 (19.1 to 32.8)33.7 (26.8 to 40.6)
  • Data presented as % (95% CI), except for changes in total KL score and number of affected joints presented as mean (median, interquartile range).

  • * One woman with max KL score for the DIP joints, 4 men and 10 women with max KL scores for the thumb base joints were excluded from analyses.

  • In subjects with non-erosive HOA at baseline (178 men, 231 women).

  • In subjects with non-symptomatic HOA at baseline (158 men, 181 women).

  • DIP, distal interphalangeal; HOA, hand osteoarthritis; IP, interphalangeal; KL, Kellgren and Lawrence; KLG, Kellgren–Lawrence grade; MCP, metacarpophalangeal; OA, osteoarthritis; PIP, proximal interphalangeal.