Table 3

Sensitivity, specificity, and PPV and NPV at the proposed cut‑points in UA patients

Sensitivity (95% CI)Specificity (95% CI)PPV (95% CI)NPV (95% CI)
methotrexate use
 ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria0.74 (0.65 to 0.82)0.66 (0.54 to 0.76)0.76 (0.67 to 0.83)0.63 (0.52 to 0.73)
 van der Helm algorithm0.10 (0.05 to 0.17)1.0 (0.95 to 1.0)1.0 (0.74 to 1.0)0.43 (0.35 to 0.50)
 Visser algorithm0.59 (0.50 to 0.68)0.93 (0.85 to 0.97)0.92 (0.84 to 0.97)0.62 (0.53 to 0.71)
Persistent disease
 ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria0.69 (0.61 to 0.76)0.72 (0.59 to 0.83)0.87 (0.80 to 0.92)0.46 (0.35 to 0.56)
 van der Helm algorithm0.08 (0.05 to 0.14)1.0 (0.93 to 1.0)1.0 (0.75 to 1.0)0.27 (0.21 to 0.34)
 Visser algorithm0.47 (0.39 to 0.55)0.93 (0.84 to 0.98)0.95 (0.87 to 0.99)0.40 (0.31 to 0.48)
  • ACR, American College of Rheumatology; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value, UA, undifferentiated arthritis.