Table 3

Predictors of target knee replacement—multivariate analyses

OR95% CIp Value*
Baseline predictors only
 Male1.1890.341 to 4.1490.786
 Age (years)1.0410.949 to 1.1420.396
 BMI (kg/m2)0.9920.893 to 1.1010.876
 WOMAC pain0.9680.916 to 1.0230.255
 Severe medial meniscal tear4.6241.236 to 17.2970.023
 Medial meniscal extrusion3.0730.914 to 10.3320.070
 BML medial plateau1.8081.077 to 3.0340.025
 JSW minimum (mm)0.7520.518 to 1.0930.136
Variables, baseline value and 2-year change
 Male1.6790.533 to 5.2850.376
 Age (years)1.0660.982 to 1.1580.128
 BMI (kg/m2), change at 2 years1.0420.788 to 1.3770.773
 WOMAC pain, change at 2 years1.0220.998 to 1.0450.069
 Severe medial meniscal tear, baseline5.3511.543 to 18.6290.008
 Medial meniscal extrusion, baseline3.8941.230 to 12.3260.021
 Medial compartment cartilage volume reduction of ≥8% at 2 years9.0620.943 to 87.0850.056
 JSW reduction of ≥7% at 2 years8.1640.893 to 74.6200.063
  • * Logistic regression to predict a knee (target) replacement.

  • BMI, body mass index; BML, bone marrow lesion; CI, confidence interval; JSW, joint space width; OR, odds ratio; WOMAC, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index.