Table 3

Final model of stepwise logistic regression analysis of predictive factors of the progression of mTSS at 6 and 12 months

6 Months (AUC 0.771)12 Months (AUC 0.780)
OR (95% CI)p ValueOR (95% CI)p Value
Anti-CCP positivity2.94 (1.88 to 4.59)<0.0014.14 (2.64 to 6.47)<0.001
Baseline mTSS > median2.56 (1.64 to 3.99)<0.0012.40 (1.56 to 3.68)<0.001
HLA-DRB1*01 or 04 ‘double dose’2.67 (1.30 to 5.50)0.0082.73 (1.34 to 5.57)0.008
HLA-DRB1*01 or 04 ‘single dose’1.86 (1.13 to 3.05)0.0141.67 (1.04 to 2.67)0.014
ESR > median2.04 (1.32 to 3.14)0.0012.13 (1.38 to 3.29)0.001
Season (winter and spring) vs (summer and autumn)1.66 (1.07 to 2.59)0.025
  • anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; AUC, area under the curve; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HLA, human leucocyte antigen; mTSS, modified total Sharp score.