Table 5 Predicting MTX failure
Predictor1 year2 years
MTX failStill onp ValueMTX failStill onp Value
Number of patients59 (25)231 (75)95188 (61)
Female gender n (%)45 (76)147 (64)0.0768 (72)117 (62)0.1
Age diagnosis (years)58.9 (45.4–70.5)59.3 (48.3–69)0.859.3 (52–68.2)58.7 (46.9–69.5)0.88
Age MTX onset (years)58.9 (47.8–71)60 (50.8–69.8)0.8259.9 (52.2–68.8)59.4 (49.1–70.5)0.95
Symptom duration prior to MTX (months)6.24 (3.6–13.18)6.27 (3.75–12.68)0.726.28 (3.64–13.04)6.09 (3.56–14.59)0.66
RF positive (yes/no)25 (45)94 (41)0.8440 (44)87 (46)0.95
ARA criteria (yes/no)27 (46)121 (52)0.3645 (47)101 (54)0.3
SJC5 (2–10)4 (1–11)0.765 (2–10)5 (1–11)0.79
TJC8 (2–15)5 (1–15)0.196 (1–16)5 (1–13)0.35
28 SJC3 (2–8)4 (1–9)0.893 (1–8)4 (1–9)0.83
28 TJC5 (1–9)3 (0–10)0.464 (0–9)4 (0–10)0.73
Baseline CRP*10 (2–26)13 (5–26)0.3810 (3–28)13 (5–26)0.86
Baseline DAS28*3.71 (3.1–4.9)3.9 (3.0–4.8)0.993.7 (3.1–4.9)4.0 (3.0–4.8)0.69
Baseline HAQ1.5 (0.625–2)1 (0.5–1.625)0.041.25 (0.625–1.875)1 (0.5–1.625)0.1
SE positive (yes/no)†40 (78)126 (64)0.0562 (74)99 (63)0.1
Steroids (yes/no)11 (18.6)39 (16.9)0.7528 (29)18 (10)0.001
  • ARA, American Rheumatism Association; CRP, C-reactive protein; DAS, disease activity score (using 28 joint counts); HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; MTX, methotrexate; RF, rheumatoid factor; SE, shared epitope; SJC, swollen joint count; TJC, tender joint count.

  • *293 patients had baseline CRP available and, therefore, could have DAS28 results calculated.

  • †260 patients had DNA samples and were successfully genotyped for SE.