Table 1 Associations between baseline variables and a subsequent chronic shoulder disorder
Chronic shoulder disorder at follow-up
All*Men*Women*
N of ref.N of casesOR (95% CI)pN of ref.N of casesOR (95% CI)pN of ref.N of casesOR (95% CI)p
Work-related physical exposures
Lifting heavy loads0.020.180.05
    No597371.0243201.0354171.0
    Yes207261.9 (1.1 to 3.3)100131.7 (0.8 to 3.5)107132.2 (1.0 to 4.8)
Working in awkward postures (twisted, bent or otherwise uncomfortable working position)0.020.130.07
    No565341.0241191.0324151.0
    Yes239291.9 (1.1 to 3.2)102141.8 (0.9 to 3.7)137152.0 (0.9 to 4.3)
Work involving vibration (whole-body vibration or the use of vibrating tools)0.010.010.18
    No440501.0291221.0453281.0
    Yes60132.7 (1.3 to 5.6)52112.9 (1.3 to 6.5)823.5 (0.7 to 18.6)
Work involving repetitive movements0.0030.00060.40
    No650411.0292201.0358211.0
    Yes154222.3 (1.3 to 4.0)51134.1 (1.9 to 9.0)10391.4 (0.6 to 3.3)
Work paced by machine0.460.770.18
    No754571.0317311.0437261.0
    Yes5061.4 (0.6 to 3.4)2620.8 (0.2 to 3.6)2442.4 (0.7 to 7.8)
Physical workload (sum index of the above five factors 0–5)<0.00010.020.0008
    None437151.0190101.024751.0
    Moderate (index 1–2)273343.6 (1.9 to 6.7)98142.7 (1.1 to 6.4)175205.3 (1.9 to 14.5)
    High (index 3–5)94143.9 (1.8 to 8.3)5593.4 (1.2 to 8.8)3955.3 (1.4 to 19.9)
Work-related psychosocial factors
Uninteresting or monotonous work0.510.170.66
    None621471.0273251.0351241.0
    To some extent or much176161.2 (0.6 to 2.2)71101.7 (0.8 to 3.9)10560.8 (0.3 to 2.1)
Hurried or tight work schedule0.120.390.17
    None305181.011791.018991.0
    To some extent or much496451.5 (0.9 to 2.7)228261.4 (0.6 to 3.2)270211.7 (0.8 to 3.9)
Worry about making mistakes0.320.060.52
    None546381.0226161.0320221.0
    To some extent or much252241.3 (0.8 to 2.3)115172.0 (1.0 to 4.1)13770.8 (0.3 to 1.8)
Somatisation0.050.420.07
    No699471.0265201.0303101.0
    Yes109161.9 (1.0 to 3.5)72131.5 (0.6 to 4.0)162202.3 (1.0 to 5.2)
Individual factors
    Age (years)0.060.400.002
    30–35 (at follow-up: 50–55)251151.010861.014391.0
    36–45 (at follow-up: 56–65)290160.9 (0.4 to 1.9)124142.0 (0.8 to 5.5)16620.2 (0.04 to 0.9)
    46–55 (at follow-up: 66–75)203221.8 (0.9 to 3.6)8691.9 (0.6 to 5.5)117131.8 (0.7 to 4.3)
    >55 (at follow-up: >75)76102.3 (1.0 to 5.3)2742.7 (0.7 to 10.1)4961.9 (0.7 to 5.7)
Gender0.09
    Male345331.0
    Female475300.6 (0.4 to 1.1)
Body mass index0.0030.0020.49
    <25506221.018771.0319151.0
    25–29255332.5 (1.4 to 4.6)141223.8 (1.6 to 9.4)114111.6 (0.7 to 3.9)
    ⩾305982.8 (1.2 to 6.9)1746.1 (1.6 to 23.4)4241.6 (0.5 to 5.3)
Leisure-time physical exercise0.390.0310.69
    Little196151.07671.012081.0
    Some387341.1 (0.6 to 2.1)145211.4 (0.5 to 3.4)242130.8 (0.3 to 2.1)
    Regularly237140.7 (0.3 to 1.5)12450.4 (0.1 to 1.3)11391.3 (0.5 to 3.4)
Diabetes/elevated plasma glucose level0.270.8400.082
    No diabetes and normal glucose level797621.0328331.0466271.0
    Diabetes or elevated glucose level2951.8 (0.7 to 5.0)2021.1 (0.4 to 3.1)834.0 (1.0 to 16.2)
  • *All models adjusted for age and gender (if not stratified).