Table 1 Associations between baseline variables and a subsequent chronic shoulder disorder

	Chronic shoulder disorder at follow-up
	All*				Men*				Women*
	N of ref.	N of cases	OR (95% CI)	p	N of ref.	N of cases	OR (95% CI)	p	N of ref.	N of cases	OR (95% CI)	p
Work-related physical exposures
Lifting heavy loads				0.02				0.18				0.05
No	597	37	1.0		243	20	1.0		354	17	1.0
Yes	207	26	1.9 (1.1 to 3.3)		100	13	1.7 (0.8 to 3.5)		107	13	2.2 (1.0 to 4.8)
Working in awkward postures (twisted, bent or otherwise uncomfortable working position)				0.02				0.13				0.07
No	565	34	1.0		241	19	1.0		324	15	1.0
Yes	239	29	1.9 (1.1 to 3.2)		102	14	1.8 (0.9 to 3.7)		137	15	2.0 (0.9 to 4.3)
Work involving vibration (whole-body vibration or the use of vibrating tools)				0.01				0.01				0.18
No	440	50	1.0		291	22	1.0		453	28	1.0
Yes	60	13	2.7 (1.3 to 5.6)		52	11	2.9 (1.3 to 6.5)		8	2	3.5 (0.7 to 18.6)
Work involving repetitive movements				0.003				0.0006				0.40
No	650	41	1.0		292	20	1.0		358	21	1.0
Yes	154	22	2.3 (1.3 to 4.0)		51	13	4.1 (1.9 to 9.0)		103	9	1.4 (0.6 to 3.3)
Work paced by machine				0.46				0.77				0.18
No	754	57	1.0		317	31	1.0		437	26	1.0
Yes	50	6	1.4 (0.6 to 3.4)		26	2	0.8 (0.2 to 3.6)		24	4	2.4 (0.7 to 7.8)
Physical workload (sum index of the above five factors 0–5)				<0.0001				0.02				0.0008
None	437	15	1.0		190	10	1.0		247	5	1.0
Moderate (index 1–2)	273	34	3.6 (1.9 to 6.7)		98	14	2.7 (1.1 to 6.4)		175	20	5.3 (1.9 to 14.5)
High (index 3–5)	94	14	3.9 (1.8 to 8.3)		55	9	3.4 (1.2 to 8.8)		39	5	5.3 (1.4 to 19.9)
Work-related psychosocial factors
Uninteresting or monotonous work				0.51				0.17				0.66
None	621	47	1.0		273	25	1.0		351	24	1.0
To some extent or much	176	16	1.2 (0.6 to 2.2)		71	10	1.7 (0.8 to 3.9)		105	6	0.8 (0.3 to 2.1)
Hurried or tight work schedule				0.12				0.39				0.17
None	305	18	1.0		117	9	1.0		189	9	1.0
To some extent or much	496	45	1.5 (0.9 to 2.7)		228	26	1.4 (0.6 to 3.2)		270	21	1.7 (0.8 to 3.9)
Worry about making mistakes				0.32				0.06				0.52
None	546	38	1.0		226	16	1.0		320	22	1.0
To some extent or much	252	24	1.3 (0.8 to 2.3)		115	17	2.0 (1.0 to 4.1)		137	7	0.8 (0.3 to 1.8)
Somatisation				0.05				0.42				0.07
No	699	47	1.0		265	20	1.0		303	10	1.0
Yes	109	16	1.9 (1.0 to 3.5)		72	13	1.5 (0.6 to 4.0)		162	20	2.3 (1.0 to 5.2)
Individual factors
Age (years)				0.06				0.40				0.002
30–35 (at follow-up: 50–55)	251	15	1.0		108	6	1.0		143	9	1.0
36–45 (at follow-up: 56–65)	290	16	0.9 (0.4 to 1.9)		124	14	2.0 (0.8 to 5.5)		166	2	0.2 (0.04 to 0.9)
46–55 (at follow-up: 66–75)	203	22	1.8 (0.9 to 3.6)		86	9	1.9 (0.6 to 5.5)		117	13	1.8 (0.7 to 4.3)
>55 (at follow-up: >75)	76	10	2.3 (1.0 to 5.3)		27	4	2.7 (0.7 to 10.1)		49	6	1.9 (0.7 to 5.7)
Gender				0.09
Male	345	33	1.0
Female	475	30	0.6 (0.4 to 1.1)
Body mass index				0.003				0.002				0.49
<25	506	22	1.0		187	7	1.0		319	15	1.0
25–29	255	33	2.5 (1.4 to 4.6)		141	22	3.8 (1.6 to 9.4)		114	11	1.6 (0.7 to 3.9)
⩾30	59	8	2.8 (1.2 to 6.9)		17	4	6.1 (1.6 to 23.4)		42	4	1.6 (0.5 to 5.3)
Leisure-time physical exercise				0.39				0.031				0.69
Little	196	15	1.0		76	7	1.0		120	8	1.0
Some	387	34	1.1 (0.6 to 2.1)		145	21	1.4 (0.5 to 3.4)		242	13	0.8 (0.3 to 2.1)
Regularly	237	14	0.7 (0.3 to 1.5)		124	5	0.4 (0.1 to 1.3)		113	9	1.3 (0.5 to 3.4)
Diabetes/elevated plasma glucose level				0.27				0.840				0.082
No diabetes and normal glucose level	797	62	1.0		328	33	1.0		466	27	1.0
Diabetes or elevated glucose level	29	5	1.8 (0.7 to 5.0)		20	2	1.1 (0.4 to 3.1)		8	3	4.0 (1.0 to 16.2)

*All models adjusted for age and gender (if not stratified).