Patients fulfilling each ARA remission criterion and the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio of each criterion
| Criteria | Criteria present No (%) | ARA remission | Clinical remission | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Specificity | LR+* | PPV† % | Sensitivity | Specificity | LR+ | PPV% | ||
| (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | |||
| *Likelihood ratio positive (ratio of the sensitivity of a test to the false positive error rate of the test); †positive predictive value (proportion of the subjects who had positive test results who were in remission); ‡pain VAS ⩽10 mm; §duration of morning stiffness ⩽15 minutes. | |||||||||
| No swollen joints | 106 (66) | 100 | 39 (31 to 47) | 1.63 (1.27 to 1.85) | 18 (11 to 27) | 100 | 52 (42 to 62) | 2.08 (1.72 to 2.55) | 52 (42 to 62) |
| No tender joints | 69 (43) | 100 | 65 (56 to 73) | 2.84 (2.13 to 3.52) | 28 (17 to 40) | 100 | 87 (79 to 93) | 7.57 (4.72 to 12.34) | 80 (68 to 88) |
| No pain‡ | 32 (20) | 100 | 90 (84 to 94) | 10.00 (5.97 to 16.15) | 56 (38 to 74) | 41 (28 to 55) | 90 (83 to 95) | 4.24 (2.20 to 8.24) | 69 (50 to 84) |
| Normal ESR | 119 (74) | 100 | 29 (21 to 37) | 1.40 (1.10 to 1.55) | 16 (10 to 24) | 100 | 37 (28 to 47) | 1.56 (1.36 to 1.85) | 45 (35 to 54) |
| Morning stiffness§ | 65 (40) | 100 | 65 (57 to 73) | 2.87 (2.13 to 3.59) | 28 (17 to 40) | 62 (47 to 74) | 67 (57 to 76) | 1.88 (1.32 to 2.68) | 49 (37 to 62) |