TY - JOUR T1 - Revised European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group Activity Index is the best predictor of short-term severity accrual JF - Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases JO - Ann Rheum Dis SP - 1681 LP - 1685 DO - 10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-215787 VL - 78 IS - 12 AU - Serena Fasano AU - Antonella Riccardi AU - Valentina Messiniti AU - Paola Caramaschi AU - Edoardo Rosato AU - Britta Maurer AU - Vanessa Smith AU - Elise Siegert AU - Ellen De Langhe AU - Valeria Riccieri AU - Paolo Airó AU - Carina Mihai AU - Jerome Avouac AU - Elisabetta Zanatta AU - Ulrich A Walker AU - Florenzo Iannone AU - Paloma García De la Peña Lefebvre AU - Jörg H W Distler AU - Alessandra Vacca AU - Oliver Distler AU - Otylia Kowal-Bielecka AU - Yannick Allanore AU - Gabriele Valentini Y1 - 2019/12/01 UR - http://ard.bmj.com/content/78/12/1681.abstract N2 - Background The European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group (EUSTAR) recently developed a preliminarily revised activity index (AI) that performed better than the European Scleroderma Study Group Activity Index (EScSG-AI) in systemic sclerosis (SSc).Objective To assess the predictive value for short-term disease severity accrual of the EUSTAR-AI, as compared with those of the EScSG-AI and of known adverse prognostic factors.Methods Patients with SSc from the EUSTAR database with a disease duration from the onset of the first non-Raynaud sign/symptom ≤5 years and a baseline visit between 2003 and 2014 were first extracted. To capture the disease activity variations over time, EUSTAR-AI and EScSG-AI adjusted means were calculated. The primary outcome was disease progression defined as a Δ≥1 in the Medsger’s severity score and in distinct items at the 2-year follow-up visit. Logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify predictive factors.Results 549 patients were enrolled. At multivariate analysis, the EUSTAR-AI adjusted mean was the only predictor of any severity accrual and of that of lung and heart, skin and peripheral vascular disease over 2 years.Conclusion The adjusted mean EUSTAR-AI has the best predictive value for disease progression and development of severe organ involvement over time in SSc. ER -