Article Text

Download PDFPDF
Concise report
Validation of a prediction rule for development of rheumatoid arthritis in patients with early undifferentiated arthritis


Objective: To validate a model which predicts progression from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA, in a Canadian UA cohort.

Methods: The prediction rule, comprising variables which are scored from 0 to 13, with higher scores reflecting an increased risk of RA, was applied to baseline characteristics of all patients with UA. Progression to RA was determined at 6 months.

Results: 105 patients were identified. By 6 months, 80 (76%) had developed RA while 25 (24%) had developed another diagnosis. Number of tender and swollen joints, rheumatoid factor positivity, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide positivity, poor functional status and high disease activity were associated with development of RA (p<0.01). Median prediction score was 8.0 for progressors, 5.0 for non-progressors. With these cut-off points, 18 (72%) patients with scores ⩽5 did not develop RA, while 35 (97%) with scores ⩾8 did develop RA.

Conclusions: High scores in our cohort predicted those who progressed to RA by 6 months. Baseline scores ⩾8 corresponded with higher rates of progression.

Statistics from

Request Permissions

If you wish to reuse any or all of this article please use the link below which will take you to the Copyright Clearance Center’s RightsLink service. You will be able to get a quick price and instant permission to reuse the content in many different ways.