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Degenerative musculoskeletal disease
  1. O Ethgen1,
  2. J-Y Reginster2
  1. 1WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Aspects of Osteoarticular Disorders; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Liège—CHU Sart Tilman, Avenue de l’Hôpital 3, B 23, 4000 Liège Belgium
  2. 2WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Aspects of Osteoarticular Disorders; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Liège—CHU Sart Tilman, Avenue de l’Hôpital 3, B 23, 4000 Liège Belgium; Bone and Cartilage Research Unit, University of Liège—CHU Centre Ville, Quai G Kurth 45 - B K1, 4020 Liège Belgium
  1. Correspondence to:
    Mr O Ethgen
    University of Liege, Sante Publique CHU Sart Tilman, B23, 4000 Liege, Belgium; o.ethgenulg.ac.be

https://doi.org/10.1136/ard.2003.009613

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    Is the demographic transition impacting on the perception of degenerative musculoskeletal disease?

    AGING PROCESS

    The world is witnessing an unprecedented, irremediable, and longlasting aging process.1,2 Table 1 provides population decennial growth rates by 10 year age groups and shows marked differences across age groups. Figures 1 and 2 display the projected population distribution by 10 year age group. The graphs evidence quite well the “baby boomers” wave that is going to extend continuously the numbers of people over the age of 60 years.

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    Table 1

    Population decennial growth rates by age groups from 2000 to 2050 (%)

    Figure 1

    Population distribution by 10 year age group in Western Europe from 2000 to 2050.2

    Figure 2

    Population distribution by 10 year age group in Northern America from 2000 to 2050.2

    Western Europe should see the numbers of its inhabitants aged below 50 decrease dramatically, while those above 60 should sharply increase. The number of Europeans older than 60 is projected to rise from 84 570 thousands (21.8% of Europeans) at present to 107 592 thousands (32.8%) in 2050. The increase is even more pronounced for the old-old (80+) with the highest growth rate (124.4%). Those aged 80+ would rise impressively from 14 610 thousands (3.8%) in 2000 up to 38 394 thousands (10.7%) in 2045 and then stabilise. In North America, all age groups should increase in number until 2050, but growth rates are notably higher for those aged 60–69 (112.7%), 70–79 (104.3%) and, particularly, 80+ (234.3%). Whereas 50 876 thousands (16.2% of northern Americans) people were aged 60 in 2000, the number would be 118 974 thousands (27.2%) in 2050. Even faster than …

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