Patients with Prior Fractures Have an Increased Risk of Future Fractures: A Summary of the Literature and Statistical Synthesis

Klotzbuecher, Carolyn M.; Ross, Philip D.; Landsman, Pamela B.; Abbott, Thomas A.; Berger, Marc

doi:10.1359/jbmr.2000.15.4.721

Abstract

Numerous studies have reported increased risks of hip, spine, and other fractures among people who had previous clinically diagnosed fractures, or who have radiographic evidence of vertebral fractures. However, there is some variability in the magnitudes of associations among studies. We summarized the literature and performed a statistical synthesis of the risk of future fracture, given a history of prior fracture. The strongest associations were observed between prior and subsequent vertebral fractures; women with preexisting vertebral fractures (identified at baseline by vertebral morphometry) had approximately 4 times greater risk of subsequent vertebral fractures than those without prior fractures. This risk increases with the number of prior vertebral fractures. Most studies reported relative risks of approximately 2 for other combinations of prior and future fracture sites (hip, spine, wrist, or any site). The confidence profile method was used to derive a single pooled estimate from the studies that provided sufficient data for other combinations of prior and subsequent fracture sites. Studies of peri‐ and postmenopausal women with prior fractures had 2.0 (95% CI = 1.8, 2.1) times the risk of subsequent fracture compared with women without prior fractures. For other studies (including men and women of all ages), the risk was increased by 2.2 (1.9, 2.6) times. We conclude that history of prior fracture at any site is an important risk factor for future fractures. Patients with a history of prior fracture, therefore, should receive further evaluation for osteoporosis and fracture risk

osteoporosis, fractures, fracture risk

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis is A major public health problem, occurring in every population and geographic area studied.^(1–4) It affects an estimated 20 million people (26%) over the age of 45 in the United States, which resulted in $13.8 billion in health care costs in 1995.^(1,5–8) Osteoporosis is defined as a systemic disease, characterized by low bone mass and microarchitectural deterioration of bone tissue, leading to enhanced bone fragility and a consequent increase in fracture risk.^(4,9,10) Most fractures in the elderly are related to osteoporosis;⁽¹¹⁾ common fracture sites include the proximal femur (hip), vertebral bodies, distal forearm, proximal humerus, and ribs.^(4,10,12) It is estimated that more than 40% of postmenopausal women, and approximately 25 to 33% of men will eventually experience osteoporotic fractures.^(3,13,14) Many people are not aware of the risk factors for and consequences of osteoporosis.⁽¹³⁾ Given that there are no symptoms before fracture, it is important that physicians and patients recognize the risk factors.

Although history of prior fracture has been associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures in the literature, there has been no systematic review to summarize the magnitude and consistency of these associations by location of prior or subsequent fracture. Therefore, the goals of the current study were to summarize the literature, and to examine whether risk varies by location of prior fracture or by location of subsequent fracture.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Medline search was performed using the search terms “osteoporosis” and “fractures” to identify all articles in English from January 1966 up to September 1999. A total of 3576 articles were identified; those that appeared to be relevant, based on the titles (and abstracts when available), were retrieved. Articles that reported relative risks for associations of prior and subsequent fractures were considered for inclusion here. Abstracts from conference proceedings were also considered, but were not searched systematically. The authors endeavored to include all possible reports, considering reports from major prospective studies of osteoporosis known to them, books and review articles on osteoporosis, and articles on risk factors for fractures. Articles listed in the bibliographies of all identified papers were also considered, and experts in the field were asked to provide citations of articles known to them.

For this report, associations with future fractures are grouped by type of preexisting fracture; the order of presentation here reflects the sequence and incidence often observed in clinical practice. Wrist and spine fractures are two of the most common osteoporotic fractures. The incidence of these two fractures begins to increase rapidly soon after menopause.^(2,3,13) As such, wrist and spine fractures represent harbingers of subsequent hip fractures and additional fractures at the spine and other skeletal sites.

Details of each report identified, including study design, age range, number of observations, gender, length of follow‐up, and so forth, are provided in the appendices, along with the published relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) where available. Some studies reported the results of subanalyses, restricted to certain age ranges or fracture sites, or adjusted for additional covariates, and these results are also tabulated.

Statistical synthesis

A statistical synthesis was performed for the prior/subsequent fracture combinations for which there were at least two publications with relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Random‐effects models, using the confidence profile method, were applied to derive the summary estimates of relative risk.^(15,16) This model works under the assumption that the individual study results combined are a random sample of the true values in the larger population. This approach yields wider confidence intervals than produced with fixed‐effects modeling, accounting for study heterogeneity.

Published results based on peri‐ or postmenopausal women exclusively were analyzed together (Peri‐/postmenopausal); this category includes estimates based on women aged 45 years and older. The remaining published estimates, which presented results for men only, women of all ages, or men and women combined, were analyzed separately (Other); some of these studies included postmenopausal women, but did not provide separate estimates for them. Pooled relative risk estimates were calculated for each combination of prior fracture and subsequent fracture type (e.g., wrist fracture predicting subsequent hip fracture); single published values are provided when only one report was available. Pooled estimates were also calculated for more general groupings: by location of prior fracture (individual rows in the resulting summary table), by location of subsequent fracture (columns in the table), and for all rows and columns combined. Associations between prior and subsequent vertebral fractures were excluded from the row and column estimates, and are discussed separately. When multiple analyses were provided from a single study, only one value was used from each report for each combination of prior and subsequent fracture. Thus, one report could contribute to wrist fractures as predictors of all fractures as well as of hip fractures. Values adjusted for age only were used whenever possible, because most studies did not adjust for bone mineral density (BMD) or other potential confounders, and because practicing physicians are generally not able to take such factors into account. The published relative risks and 95% CI used in calculating the pooled estimates for Table 1 are tabulated in Appendix 1. Appendix 2 contains the relative risk estimates and summaries of the age range, gender distribution, sample size, and other information for individual articles, including studies and subanalyses that were not included in the pooled estimates shown in Table 1.

RESULTS

Prior wrist fracture

There were nine publications that reported associations of prior wrist fractures with subsequent fractures (Appendix 2). The study designs included cross‐sectional mail surveys, and case‐control and prospective cohort studies. Only one study was limited to postmenopausal women;⁽¹⁷⁾ most of the other studies involved women aged 45 and older, or both men and women (including some pre‐ and perimenopausal women).^(18–22) One study included premenopausal women as young as 20 years⁽²³⁾ and one studied men only.⁽²⁴⁾ Associations of similar magnitude (relative risk [RR] = 1.4 to 2.7) were reported for both men and women in each of five hip fracture studies.^{(17,20,21,23,25)}

The studies of men^(24,25) reported associations with fractures of all types (RR = 1.8 to 2.5) that were similar in magnitude to studies of women (RR = 1.5 to 2.4).^{(17–19,22,25)} One study did not provide 95% CI,⁽¹⁸⁾ leaving eight studies for pooling. Differences in the magnitudes of associations with subsequent hip versus all types of subsequent fractures were not remarkable, but stronger associations (RR = 3.3 to 10.7) were reported for some studies of subsequent wrist and vertebral fractures^(19,25) (Table 1 and Appendix 1). The pooled estimate for all types of subsequent fracture types combined was slightly lower for peri‐/postmenopausal women (RR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.7, 2.4), compared with 2.6 (1.9, 3.5) for other studies (Table 1).

Table 1.

Pooled Associations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip	Pooled
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)^a	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)^a,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)^d
	Other	3.6 (1.9, 6.7)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)	1.5 (1.3, 1.7)	2.6 (1.9, 3.5)
Vertebral	Peri/postmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)^a	4.4 (3.6, 5.4)^d	1.8 (1.7, 1.9)	2.3 (2.0, 2.8)	1.9 (1.7, 2.3)^b
	Other	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	19.0 (6.5, 55.3)	2.7 (1.8, 3.9)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	2.3 (1.8, 2.9)^b
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/postmenopausal	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)^d	1.9 (1.3, 2.7)^d	2.0 (1.7, 2.3)	1.9 (1.7, 2.2)^d
	Other	—^c	—^c	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)	2.1 (1.2, 3.5)	1.7 (1.4, 2.2)^d
Hip	Peri/postmenopausal	—^c	2.5 (1.8, 3.5)	1.9 (NA)^a	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)^a	2.4 (1.9, 3.2)
	Other	—^c	—^c	2.1 (1.3, 3.4)	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.0)
Pooled	Peri/postmenopausal	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)	2.0 (1.6, 2.4)^b,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)^d	2.0 (1.9, 2.2)	2.0 (1.8, 2.1)^b,d
	Other	2.3 (1.7, 3.3)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)^b	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	2.2 (1.9, 2.6)^b

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip	Pooled
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)^a	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)^a,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)^d
	Other	3.6 (1.9, 6.7)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)	1.5 (1.3, 1.7)	2.6 (1.9, 3.5)
Vertebral	Peri/postmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)^a	4.4 (3.6, 5.4)^d	1.8 (1.7, 1.9)	2.3 (2.0, 2.8)	1.9 (1.7, 2.3)^b
	Other	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	19.0 (6.5, 55.3)	2.7 (1.8, 3.9)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	2.3 (1.8, 2.9)^b
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/postmenopausal	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)^d	1.9 (1.3, 2.7)^d	2.0 (1.7, 2.3)	1.9 (1.7, 2.2)^d
	Other	—^c	—^c	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)	2.1 (1.2, 3.5)	1.7 (1.4, 2.2)^d
Hip	Peri/postmenopausal	—^c	2.5 (1.8, 3.5)	1.9 (NA)^a	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)^a	2.4 (1.9, 3.2)
	Other	—^c	—^c	2.1 (1.3, 3.4)	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.0)
Pooled	Peri/postmenopausal	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)	2.0 (1.6, 2.4)^b,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)^d	2.0 (1.9, 2.2)	2.0 (1.8, 2.1)^b,d
	Other	2.3 (1.7, 3.3)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)^b	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	2.2 (1.9, 2.6)^b

^a Only 1 study is represented.

^b Excludes prior vertebral fracture predicting subsequent vertebral fracture, because stronger associations were observed.

^c No studies available; NA = no CI reported.

^d Other relative risk estimates were reported, but were not included in the pooled estimates because measures of variability were lacking, or because estimates were biased due to differences in follow‐up. See Appendix 1 for a list of the estimates that were pooled, and the corresponding references.

Open in new tab

Table 1.

Pooled Associations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip	Pooled
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)^a	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)^a,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)^d
	Other	3.6 (1.9, 6.7)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)	1.5 (1.3, 1.7)	2.6 (1.9, 3.5)
Vertebral	Peri/postmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)^a	4.4 (3.6, 5.4)^d	1.8 (1.7, 1.9)	2.3 (2.0, 2.8)	1.9 (1.7, 2.3)^b
	Other	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	19.0 (6.5, 55.3)	2.7 (1.8, 3.9)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	2.3 (1.8, 2.9)^b
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/postmenopausal	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)^d	1.9 (1.3, 2.7)^d	2.0 (1.7, 2.3)	1.9 (1.7, 2.2)^d
	Other	—^c	—^c	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)	2.1 (1.2, 3.5)	1.7 (1.4, 2.2)^d
Hip	Peri/postmenopausal	—^c	2.5 (1.8, 3.5)	1.9 (NA)^a	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)^a	2.4 (1.9, 3.2)
	Other	—^c	—^c	2.1 (1.3, 3.4)	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.0)
Pooled	Peri/postmenopausal	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)	2.0 (1.6, 2.4)^b,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)^d	2.0 (1.9, 2.2)	2.0 (1.8, 2.1)^b,d
	Other	2.3 (1.7, 3.3)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)^b	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	2.2 (1.9, 2.6)^b

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip	Pooled
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)^a	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)^a,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)^d
	Other	3.6 (1.9, 6.7)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)	2.0 (1.7, 2.4)	1.5 (1.3, 1.7)	2.6 (1.9, 3.5)
Vertebral	Peri/postmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)^a	4.4 (3.6, 5.4)^d	1.8 (1.7, 1.9)	2.3 (2.0, 2.8)	1.9 (1.7, 2.3)^b
	Other	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	19.0 (6.5, 55.3)	2.7 (1.8, 3.9)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	2.3 (1.8, 2.9)^b
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/postmenopausal	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)^d	1.9 (1.3, 2.7)^d	2.0 (1.7, 2.3)	1.9 (1.7, 2.2)^d
	Other	—^c	—^c	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)	2.1 (1.2, 3.5)	1.7 (1.4, 2.2)^d
Hip	Peri/postmenopausal	—^c	2.5 (1.8, 3.5)	1.9 (NA)^a	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)^a	2.4 (1.9, 3.2)
	Other	—^c	—^c	2.1 (1.3, 3.4)	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)^a	1.7 (1.4, 2.0)
Pooled	Peri/postmenopausal	1.9 (1.3, 2.8)	2.0 (1.6, 2.4)^b,d	1.9 (1.6, 2.2)^d	2.0 (1.9, 2.2)	2.0 (1.8, 2.1)^b,d
	Other	2.3 (1.7, 3.3)	7.2 (3.6, 14.6)^b	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	1.8 (1.6, 2.2)	2.2 (1.9, 2.6)^b

^a Only 1 study is represented.

^b Excludes prior vertebral fracture predicting subsequent vertebral fracture, because stronger associations were observed.

^c No studies available; NA = no CI reported.

^d Other relative risk estimates were reported, but were not included in the pooled estimates because measures of variability were lacking, or because estimates were biased due to differences in follow‐up. See Appendix 1 for a list of the estimates that were pooled, and the corresponding references.

Open in new tab

If wrist fractures are an indicator of osteoporosis, one might expect wrist fractures that occur before menopause to be weaker predictors of fractures in later life, because osteoporosis is rare before menopause, and most such fractures might be related to trauma rather than low BMD. However, there was little difference in association with all types of fractures in one study in which the prior wrist fractures occurred between ages 20‐34 years (RR = 2.4 for other fractures)⁽¹⁹⁾ compared with studies in which most prior wrist fractures occurred after age 45 years (RR = 1.5 to 2.1).^(18,22) This finding is supported by other evidence that increased fracture risk among perimenopausal women and adolescents is associated with low bone mass.^(26–28)

Prior vertebral fracture

Fifteen publications reported associations of prior vertebral fractures with subsequent fractures (Appendix 2). Seven of these studies were based on prior clinical (symptomatic) vertebral fractures^{(17,22,24,29–32)} and the remainder were based on prior morphometric fractures identified at baseline using radiographs.^(33–39,53) Morphometric fractures are diagnosed on the basis of reduced vertebral body height; approximately half of women with morphometric fractures do not report having back pain, and approximately two‐thirds had not had a clinical diagnosis of fracture.⁽⁴⁰⁾ The age at which preexisting morphometric vertebral fractures had occurred is usually not known, except for the third of fracture cases that had been clinically diagnosed.

Most studies of prior vertebral fractures were either prospective, nested case‐control, or used population‐based records to compare the incidence of new fractures among cases with prior vertebral fractures to incidence rates in the community, but one study used a cross‐sectional mail survey.⁽¹⁷⁾ Except for one study of men,⁽²⁴⁾ and three studies that included both men and women, the remaining studies were restricted to women, and most of the women (in all studies) were postmenopausal when fractures were diagnosed.

There were no obvious differences between clinical and morphometric fractures in the magnitudes of associations with subsequent wrist, hip, or “all/other” fractures (Appendices 1 and 2). Associations with subsequent hip fractures were somewhat stronger (pooled RR = 2.3) than with all subsequent fractures combined (RR = 1.8) among peri‐/postmenopausal women, but the converse was observed for other studies (Table 1). The association of prior vertebral fractures with subsequent wrist fractures was somewhat weaker (RR = 1.4) than for other subsequent fracture types. In the five studies that examined the effect of adjusting for BMD,^{(33,34,36‐38)} the magnitude of association was reduced by 20% or less (Appendix 2). Conversely, BMD remained a strong predictor of fracture independent of prior fractures (data not shown); BMD and prior fractures complement each other for predicting fracture risk.

The strongest association was with subsequent vertebral fractures—approximately 2 times greater (RR = 4.4) than for subsequent fractures at other sites among postmenopausal women, and much greater (RR = 19.0) for other populations (Table 1). Other studies also reported strong associations between prior and subsequent vertebral fractures, but the categories of number of prior fractures that were reported precluded pooling across studies.^(35–37,39) Three studies reported that the risk of subsequent vertebral fractures increased dramatically with increasing number of prevalent fractures at baseline.^(36,37,53) For example, the odds of a new vertebral fracture among women with five or more vertebral fractures at baseline was 35 times greater than for women without vertebral fractures at baseline.⁽³⁷⁾

Excluding the studies of subsequent vertebral fractures, the associations of prior vertebral fractures with subsequent fractures (of all types) were similar for peri‐/postmenopausal women (pooled RR = 1.9) compared with other studies (RR = 2.3; Table 1).

Prior fractures of any type

There were 19 reports of associations between fractures at any skeletal site (or specific sites other than spine, hip, or wrist) and subsequent fractures (Appendix 2). Twelve of the publications were based on prospective studies.^{(11,14,23,26,27,30,35,39,41–44)} As with prior wrist fractures, the remaining reports included case‐control studies and cross‐sectional mail surveys.^{(17,19,38,45‐48)} Some of the studies involved only men,^(14,43,48) whereas others included men and women.^(38,45,46) As noted in Appendix 2, some studies excluded almost half of prior fracture cases, and the validity of other studies was uncertain, but all publications were included when calculating the pooled estimates, except one that did not provide 95% CI.⁽³⁵⁾

Several studies involved perimenopausal women,^(26,27) or prior fractures that occurred before age 50.^(45,47) The associations with subsequent fractures of all types in these studies (RR = 1.4 to 2.8) were of similar magnitude to other studies that involved postmenopausal women (RR = 1.3 to 31).^{(11,17,35,38,44)}

Among studies of peri‐/postmenopausal women, pooled estimates were remarkably uniform for all fracture categories, with relative risks between 1.8 and 2.0 (Table 1). For other studies, associations were stronger for subsequent hip fractures (RR = 2.1) than for all subsequent fractures (RR = 1.4). Pooled RR estimates for all fracture types combined were slightly greater for peri‐/postmenopausal women (RR = 1.9) compared with other studies (RR = 1.7).

Only one study examined associations for multiple prior fractures; the risk of subsequent fractures was increased by 5.9 times among women with two or more prior fractures.⁽²⁶⁾ This large increase in risk among women with multiple fractures suggests that the number of fractures may be more important than the location of prior fractures.

One case‐control subset analysis found that history of prior fracture was associated with reduced risk of hip fracture.⁽⁴⁹⁾ However, this study was omitted from the appendices because of the unusual nature of the sample; the subset involved only men who had hip fracture that resulted from a fall and men without hip fractures who had fallen in the past year.

Prior hip fractures

Six publications reported associations between prior hip fractures and subsequent fractures (Appendix 2). One involved men only,⁽²⁴⁾ and one included both men and women;⁽⁵⁰⁾ the others involved only women.^{(17,18,22,42)} The mean age was 70 years or older in most studies. Most studies were either cohort design or compared the incidence of new fractures among people with prior hip fractures to the incidence in the community. The magnitudes of associations did not vary appreciably by location of subsequent fractures and were similar to those for other prior fracture types (Table 1). The association was somewhat stronger for subsequent morphometric vertebral fractures (RR = 2.5), but there was only one such study; this study also adjusted for several covariates.⁽⁴²⁾ For other studies, the pooled estimate (RR = 1.7) was smaller than the estimate for peri‐/postmenopausal women (RR = 2.4).

Pooled estimates for subsequent fracture types and for all combinations of prior and subsequent fractures

The pooled‐column estimates in Table 1 allow comparison of associations for prior fractures at any site by location of subsequent fractures. Among peri‐/postmenopausal women, associations were remarkably uniform for all types of subsequent fractures, with relative risks ranging from 1.9 to 2.0. Among other studies, associations were similar in magnitude (relative to peri‐/postmenopausal women), except that the association was greater for subsequent vertebral fractures (RR = 4.5). Accordingly, the pooled estimate for the entire table (excluding prior vertebral fracture predicting subsequent vertebral fracture) was similar for peri‐/postmenopausal women compared with other studies.

DISCUSSION

We have identified numerous reports of increased risk of subsequent fractures among people with a history of fractures. Although the magnitude varied somewhat, the direction of association was very consistent among reports, and it is clear that there is an increased risk of future fracture among those who have already experienced a fracture. The risk of future fractures appears to increase with the number of prior fractures, especially for prior vertebral fractures predicting future vertebral fractures, but information for nonspine fractures is limited and deserves further study.

There appears to be some disagreement, even among experts, regarding associations between prior and subsequent fractures. For example, recent osteoporosis clinical guidelines⁽⁵¹⁾ state that risk of new vertebral fracture is at least double among women with prior vertebral fractures, and prior wrist fracture is associated with triple the risk of future vertebral fracture and twice the future risk of hip fracture. Our summary suggests the associations of prior vertebral fractures with subsequent vertebral fractures are actually stronger, and associations of prior wrist fractures with subsequent vertebral fractures are weaker among postmenopausal women, than stated in the guidelines.

The pooled estimate in Table 1 suggests that peri‐/postmenopausal women with prior fractures have twice the risk of future fractures overall (RR = 2.0), compared with those without prior fractures; the pooled estimate was similar for other studies (RR = 2.2). The sole exception was for prior spine fractures and subsequent spine fractures, for which the association is greater (RR = 4.4 to 19.0). Using all published studies to obtain pooled relative‐risk estimates is a somewhat crude approach, which does not take into account advantages or disadvantages of individual study designs, or other potentially important factors. Despite the potential limitations, the associations are remarkably similar in direction and magnitude for all combinations of prior/subsequent fractures for which multiple reports were available (except as noted for prior/subsequent spine fractures).

The similarity of associations (in terms of direction and magnitude) for all sites, except prior vertebral fractures with subsequent vertebral fractures, suggests that a common mechanism may be involved. The associations were similar in magnitude, comparing studies of postmenopausal women with studies that considered fractures occurring before menopause, studies of perimenopausal women, and studies that included men. The increased risk may result, in part, from the fact that people who already had fractures also had low BMD. However, the studies that controlled for baseline BMD reported that adjusting for BMD reduced the magnitude of the association only slightly. This suggests that either a single measurement of BMD is not representative of overall skeletal status, or that prior fractures indicate the presence of mechanisms that influence risk, independent of current BMD.

Prior fractures may indicate defects in bone microarchitecture, a skeletal factor that may influence fracture risk, independent of BMD. Prior fractures might also indicate the presence of nonskeletal factors that increase fracture risk, such as increased frequency of falls or reduced protective responses. Nevertheless, BMD also remained a strong predictor of fracture risk after adjusting for prevalent fractures, indicating that both BMD and prevalent fractures contribute important, complementary information about fracture risk. A 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease has been associated with an approximate doubling of fracture risk in prospective cohort studies; the increase is somewhat greater for hip BMD predicting hip fracture (RR ≈ 2.5).^{(13,36,41,52,53)} Thus, the increase in fracture risk among those with a prior fracture is similar in magnitude to that for 1 SD lower BMD. Furthermore, fracture risk increases progressively with greater decreases in BMD and with multiple prevalent fractures.

Prior vertebral fractures were strong predictors of future vertebral fractures, with a relative risk of ∼4 for women with at least one vertebral fracture, and the risk increases approximately 2 to 4 times for each fracture present at baseline.^(36,37,53) The larger magnitude compared with associations for nonspinal fractures may result because most spine fractures are attributable to bone fragility and often seem to occur spontaneously, whereas most nonspinal fractures are associated with falls or other minor trauma. Prior vertebral fracture alone is a strong risk factor for hip fracture as well as other osteoporotic fractures in both peri‐ and postmenopausal women and other populations. Even a small increase in relative risk is important because of the costs related to hip fractures—an average of $21,000 per patient for direct medical care.⁽⁵⁴⁾

Some evidence suggests that initial fractures that occur earlier in life signal a higher subsequent risk of fracture than fractures that occur later in life,^(50,55) although this may not apply to all types of fractures.⁽²⁵⁾. Fracture at an early age partly represents low BMD, and there will be many years of additional bone loss, which will increase risk further. Most women with a history of low trauma fractures have low BMD, and women with both low BMD and prior fractures have very high risk of future fractures.⁽¹³⁾ Therefore, an important clinical goal is to prevent the bone loss that leads to the first fracture, because this bone loss is largely irreversible by the time the first fracture occurs. Nevertheless, it is important to treat women who have already experienced fractures, as well as those with low BMD who have not yet fractured. Effective treatments are available that can reduce risk by half, whether or not fractures have already occurred.⁽³⁵⁾ Prior fractures indicate an increased risk of future fractures, and fracture risk will continue to increase progressively if left untreated, resulting in multiple fractures, and a high risk of devastating hip fractures. Although the association between prior fracture and future fracture is well established in the current literature, it appears that few elderly patients who have experienced recent fractures are receiving treatment to prevent future fractures.^(56–59)

Potential limitations of this study

The literature review may have missed some reports that examined associations of prior fractures with subsequent fractures; however, it seems unlikely that major reports would have been missed. Furthermore, given the consistency of results found among the reports summarized here, it seems unlikely that any studies inadvertently omitted would alter the conclusions (i.e., that they would find strong associations in the opposite direction).

Conclusion

The evidence clearly indicates that history of any prior fracture is an important risk factor for future fractures, including costly and disabling hip and vertebral fractures. Older patients who present with fractures should be regarded as having an increased risk of developing future fractures, and should receive further evaluation for osteoporosis as well as risk for hip and other fractures.

REFERENCES

1

Office of Medical Applications Research, National Institutes of Health

1984

Osteoporosis: Consensus conference

.

JAMA

252

:

799

–

802

.

Crossref

PubMed

WorldCat

2

Kanis

JA

,

Pitt

FA

1992

Epidemiology of osteoporosis

.

Bone

13

:

S7

–

S15

.

3

Riggs

BL

,

Melton

LJ

1992

The prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

.

N Engl J Med

327

:

620

–

627

.

Google Scholar

PubMed

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

4

Consensus Development Conference

1993

Diagnosis, prophylaxis and treatment of osteoporosis

.

Am J Med

94

:

646

–

650

.

Crossref

PubMed

WorldCat

5

Lukert

BP

1990

Osteoporosis: Prevention and treatment

.

Compr Ther

16

:

36

–

42

.

Google Scholar

PubMed

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

6

Berg

RL

Cassells

JS

1990

Osteoporosis. In:

The Second Fifty Years: Promoting HealthPreventing Disability

.

Institute of Medicine/National Academy Press

,

Washington, DC, U.S.A.

, pp.

76

–

100

.

Google Scholar

Google Preview

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

7

Abbott

TA

,

Lawrence

BJ

,

Wallach

S

1996

Osteoporosis: The need for comprehensive treatment guidelines

.

Clin Ther

18

:

127

–

149

.

8

Ray

NF

,

Chan

JK

,

Thamer

M

,

Melton

LJ

1997

Medical expenditures for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures in the United States in 1995: Report from the National Osteoporosis Foundation

.

J Bone Miner Res

12

:

24

–

35

.

9

Kanis

JA

1994

Osteoporosisits consequences. In:

Osteoporosis

.

Blackwell Science

,

Cambridge, MA, U.S.A.

, pp.

1

–

6

.

Google Scholar

Google Preview

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

10

Cummings

SR

,

Kelsey

JL

,

Nevitt

MC

,

O'Dowd

KJ

1985

Epidemiology of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures

.

Epidemiol Rev

7

:

178

–

208

.

11

Seeley

DG

,

Kelsey

J

,

Jergas

M

,

Nevitt

M

1996

Predictors of ankle and foot fractures in older women

.

J Bone Miner Res

11

:

1347

–

1355

.

12

Kanis

JA

,

Melton

LJ

III,

Christiansen

C

,

Johnston

CC

,

Khaltaev

N

1994

Perspective: The diagnosis of osteoporosis

.

J Bone Miner Res

9

:

1137

–

1141

.

13

Ross

PD

1996

Osteoporosis: Frequency, consequences, and risk factors

.

Arch Intern Med

156

:

1399

–

1141

.

14

Nguyen

TV

,

Eisman

JA

,

Kelly

PJ

,

Sambrook

PN

1996

Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures in elderly men

.

Am J Epidemiol

144

:

255

–

263

.

15

Eddy

DM

,

Hasselblad

V

,

Schacter

RD

1992

Meta‐Analysis by the Confidence Profile Method: The Statistical Synthesis of Evidence

.

Academic Press

,

Boston, MA, U.S.A.

Google Scholar

Google Preview

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

16

Eddy

DM

,

Hasselblad

V

1992

FAST*PRO: Software for Meta‐Analysis by the Confidence Profile Method

.

Academic Press

,

Boston, MA, U.S.A.

Google Scholar

Google Preview

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

17

Gunnes

M

,

Mellstrom

D

,

Johnell

O

1998

How well can a previous fracture indicate a new fracture? A questionnaire study of 29802. postmenopausal women

.

Acta Orthop Scand

69

:

508

–

512

.

18

Elliot

CA

,

Price

VH

,

Wallace

WA

1990

The predictive value of radialhip fracture for further fracture risk in Nottingham. In:

Christiansen

C

,

Overgaard

K

(eds.)

Osteoporosis 1990

.

Osteopress ApS

,

Copenhagen, Denmark

, pp.

216

–

217

.

Google Scholar

Google Preview

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

19

Honkanen

R

,

Tuppurainen

M

,

Kroger

H

,

Alhava

E

,

Puntila

E

1997

Associations of early postmenopausal fractures with subsequent fractures by sites and mechanisms of fractures

.

Calcif Tissue Int

60

:

327

–

331

.

20

Owen

RA

,

Melton

LJ

,

Ilstrup

DM

,

Johnson

KA

,

Riggs

BL

1982

Colles' fracture and subsequent hip fracture risk

.

Clin Orthop

71

:

37

–

43

.

Google Scholar

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

21

Mallmin

H

,

Ljunghall

S

,

Persson

I

,

Naessen

T

,

Krusemo

UB

,

Bergstrom

R

1993

Fracture of the distal forearm as a forecaster of subsequent hip fracture: A population‐based cohort study with 24 years follow‐up

.

Calcif Tissue Int

52

:

269

–

272

.

22

Gardsell

P

,

Johnell

O

,

Nilsson

BE

,

Nilsson

JA

1989

The predictive value of fracture, disease, and falling tendency for fragility fractures in women

.

Calcif Tissue Int

45

:

327

–

330

.

23

Lauritzen

JB

,

Schwartz

P

,

McNair

P

,

Lund

B

,

Transbol

I

1993

Radial and humeral fractures as predictors of subsequent hip, radial or humeral fractures in women, and their seasonal variation

.

Osteoporos Int

3

:

133

–

137

.

24

Gardsell

P

,

Johnell

O

,

Nilsson

BE

1990

The predictive value of forearm bone mineral content measurements in men

.

Bone

11

:

229

–

232

.

25

Cuddihy

M‐T

,

Gabriel

SE

,

Crowson

CS

,

O'Fallon

WM

,

Melton

LJ

III

1999

Forearm fractures as predictors of subsequent osteoporotic fractures

.

Osteoporos Int

9

:

469

–

475

.

26

Torgerson

DJ

,

Campbell

MK

,

Thomas

RE

,

Reid

DM

1996

Prediction of perimenopausal fractures by bone mineral density and other risk factors

.

J Bone Miner Res

11

:

293

–

297

.

27

Tuppurainen

M

,

Kroger

H

,

Honkanen

R

,

Puntila

E

,

Huopio

J

,

Saarikoski

S

,

Alhava

E

1993

Risks of perimenopausal fractures—A prospective population‐based study

.

Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand

74

:

624

–

628

.

Google Scholar

Crossref

WorldCat

28

Hagino

H

,

Yamamoto

K

,

Teshima

R

,

Kishimoto

H

,

Nakamura

T

1990

Fracture incidence and bone mineral density of the distal radius in Japanese children

.

Arch Orthop Trauma Surg

109

:

262

–

264

.

29

Melton

LJ

III,

Atkinson

EJ

,

Cooper

C

,

O'Fallon

WM

,

Riggs

BL

1999

Vertebral fractures predict subsequent fractures

.

Osteoporos Int

10

:

214

–

221

.

30

Lauritzen

JB

,

Lund

B

1993

Risk of hip fracture after osteoporosis fractures

.

Acta Orthop Scand

64

:

297

–

300

.

31

Cooper

C

,

Atkinson

EJ

,

O'Fallon

WM

,

Melton

LJ

III

1992

Incidence of clinically diagnosed vertebral fractures: A population‐based study in Rochester, Minnesota, 1985‐1989

.

J Bone Miner Res

7

:

221

–

227

.

32

Kotowicz

MA

,

Melton

LJ

III,

Cooper

C

,

Atkinson

EJ

,

O'Fallon

WM

,

Riggs

BL

1994

Risk of hip fracture in women with vertebral fracture

.

J Bone Miner Res

9

:

599

–

605

.

33

Black

DM

,

Arden

NK

,

Palermo

L

,

Pearson

J

,

Cummings

SR

,

for the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Research Group

1999

Prevalent vertebral deformities predict hip fractures and new vertebral deformities but not wrist fractures

.

J Bone Miner Res

14

:

821

–

828

.

34

Black

DM

,

Jergas

M

,

Palermo

L

,

Nevitt

MC

,

Genant

H

,

Cummings

SR

1994

Do vertebral fractures predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures?

J Bone Miner Res

9

:

S330 (abstract)

.

Google Scholar

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

35

Ensrud

KE

,

Black

DM

,

Palermo

L

,

Bauer

DC

,

Barrett‐Connor

E

,

Quandt

SA

,

Thompson

DE

,

Karpf

DB

,

for the Fracture Intervention Trial Research Group

1997

Treatment with alendronate prevents fractures in women at highest risk

.

Arch Intern Med

157

:

2617

–

2624

.

36

Ross

PD

,

Davis

JW

,

Epstein

RS

,

Wasnich

RD

1991

Pre‐existing fractures and bone mass predict vertebral fracture incidence in women

.

Ann Intern Med

114

:

919

–

923

.

37

Ross

PD

,

Genant

HK

,

Davis

JW

,

Miller

PD

,

Wasnich

RD

1993

Predicting vertebral fracture incidence from prevalent fractures and bone density among non‐black, osteoporotic women

.

Osteoporos Int

3

:

120

–

126

.

38

Burger

H

,

van Daele

PLA

,

Algra

D

,

Hofman

A

,

Grobbee

DE

,

Schutte

HA

,

Birkenhager

JC

,

Pols

HA

1994

Vertebral deformities as predictors of non‐vertebral fractures

.

Br Med J

309

:

991

–

992

.

Google Scholar

Crossref

WorldCat

39

Wasnich

RD

,

Davis

JW

,

Ross

PD

1994

Spine fracture risk is predicted by non‐spine fractures

.

Osteoporos Int

4

:

1

–

5

.

40

Ross

PD

1997

Clinical consequences of vertebral fractures

.

Am J Med

103

:

30S

–

43S

.

41

Cummings

SR

,

Nevitt

MC

,

Browner

WS

,

Stone

K

,

Fox

KM

,

Ensrud

KE

,

Cauley

J

,

Black

D

,

Vogt

TM

,

for the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Research Group

1995

Risk factors for hip fracture in white women

.

N Engl J Med

332

:

767

–

773

.

42

Nevitt

MC

,

Cummings

SR

,

Black

DM

,

Genant

HK

,

Fox

K

,

Stone

K

1995

Risk factors for first and recurrent vertebral fractures: A prospective study

.

J Bone Miner Res

10

(

Suppl 1

):

S468 (abstract)

.

Google Scholar

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

43

Mussolino

ME

,

Looker

AC

,

Madans

JH

,

Langlois

JA

,

Orwoll

ES

1998

Risk factors for hip fracture in white men: The NHANES I epidemiologic follow‐up study

.

J Bone Miner Res

13

:

918

–

924

.

44

Kelsey

JL

,

Browner

WS

,

Seeley

DG

,

Nevitt

MC

,

Cummings

SR

1992

Risk factors for fractures of the distal forearm and proximal humerus

.

Am J Epidemiol

135

:

477

–

489

.

45

Karlsson

MK

,

Hasserius

R

,

Obrant

KJ

1993

Individuals who sustain nonosteoporotic fractures continue to also sustain fragility fractures

.

Calcif Tissue Int

53

:

229

–

231

.

46

Meyer

HE

,

Henriksen

C

,

Falch

JA

,

Pedersen

JI

,

Tverdal

1995

Risk factors for hip fracture in a high incidence area: A case‐control study from Oslo, Norway

.

Osteoporos Int

5

:

239

–

246

.

47

Johansson

C

,

Mellstrom

D

1996

An earlier fracture as a risk factor for new fracture and its association with smoking and menopausal age in women

.

Maturitas

24

:

97

–

106

.

48

Poor

G

,

Atkinson

EJ

,

O'Fallon

WM

,

Melton

LJ

III

1995

Predictors of hip fracture in elderly men

.

J Bone Miner Res

19

:

1900

–

1907

.

Google Scholar

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

49

Schwartz

AV

,

Kelsey

JL

,

Sidney

S

,

Grisso

JA

1998

Characteristics of falls and risk of hip fracture in elderly men

.

Osteoporos Int

8

:

240

–

246

.

50

Melton

LJ

, III,

Ilstrup

DM

,

Beckenbaugh

RD

,

Riggs

BL

1982

Hip fracture recurrence: A population‐based study

.

Clin Orthop

167

:

131

–

138

.

Google Scholar

Crossref

WorldCat

51

Kanis

J

,

Delmas

P

,

Burckhardt

P

,

Cooper

C

,

Torgerson

D

,

on behalf of the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and Bone Disease

1997

Guidelines for diagnosis and management of osteoporosis

.

Osteoporos Int

7

:

390

–

406

.

52

Schott

AM

,

Cormier

C

,

Hans

D

,

Favier

F

,

Hausherr

E

,

Dargent

Molina P

,

Delmas

PD

,

Ribot

C

,

Sebert

JL

,

Breart

G

,

Meunier

PJ

1998

How hip and whole body bone mineral density predict hip fracture in elderly women: The EPIDOS prospective study

.

Osteoporos Int

8

:

247

–

254

.

53

Nevitt

MC

,

Ross

PD

,

Palermo

L

,

Musliner

T

,

Genant

HK

,

Thompson

DE

1999

Association of prevalent vertebral fractures, bone density, and alendronate treatment with incident vertebral fractures: Effect of number and spinal location of fractures

.

Bone

25

:

613

–

619

.

54

Johnell

O

1997

The socioeconomic burden of fractures: Today and in the 21st century

.

Am J Med

103

:

20S

–

26S

.

55

Silman

AJ

1995

The patient with fracture: The risk of subsequent fractures

.

Am J Med

98

(

Suppl 2a

):

12S

–

16S

.

Google Scholar

PubMed

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

56

Abbott

T

,

Mucha

L

,

Gunter

M

,

Mellin

T

,

Berger

M

1998

Assessment of the incidence of osteoporosis and osteoporosis‐related fractures and pharmaceutical treatment patterns among postmenopausal women in a managed care organization

.

Bone

23

(

Suppl 5

):

S502

.

Google Scholar

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

57

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

1998

Osteoporosis among estrogen‐deficient women United States, 1988‐1994

.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep

47

:

969

–

973

.

PubMed

OpenURL Placeholder Text

WorldCat

58

Torgerson

DJ

,

Dolan

P

1998

Prescribing by general practitioners after an osteoporotic fracture

.

Ann Rheum Dis

57

:

378

–

379

.

59

Pal

B

1999

Questionnaire survey of advice given to patients with fractures

.

Br Med J

318

:

500

–

501

.

Google Scholar

Crossref

WorldCat

Appendix

Published Relative Risk Estimates and Confidence Intervals Used to Calculate the Pooled Estimates Shown in Table 1

Appendix 1.

Published Relative Risk Estimates and Confidence Intervals Used to Calculate the Pooled Estimates Shown in Table 1

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)⁽¹⁷⁾	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)⁽²³⁾
					1.9 (1.5, 2.3)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	2.8 (2.2, 3.6)⁽²⁵⁾,^c	5.2 (4.5, 5.9)⁽²⁵⁾	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)⁽²⁴⁾	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)⁽²⁰⁾
		(Women)	(Women)	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)⁽²²⁾	1.5 (1.2, 1.9)⁽²¹⁾
					(Women)
		2.1 (1.4, 2.9)⁽²⁵⁾	10.7 (6.7, 16.3)⁽²⁵⁾	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)⁽²⁵⁾	2.3 (1.2, 4.5)⁽²¹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)^d	(Men)	(Women)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Women)
		2.6 (0.7, 6.5)⁽²⁵⁾,^c		2.5 (1.9, 3.1)⁽²⁵⁾	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Men)
		(Men)		(Men)
		24.1 (6.6, 61.7)⁽²⁵⁾
		(Men)^d
Vertebral	Peri/po stmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)⁽³³⁾	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)⁽³³⁾, ^a,b	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)⁽³³⁾, ^a	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)⁽³⁰⁾
			3.9 (2.9, 5.2)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.8 (1.5, 2.2)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)⁽³³⁾, ^a
					2.6 (1.5, 4.5)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a
					2.4 (1.6, 3.5)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	33 (24, 43)⁽²⁹⁾ (Men)	1.5 (1.3, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)⁽³¹⁾
		3.3 (0.4, 12)⁽²⁹⁾	11.1 (9.7, 13)⁽²⁹⁾	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)⁽²²⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)⁽³²⁾
		(Men)
		1.5 (0.9,2.3)⁽²⁹⁾	(Women)	4.4 (1.5, 13.3)⁽³⁸⁾, ^a	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)⁽²⁹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)⁽²⁴⁾	2.1 (1.6,2.7)⁽²⁹⁾
				4.2 (3.2,5.3)	(Women)
				(Men)⁽²⁹⁾
				2.7 (2.4, 3.0)⁽²⁹⁾
				(Men)
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/po stmenopausal	2.3 (1.1, 4.6)⁽²⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^b	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)⁽²⁶⁾	2.4(1.3, 4.0)⁽³⁰⁾
		1.7 (1.2, 2.3)⁽⁴⁴⁾	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)⁽³⁹⁾, ^b	2.8 (2.0, 4.1)⁽²⁷⁾	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
			2.3 (2.0, 2.7)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽¹¹⁾	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)⁽⁴¹⁾
				1.4 (0.9, 2.2)⁽⁴⁴⁾	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)⁽¹⁹⁾
					2.2 (1.6, 2.6)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	−	−	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)⁽⁴⁵⁾	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)⁽⁴⁷⁾
				1.4 (1.2, 1.6)⁽⁴⁷⁾	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)⁽⁴⁶⁾
				3.1 (1.1, 8.6)⁽³⁸⁾	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
				1.2 (1.1, 1.3)⁽¹⁴⁾	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)⁽⁴³⁾
					3.7 (2.2, 6.2)⁽⁴⁸⁾
Hip	Peri/po stmenopausal	—	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^a	1.9 (NA)⁽¹⁸⁾, ^e	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)⁽¹⁷⁾
			2.5 (1.9, 3.9)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)⁽²²⁾	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)⁽⁵⁰⁾
				1.6 (1.0, 5.4)⁽²⁴⁾

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)⁽¹⁷⁾	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)⁽²³⁾
					1.9 (1.5, 2.3)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	2.8 (2.2, 3.6)⁽²⁵⁾,^c	5.2 (4.5, 5.9)⁽²⁵⁾	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)⁽²⁴⁾	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)⁽²⁰⁾
		(Women)	(Women)	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)⁽²²⁾	1.5 (1.2, 1.9)⁽²¹⁾
					(Women)
		2.1 (1.4, 2.9)⁽²⁵⁾	10.7 (6.7, 16.3)⁽²⁵⁾	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)⁽²⁵⁾	2.3 (1.2, 4.5)⁽²¹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)^d	(Men)	(Women)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Women)
		2.6 (0.7, 6.5)⁽²⁵⁾,^c		2.5 (1.9, 3.1)⁽²⁵⁾	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Men)
		(Men)		(Men)
		24.1 (6.6, 61.7)⁽²⁵⁾
		(Men)^d
Vertebral	Peri/po stmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)⁽³³⁾	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)⁽³³⁾, ^a,b	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)⁽³³⁾, ^a	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)⁽³⁰⁾
			3.9 (2.9, 5.2)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.8 (1.5, 2.2)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)⁽³³⁾, ^a
					2.6 (1.5, 4.5)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a
					2.4 (1.6, 3.5)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	33 (24, 43)⁽²⁹⁾ (Men)	1.5 (1.3, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)⁽³¹⁾
		3.3 (0.4, 12)⁽²⁹⁾	11.1 (9.7, 13)⁽²⁹⁾	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)⁽²²⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)⁽³²⁾
		(Men)
		1.5 (0.9,2.3)⁽²⁹⁾	(Women)	4.4 (1.5, 13.3)⁽³⁸⁾, ^a	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)⁽²⁹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)⁽²⁴⁾	2.1 (1.6,2.7)⁽²⁹⁾
				4.2 (3.2,5.3)	(Women)
				(Men)⁽²⁹⁾
				2.7 (2.4, 3.0)⁽²⁹⁾
				(Men)
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/po stmenopausal	2.3 (1.1, 4.6)⁽²⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^b	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)⁽²⁶⁾	2.4(1.3, 4.0)⁽³⁰⁾
		1.7 (1.2, 2.3)⁽⁴⁴⁾	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)⁽³⁹⁾, ^b	2.8 (2.0, 4.1)⁽²⁷⁾	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
			2.3 (2.0, 2.7)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽¹¹⁾	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)⁽⁴¹⁾
				1.4 (0.9, 2.2)⁽⁴⁴⁾	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)⁽¹⁹⁾
					2.2 (1.6, 2.6)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	−	−	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)⁽⁴⁵⁾	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)⁽⁴⁷⁾
				1.4 (1.2, 1.6)⁽⁴⁷⁾	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)⁽⁴⁶⁾
				3.1 (1.1, 8.6)⁽³⁸⁾	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
				1.2 (1.1, 1.3)⁽¹⁴⁾	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)⁽⁴³⁾
					3.7 (2.2, 6.2)⁽⁴⁸⁾
Hip	Peri/po stmenopausal	—	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^a	1.9 (NA)⁽¹⁸⁾, ^e	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)⁽¹⁷⁾
			2.5 (1.9, 3.9)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)⁽²²⁾	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)⁽⁵⁰⁾
				1.6 (1.0, 5.4)⁽²⁴⁾

^a Prior vertebral fractures were diagnosed using morphometry in these studies; prior vertebral fractures were clinically diagnosed in all other studies in the “prior vertebral fracture” row.

^b New vertebral fractures were diagnosed using morphometry in these studies; new vertebral fractures were clinically diagnosed in other studies.

^c Prior wrist fracture occurred before age 70.

^d Prior wrist fracture occurred after age 70.

^e NA = no CI reported.

Open in new tab

Appendix 1.

Published Relative Risk Estimates and Confidence Intervals Used to Calculate the Pooled Estimates Shown in Table 1

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)⁽¹⁷⁾	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)⁽²³⁾
					1.9 (1.5, 2.3)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	2.8 (2.2, 3.6)⁽²⁵⁾,^c	5.2 (4.5, 5.9)⁽²⁵⁾	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)⁽²⁴⁾	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)⁽²⁰⁾
		(Women)	(Women)	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)⁽²²⁾	1.5 (1.2, 1.9)⁽²¹⁾
					(Women)
		2.1 (1.4, 2.9)⁽²⁵⁾	10.7 (6.7, 16.3)⁽²⁵⁾	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)⁽²⁵⁾	2.3 (1.2, 4.5)⁽²¹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)^d	(Men)	(Women)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Women)
		2.6 (0.7, 6.5)⁽²⁵⁾,^c		2.5 (1.9, 3.1)⁽²⁵⁾	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Men)
		(Men)		(Men)
		24.1 (6.6, 61.7)⁽²⁵⁾
		(Men)^d
Vertebral	Peri/po stmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)⁽³³⁾	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)⁽³³⁾, ^a,b	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)⁽³³⁾, ^a	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)⁽³⁰⁾
			3.9 (2.9, 5.2)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.8 (1.5, 2.2)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)⁽³³⁾, ^a
					2.6 (1.5, 4.5)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a
					2.4 (1.6, 3.5)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	33 (24, 43)⁽²⁹⁾ (Men)	1.5 (1.3, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)⁽³¹⁾
		3.3 (0.4, 12)⁽²⁹⁾	11.1 (9.7, 13)⁽²⁹⁾	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)⁽²²⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)⁽³²⁾
		(Men)
		1.5 (0.9,2.3)⁽²⁹⁾	(Women)	4.4 (1.5, 13.3)⁽³⁸⁾, ^a	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)⁽²⁹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)⁽²⁴⁾	2.1 (1.6,2.7)⁽²⁹⁾
				4.2 (3.2,5.3)	(Women)
				(Men)⁽²⁹⁾
				2.7 (2.4, 3.0)⁽²⁹⁾
				(Men)
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/po stmenopausal	2.3 (1.1, 4.6)⁽²⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^b	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)⁽²⁶⁾	2.4(1.3, 4.0)⁽³⁰⁾
		1.7 (1.2, 2.3)⁽⁴⁴⁾	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)⁽³⁹⁾, ^b	2.8 (2.0, 4.1)⁽²⁷⁾	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
			2.3 (2.0, 2.7)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽¹¹⁾	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)⁽⁴¹⁾
				1.4 (0.9, 2.2)⁽⁴⁴⁾	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)⁽¹⁹⁾
					2.2 (1.6, 2.6)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	−	−	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)⁽⁴⁵⁾	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)⁽⁴⁷⁾
				1.4 (1.2, 1.6)⁽⁴⁷⁾	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)⁽⁴⁶⁾
				3.1 (1.1, 8.6)⁽³⁸⁾	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
				1.2 (1.1, 1.3)⁽¹⁴⁾	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)⁽⁴³⁾
					3.7 (2.2, 6.2)⁽⁴⁸⁾
Hip	Peri/po stmenopausal	—	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^a	1.9 (NA)⁽¹⁸⁾, ^e	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)⁽¹⁷⁾
			2.5 (1.9, 3.9)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)⁽²²⁾	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)⁽⁵⁰⁾
				1.6 (1.0, 5.4)⁽²⁴⁾

		Location of subsequent fractures
Location of prior fracture	Population	Wrist	Vertebral	All (or nonspine)	Hip
Wrist	Peri/postmenopausal	3.3 (2.0, 5.3)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)⁽¹⁷⁾	2.4 (1.7, 3.4)⁽¹⁹⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)⁽²³⁾
					1.9 (1.5, 2.3)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	2.8 (2.2, 3.6)⁽²⁵⁾,^c	5.2 (4.5, 5.9)⁽²⁵⁾	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)⁽²⁴⁾	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)⁽²⁰⁾
		(Women)	(Women)	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)⁽²²⁾	1.5 (1.2, 1.9)⁽²¹⁾
					(Women)
		2.1 (1.4, 2.9)⁽²⁵⁾	10.7 (6.7, 16.3)⁽²⁵⁾	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)⁽²⁵⁾	2.3 (1.2, 4.5)⁽²¹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)^d	(Men)	(Women)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Women)
		2.6 (0.7, 6.5)⁽²⁵⁾,^c		2.5 (1.9, 3.1)⁽²⁵⁾	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)⁽²⁵⁾
					(Men)
		(Men)		(Men)
		24.1 (6.6, 61.7)⁽²⁵⁾
		(Men)^d
Vertebral	Peri/po stmenopausal	1.4 (1.2, 1.7)⁽³³⁾	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)⁽³³⁾, ^a,b	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)⁽³³⁾, ^a	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)⁽³⁰⁾
			3.9 (2.9, 5.2)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.8 (1.5, 2.2)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)⁽³³⁾, ^a
					2.6 (1.5, 4.5)⁽³⁴⁾, ^a
					2.4 (1.6, 3.5)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	33 (24, 43)⁽²⁹⁾ (Men)	1.5 (1.3, 1.8)⁽³¹⁾	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)⁽³¹⁾
		3.3 (0.4, 12)⁽²⁹⁾	11.1 (9.7, 13)⁽²⁹⁾	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)⁽²²⁾	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)⁽³²⁾
		(Men)
		1.5 (0.9,2.3)⁽²⁹⁾	(Women)	4.4 (1.5, 13.3)⁽³⁸⁾, ^a	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)⁽²⁹⁾
					(Men)
		(Women)		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)⁽²⁴⁾	2.1 (1.6,2.7)⁽²⁹⁾
				4.2 (3.2,5.3)	(Women)
				(Men)⁽²⁹⁾
				2.7 (2.4, 3.0)⁽²⁹⁾
				(Men)
Other (all, or specific sites)	Peri/po stmenopausal	2.3 (1.1, 4.6)⁽²⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^b	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)⁽²⁶⁾	2.4(1.3, 4.0)⁽³⁰⁾
		1.7 (1.2, 2.3)⁽⁴⁴⁾	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)⁽³⁹⁾, ^b	2.8 (2.0, 4.1)⁽²⁷⁾	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
			2.3 (2.0, 2.7)⁽¹⁷⁾	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)⁽¹¹⁾	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)⁽⁴¹⁾
				1.4 (0.9, 2.2)⁽⁴⁴⁾	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)⁽¹⁹⁾
					2.2 (1.6, 2.6)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	−	−	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)⁽⁴⁵⁾	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)⁽⁴⁷⁾
				1.4 (1.2, 1.6)⁽⁴⁷⁾	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)⁽⁴⁶⁾
				3.1 (1.1, 8.6)⁽³⁸⁾	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)⁽²³⁾
				1.2 (1.1, 1.3)⁽¹⁴⁾	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)⁽⁴³⁾
					3.7 (2.2, 6.2)⁽⁴⁸⁾
Hip	Peri/po stmenopausal	—	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)⁽⁴²⁾, ^a	1.9 (NA)⁽¹⁸⁾, ^e	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)⁽¹⁷⁾
			2.5 (1.9, 3.9)⁽¹⁷⁾
	Other	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)⁽²²⁾	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)⁽⁵⁰⁾
				1.6 (1.0, 5.4)⁽²⁴⁾

^a Prior vertebral fractures were diagnosed using morphometry in these studies; prior vertebral fractures were clinically diagnosed in all other studies in the “prior vertebral fracture” row.

^b New vertebral fractures were diagnosed using morphometry in these studies; new vertebral fractures were clinically diagnosed in other studies.

^c Prior wrist fracture occurred before age 70.

^d Prior wrist fracture occurred after age 70.

^e NA = no CI reported.

Open in new tab

Appendix

Descriptions and Relative Risk Estimates from Published Studies, by Locations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

Appendix 2.

Descriptions and Relative Risk Estimates from Published Studies, by Locations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

Prior fracture location	Study population	Study design	Follow‐up	Vertebral fracture	All fractures	Hip fracture	Comments
Wrist Distal radius⁽²³⁾	1162 F 20‐99 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 49) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4.0 yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)	Some previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx.
	F 60‐79 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Age 60‐79 yr subset; 31 new hip frx		—	—	1.9 (1.3, 2.6)	See above.
Wrist⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 144 had wrist frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = wrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 17)	NA	—	3.3 (2.0, 5.3) [wrist only]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
	Same as above	See above; outcome = nonwrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 30)	NA	—	2.4 (1.7, 3.4) [nonwrist]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
Colles⁽²⁰⁾	350 F & 44 M with Colles' frx between 1945‐1959; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ & sex‐specific incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 54) to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	6145 pt‐yr	—	—	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)	Men & women combined
	350 F only	See above; 47 hip frx		—	—	1.3 (0.9, 1.7)	Women only
	344 F & 36 M excluding violent Colles' frx	See above; 53 hip frx		—	—	1.5 (1.1, 1.9)	Men & women
Distal forearm⁽²¹⁾	1126 F & 212 M ages 40+, with distal forearm frx between 1968‐1972; population‐based sample	Compared to 1126 F & 212 M age‐ & sex‐matched controls; population‐based sample	40,832 pt‐yr (follow‐up through 1991); 365 new hip frxs	—	—	F:1.5 (1.2, 1.9) M: 2.3 (1.2, 4.5)
Distal forearm⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 283 with distal forearm frx	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 258 F).	11 yr	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)	—
Distal radius⁽¹⁸⁾	490 F ages 45 or older with a distal radius frx in 1981; mean age = 66 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 75 F) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	2.1 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age
Distal radius⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 82 had prior distal radius frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)	—	Men only
Forearm⁽²⁵⁾	243 men, 1045 women ages 35 with prior distal forearm frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	548 patients had new frx during 9664 pt‐yr follow‐up; 104 forearm, 249 vertebral, 78 hip	—	2.8 (women) (2.2, 3.6) 2.6 (men) (0.7, 6.5)	—	New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx before age 70
					2.1 (women) (1.4, 2.9)		New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx after age 70
					24.1 (men) (6.6, 61.7)
				5.2 (4.5, 5.9)	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	Women
				10.7 (6.7, 16.3)	2.5 (1.9, 3.1)	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)	Men
Wrist⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	—	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)
Spine Vertebral (clinical)⁽³¹⁾	186 M & 495 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age < 70 yr between 1950‐1989	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	8,342 pt‐yr; 57 F & 1 M new hip frxs	—	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)	RR = 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 43 F & 5 M new distal forearm frxs	—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8) [distal forearm]	—	RR = 1.5 (1.0, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 58 F & 13 M new proximal humerus frx	—	4.5 (3.5, 5.7) [proximal humerus]	—
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 249 F & 44 M new limb frx	—	1.5 (1.3, 1.8) [any limb]	—	RR = 1.6 (1.3, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
Lumbar spine (clinical)⁽³⁰⁾	70 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 10) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	241 pt‐yr	—	—	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (clinical)⁽³²⁾	336 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age 35‐69 yr between 1950‐1979, and no prior hip frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 52) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4788 pt‐yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	No difference in association for vertebral fractures before vs. after age 60 Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁴⁾	3013 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort)	2.9 yr; 454 new nonpine frx, including 56 new hip	—	1.8 (1.5, 2.2) [nonspine]	2.6 (1.5, 4.5)	Age‐adjusted
	Same	Same	Same	—	1.7 (1.4, 2.1) [nonspine]	2.2 (1.3, 3.8)	Adjusted for age & BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 87 with prior vertebral frx.	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 frx in 258 women)	11 yr	—	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)	—
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³³⁾	7238 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort). N = 389 women with new vertebral frx, defined as >20% decrease in vertebral height; n = 2433 women with new nonvertebral frx	3.7 yr for vertebral frx, 8.3 yr for nonvertebral frx	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)	Age‐adjusted
				4.1 (3.3, 5.1)	1.6 (1.5, 1.8)	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)	Adjusted for age & BMD
				3.8 (3.1, 4.7)	1.5 (1.4, 1.6)	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	Adjusted for age, BMD, & other variables
Two or more morphometric frx⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort) New vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	2.9 yr	3.2	1.5	—	Compared to women with a single morphometric vertebral frx Not adjusted for age
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁹⁾	1098 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	4.2 (2.2, 8.0)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric) plus nonspine⁽³⁹⁾	Same	Same	Same	3.4(1.0, 11.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine fractures (only), and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁶⁾	893 F, age 43‐80; 83 had morphometric (3 SD) crush or wedge vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort) Incident frx defined as 15+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 61) Adjusted for age	4.7 yr
Single crush frx				5.3 (1.9, 15.2)	—	—
Single wedge frx				4.1 (2.1, 8.1)	—	—
2 or more crush or wedge frx				11.8 (5.1, 26.8)	—	—
Vertebral (radiographic)⁽³⁷⁾	380 F in a clinical trial; mean age = 65 yr Semiquantitative frx diagnosis; 287 had frx at baseline	Prospective; 47 new vertebral frx	2.9 yr		—	—
1‐2 frx				7.4 (1.0, 55.9)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 3‐4 frx, and 5 + frx at baseline
3‐4 frx				25.8 (3.4, 194.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 5+ frx at baseline
5+ frx				34.6 (4.6, 257.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 3‐4 frx at baseline
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new non‐spine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr All had spine radiographs at baseline	Nested case‐control (1:4). Mild spinal deformity was present in 119 people, and severe deformity in 24.	1.7 yr				Adjusted for age & sex
Mild		Mild spinal deformity = 1 to 3 vertebra with height ratios 2 to 3 SD below the mean (grade I), or a single vertebra with height ratio more than 3 SD below the mean (grade II)		—	1.6 (0.7, 3.5) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 1.5 (0.6, 3.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Severe		Severe spinal deformity = more than 3 grade I or more than one grade II deformities		—	4.4 (1.5, 13.3) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 4.1 (1.3, 12.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 31 had prior vertebral frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)		Men only
Spine (clinical)⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	3.9 (2.9, 5.2)	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.5)
Vertebral (clinical⁽²⁹⁾	151 men, 589 women ages ≥ 35 yr with prior clinical vertebral frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	432 patients (all ages) had 896 new frx during 4349 pt‐yr follow‐up; 34 distal forearm, 398 vertebral, 96 hip	33 (24, 43)	4.2 (3.2, 5.3)	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)	Men
				11.1 (9.7, 13)	2.7 (2.4, 3.0)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	Women
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽⁵³⁾	6082 F age 55‐81 yr in a clinical trial with low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6)	Prospective (cohort) 344 women had new vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	3.8 yr	Placebo group 3.0 (2.2, 4.1) Alendronate 2.9 (1.9, 4.3)			Women with prior vertebral frx had 1.4 yr shorter follow‐up—therefore, analysis probably underestimates association, and was not pooled with other studies. Adjusted for age, weight, BMD.
Other Single prior frx⁽²⁶⁾	1857 F, age 45‐49 at baseline; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort); postal survey 2 yr after baseline examination; 44 new frx.	2 yr	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx. RR = 2.1 (1.0, 4.3) adjusted for age & BMD
2 + prior frxs				—	5.9 (2.6, 3.4)	—	RR = 4.0 (1.7, 9.5) adjusted for age & BMD
Any frx in prior 10 yr⁽²⁷⁾	3014 F age 47‐56 (mean = 53 yr); population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = any nonviolent frx (n = 157), including wrist (n = 42)	2.4 yr	—	2.8 (2.0, 4.1) [all frxs]	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx
					2.3 (1.1, 4.6) [wrist only]
Tibia or ankle⁽⁴⁵⁾	317 M & 174 F with tibial shaft frx between 1949‐ 1963 (mean age at frx = 29), or ankle frx between 1961‐1965 (mean age at frx = 38 yr); 51% of tibia and 15% of ankle frx were due to violent force Population‐based sample.	Compared to double sex‐and age‐matched controls; population‐based sample. Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle prior to 1992 (n = 215)	Not given	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)	—	Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx. Sample represents only about one‐third of all patients with prior fractures—remainder were lost to follow‐up
Any frx before age 50⁽⁴⁷⁾	7459 F born between 1900‐1940; only 4223 analyzed, of which 268 had frx prior to age 50	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx after age 50 (n = 1132)	NA	—	1.4 (1.2, 1.6)	—	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx. Analyses may be suspect: only 4223 women were included in analyses, results of a poorly‐defined “control group” are reported separately, and it is not clear if the analyses accounted adequately for possible differences in age and time at risk
Any frx after age 30	Same, but number with prior frx not available	Same, but outcome = “hip frx later in life”		—	—	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)	See above
Any previous fracture⁽⁴⁶⁾	246 hip fracture cases; F & M, mean 80 yr (F) and 74 yr (M). Excluded if institutionalized, poor cognition, or violent hip fracture	Case control; 246 age‐ & sex‐matched controls	1 yr	—	—	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)	About half of all hip fracture cases (n = 225) were excluded, leaving only 246
Any frx between age 20‐34⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 553 had frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx at age 35‐57 (n = 1782)	NA	—	—	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)	Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal women Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx
Olecranon⁽³⁰⁾	52 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 5) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	180 pt‐yr	—	—	2.6 (0.9, 6.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx Low power (0.44) for prior olecranon frx
Knee	129 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 14 new hip frxs	469 pt‐yr	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.0)	See above
Ankle	200 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 8 new hip frxs	779 pt‐yr	—	—	1.3 (0.6, 2.7)	See above. Low power (0.12) for prior ankle frx
Proximal humerus⁽²³⁾	406 F 20‐99 yr with proximal humerus frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 32) to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	3.7 yr	—	—	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx
Proximal humerus	F 60‐79 yr	Subset of study above; 16 new hip frx	3.7 yr	—	—	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)	See above
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴¹⁾	9516 F age 65 +	Prospective (cohort); 192 new hip frxs	4.1 yr	—	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)	Adjusted for age, bone density, and 14 other covariates
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior hip frx, and smoking
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴³⁾	2879 M age 45 or older	Prospective (cohort); 71 new hip frx	39,914 p‐yr	—	—	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)	Men only. Adjustment for covariates including BMD had no effect
Frx since age 45⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort); 183 new clinical frx, 145 new morphometric vertebral frx cases	2.9 yr	1.4 (CI not given)	1.3 (CI not given) [clinical frx]	—	All women had low BMD and at least one morphometric vertebral frx. Not adjusted for age
Wrist or hip⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new nonspine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr.	Nested case‐control (1:4)	1.7 yr	—	3.1 (1.1, 8.6)		Adjusted for age & sex
Nonspine frx only (no spine frx⁽³⁹⁾	893 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior spine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Any frx (since age 50?)⁽¹¹⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	5.9 yr
		Outcome = new frx of ankle (191 women)		—	Not significant	—	New ankle frx only
		Outcome = new frx of foot (204 women)		—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)	—	New foot frx only
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴⁴⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	2.2 yr
		Outcome = new frx of distal forearm (171 women)		—	1.7 (1.2, 2.3) [wrist]	—	New distal forearm frx only
							Not adjusted for age
							Not significant after adjustment for covariates (adjusted RR = 1.3)
		Outcome = new frx of proximal humerus (79 women)		—	1.4 (0.9, 2.2) [humerus]	—	New proximal humerus frx only
Any frx in prior 5 yrs⁽¹⁴⁾	820 M age 60 or more; 752 had baseline BMD measurements.	Prospective (cohort); 166 new atraumatic frxs	5 yr	—	1.2 (1.1, 1.3)	—	Men only. R = 1.4 (1.2, 1.5) after adjusting for BMD
Distal forearm, proximal humerus, pelvis, or vertebra⁽⁴⁸⁾	232 M ages 35+ with hip frx between 1965‐1989, excluding pathologic or violent frx; mean age 79 yr. Population‐based sample; 84 M had prior forearm, spine, pelvis, or humerus frx	Case control; 232 M controls without hip frx.	37 yr	—	—	3.7 (2.2, 6.2)	Men only
Wrist, hip, humerus, or spine⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.3 (2.0, 2.7)	—	2.2 (1.6, 2.6)
Hip Hip⁽⁵⁰⁾	914 F (mean 75 yr) & 231 M (mean 71 yr) with prior hip fracture; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ and sex‐ specific incidence of new hip frx (n = 106) among cases to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	10,441 pt‐yr	—	—	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)	For all hip fractures
	F & M	Subanalysis of study above	99 new frx	—	—	1.8*	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	M only		11 new frx			3.2*
	F only		88 new frx			1.7*
	Frx before age 60 (F & M)	Subanalysis of study above, analyzed by age group	11 new frx	—	—	3.9^‡	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	Frx at ages 60‐69 (F & M)		24 new frx			3.0^‡
	Frx at age 70+ (F & M)		64 new frx			1.4^†
Hip⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior non‐hip frx, and smoking
Trochanteric hip frx⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 40 F with prior trochanteric hip frx	Prospective (cohort) Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 new frx in 258 women).	11 yr	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)	—
Hip⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 39 had prior hip frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.6 (1.0, 5.4)		Men only
Hip frx in 1981⁽¹⁸⁾	432 F ages 45 or older with a hip frx in 1981; mean age = 80 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 31 hip, 24 other frx) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	1.9 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age. Also, mortality was 67% during 6 yrs after the initial hip frx
Hip⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.5 (1.9, 3.9)	—	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)

Prior fracture location	Study population	Study design	Follow‐up	Vertebral fracture	All fractures	Hip fracture	Comments
Wrist Distal radius⁽²³⁾	1162 F 20‐99 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 49) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4.0 yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)	Some previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx.
	F 60‐79 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Age 60‐79 yr subset; 31 new hip frx		—	—	1.9 (1.3, 2.6)	See above.
Wrist⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 144 had wrist frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = wrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 17)	NA	—	3.3 (2.0, 5.3) [wrist only]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
	Same as above	See above; outcome = nonwrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 30)	NA	—	2.4 (1.7, 3.4) [nonwrist]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
Colles⁽²⁰⁾	350 F & 44 M with Colles' frx between 1945‐1959; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ & sex‐specific incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 54) to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	6145 pt‐yr	—	—	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)	Men & women combined
	350 F only	See above; 47 hip frx		—	—	1.3 (0.9, 1.7)	Women only
	344 F & 36 M excluding violent Colles' frx	See above; 53 hip frx		—	—	1.5 (1.1, 1.9)	Men & women
Distal forearm⁽²¹⁾	1126 F & 212 M ages 40+, with distal forearm frx between 1968‐1972; population‐based sample	Compared to 1126 F & 212 M age‐ & sex‐matched controls; population‐based sample	40,832 pt‐yr (follow‐up through 1991); 365 new hip frxs	—	—	F:1.5 (1.2, 1.9) M: 2.3 (1.2, 4.5)
Distal forearm⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 283 with distal forearm frx	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 258 F).	11 yr	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)	—
Distal radius⁽¹⁸⁾	490 F ages 45 or older with a distal radius frx in 1981; mean age = 66 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 75 F) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	2.1 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age
Distal radius⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 82 had prior distal radius frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)	—	Men only
Forearm⁽²⁵⁾	243 men, 1045 women ages 35 with prior distal forearm frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	548 patients had new frx during 9664 pt‐yr follow‐up; 104 forearm, 249 vertebral, 78 hip	—	2.8 (women) (2.2, 3.6) 2.6 (men) (0.7, 6.5)	—	New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx before age 70
					2.1 (women) (1.4, 2.9)		New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx after age 70
					24.1 (men) (6.6, 61.7)
				5.2 (4.5, 5.9)	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	Women
				10.7 (6.7, 16.3)	2.5 (1.9, 3.1)	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)	Men
Wrist⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	—	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)
Spine Vertebral (clinical)⁽³¹⁾	186 M & 495 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age < 70 yr between 1950‐1989	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	8,342 pt‐yr; 57 F & 1 M new hip frxs	—	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)	RR = 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 43 F & 5 M new distal forearm frxs	—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8) [distal forearm]	—	RR = 1.5 (1.0, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 58 F & 13 M new proximal humerus frx	—	4.5 (3.5, 5.7) [proximal humerus]	—
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 249 F & 44 M new limb frx	—	1.5 (1.3, 1.8) [any limb]	—	RR = 1.6 (1.3, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
Lumbar spine (clinical)⁽³⁰⁾	70 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 10) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	241 pt‐yr	—	—	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (clinical)⁽³²⁾	336 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age 35‐69 yr between 1950‐1979, and no prior hip frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 52) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4788 pt‐yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	No difference in association for vertebral fractures before vs. after age 60 Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁴⁾	3013 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort)	2.9 yr; 454 new nonpine frx, including 56 new hip	—	1.8 (1.5, 2.2) [nonspine]	2.6 (1.5, 4.5)	Age‐adjusted
	Same	Same	Same	—	1.7 (1.4, 2.1) [nonspine]	2.2 (1.3, 3.8)	Adjusted for age & BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 87 with prior vertebral frx.	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 frx in 258 women)	11 yr	—	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)	—
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³³⁾	7238 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort). N = 389 women with new vertebral frx, defined as >20% decrease in vertebral height; n = 2433 women with new nonvertebral frx	3.7 yr for vertebral frx, 8.3 yr for nonvertebral frx	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)	Age‐adjusted
				4.1 (3.3, 5.1)	1.6 (1.5, 1.8)	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)	Adjusted for age & BMD
				3.8 (3.1, 4.7)	1.5 (1.4, 1.6)	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	Adjusted for age, BMD, & other variables
Two or more morphometric frx⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort) New vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	2.9 yr	3.2	1.5	—	Compared to women with a single morphometric vertebral frx Not adjusted for age
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁹⁾	1098 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	4.2 (2.2, 8.0)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric) plus nonspine⁽³⁹⁾	Same	Same	Same	3.4(1.0, 11.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine fractures (only), and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁶⁾	893 F, age 43‐80; 83 had morphometric (3 SD) crush or wedge vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort) Incident frx defined as 15+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 61) Adjusted for age	4.7 yr
Single crush frx				5.3 (1.9, 15.2)	—	—
Single wedge frx				4.1 (2.1, 8.1)	—	—
2 or more crush or wedge frx				11.8 (5.1, 26.8)	—	—
Vertebral (radiographic)⁽³⁷⁾	380 F in a clinical trial; mean age = 65 yr Semiquantitative frx diagnosis; 287 had frx at baseline	Prospective; 47 new vertebral frx	2.9 yr		—	—
1‐2 frx				7.4 (1.0, 55.9)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 3‐4 frx, and 5 + frx at baseline
3‐4 frx				25.8 (3.4, 194.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 5+ frx at baseline
5+ frx				34.6 (4.6, 257.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 3‐4 frx at baseline
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new non‐spine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr All had spine radiographs at baseline	Nested case‐control (1:4). Mild spinal deformity was present in 119 people, and severe deformity in 24.	1.7 yr				Adjusted for age & sex
Mild		Mild spinal deformity = 1 to 3 vertebra with height ratios 2 to 3 SD below the mean (grade I), or a single vertebra with height ratio more than 3 SD below the mean (grade II)		—	1.6 (0.7, 3.5) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 1.5 (0.6, 3.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Severe		Severe spinal deformity = more than 3 grade I or more than one grade II deformities		—	4.4 (1.5, 13.3) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 4.1 (1.3, 12.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 31 had prior vertebral frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)		Men only
Spine (clinical)⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	3.9 (2.9, 5.2)	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.5)
Vertebral (clinical⁽²⁹⁾	151 men, 589 women ages ≥ 35 yr with prior clinical vertebral frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	432 patients (all ages) had 896 new frx during 4349 pt‐yr follow‐up; 34 distal forearm, 398 vertebral, 96 hip	33 (24, 43)	4.2 (3.2, 5.3)	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)	Men
				11.1 (9.7, 13)	2.7 (2.4, 3.0)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	Women
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽⁵³⁾	6082 F age 55‐81 yr in a clinical trial with low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6)	Prospective (cohort) 344 women had new vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	3.8 yr	Placebo group 3.0 (2.2, 4.1) Alendronate 2.9 (1.9, 4.3)			Women with prior vertebral frx had 1.4 yr shorter follow‐up—therefore, analysis probably underestimates association, and was not pooled with other studies. Adjusted for age, weight, BMD.
Other Single prior frx⁽²⁶⁾	1857 F, age 45‐49 at baseline; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort); postal survey 2 yr after baseline examination; 44 new frx.	2 yr	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx. RR = 2.1 (1.0, 4.3) adjusted for age & BMD
2 + prior frxs				—	5.9 (2.6, 3.4)	—	RR = 4.0 (1.7, 9.5) adjusted for age & BMD
Any frx in prior 10 yr⁽²⁷⁾	3014 F age 47‐56 (mean = 53 yr); population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = any nonviolent frx (n = 157), including wrist (n = 42)	2.4 yr	—	2.8 (2.0, 4.1) [all frxs]	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx
					2.3 (1.1, 4.6) [wrist only]
Tibia or ankle⁽⁴⁵⁾	317 M & 174 F with tibial shaft frx between 1949‐ 1963 (mean age at frx = 29), or ankle frx between 1961‐1965 (mean age at frx = 38 yr); 51% of tibia and 15% of ankle frx were due to violent force Population‐based sample.	Compared to double sex‐and age‐matched controls; population‐based sample. Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle prior to 1992 (n = 215)	Not given	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)	—	Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx. Sample represents only about one‐third of all patients with prior fractures—remainder were lost to follow‐up
Any frx before age 50⁽⁴⁷⁾	7459 F born between 1900‐1940; only 4223 analyzed, of which 268 had frx prior to age 50	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx after age 50 (n = 1132)	NA	—	1.4 (1.2, 1.6)	—	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx. Analyses may be suspect: only 4223 women were included in analyses, results of a poorly‐defined “control group” are reported separately, and it is not clear if the analyses accounted adequately for possible differences in age and time at risk
Any frx after age 30	Same, but number with prior frx not available	Same, but outcome = “hip frx later in life”		—	—	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)	See above
Any previous fracture⁽⁴⁶⁾	246 hip fracture cases; F & M, mean 80 yr (F) and 74 yr (M). Excluded if institutionalized, poor cognition, or violent hip fracture	Case control; 246 age‐ & sex‐matched controls	1 yr	—	—	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)	About half of all hip fracture cases (n = 225) were excluded, leaving only 246
Any frx between age 20‐34⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 553 had frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx at age 35‐57 (n = 1782)	NA	—	—	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)	Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal women Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx
Olecranon⁽³⁰⁾	52 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 5) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	180 pt‐yr	—	—	2.6 (0.9, 6.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx Low power (0.44) for prior olecranon frx
Knee	129 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 14 new hip frxs	469 pt‐yr	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.0)	See above
Ankle	200 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 8 new hip frxs	779 pt‐yr	—	—	1.3 (0.6, 2.7)	See above. Low power (0.12) for prior ankle frx
Proximal humerus⁽²³⁾	406 F 20‐99 yr with proximal humerus frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 32) to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	3.7 yr	—	—	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx
Proximal humerus	F 60‐79 yr	Subset of study above; 16 new hip frx	3.7 yr	—	—	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)	See above
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴¹⁾	9516 F age 65 +	Prospective (cohort); 192 new hip frxs	4.1 yr	—	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)	Adjusted for age, bone density, and 14 other covariates
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior hip frx, and smoking
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴³⁾	2879 M age 45 or older	Prospective (cohort); 71 new hip frx	39,914 p‐yr	—	—	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)	Men only. Adjustment for covariates including BMD had no effect
Frx since age 45⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort); 183 new clinical frx, 145 new morphometric vertebral frx cases	2.9 yr	1.4 (CI not given)	1.3 (CI not given) [clinical frx]	—	All women had low BMD and at least one morphometric vertebral frx. Not adjusted for age
Wrist or hip⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new nonspine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr.	Nested case‐control (1:4)	1.7 yr	—	3.1 (1.1, 8.6)		Adjusted for age & sex
Nonspine frx only (no spine frx⁽³⁹⁾	893 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior spine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Any frx (since age 50?)⁽¹¹⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	5.9 yr
		Outcome = new frx of ankle (191 women)		—	Not significant	—	New ankle frx only
		Outcome = new frx of foot (204 women)		—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)	—	New foot frx only
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴⁴⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	2.2 yr
		Outcome = new frx of distal forearm (171 women)		—	1.7 (1.2, 2.3) [wrist]	—	New distal forearm frx only
							Not adjusted for age
							Not significant after adjustment for covariates (adjusted RR = 1.3)
		Outcome = new frx of proximal humerus (79 women)		—	1.4 (0.9, 2.2) [humerus]	—	New proximal humerus frx only
Any frx in prior 5 yrs⁽¹⁴⁾	820 M age 60 or more; 752 had baseline BMD measurements.	Prospective (cohort); 166 new atraumatic frxs	5 yr	—	1.2 (1.1, 1.3)	—	Men only. R = 1.4 (1.2, 1.5) after adjusting for BMD
Distal forearm, proximal humerus, pelvis, or vertebra⁽⁴⁸⁾	232 M ages 35+ with hip frx between 1965‐1989, excluding pathologic or violent frx; mean age 79 yr. Population‐based sample; 84 M had prior forearm, spine, pelvis, or humerus frx	Case control; 232 M controls without hip frx.	37 yr	—	—	3.7 (2.2, 6.2)	Men only
Wrist, hip, humerus, or spine⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.3 (2.0, 2.7)	—	2.2 (1.6, 2.6)
Hip Hip⁽⁵⁰⁾	914 F (mean 75 yr) & 231 M (mean 71 yr) with prior hip fracture; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ and sex‐ specific incidence of new hip frx (n = 106) among cases to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	10,441 pt‐yr	—	—	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)	For all hip fractures
	F & M	Subanalysis of study above	99 new frx	—	—	1.8*	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	M only		11 new frx			3.2*
	F only		88 new frx			1.7*
	Frx before age 60 (F & M)	Subanalysis of study above, analyzed by age group	11 new frx	—	—	3.9^‡	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	Frx at ages 60‐69 (F & M)		24 new frx			3.0^‡
	Frx at age 70+ (F & M)		64 new frx			1.4^†
Hip⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior non‐hip frx, and smoking
Trochanteric hip frx⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 40 F with prior trochanteric hip frx	Prospective (cohort) Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 new frx in 258 women).	11 yr	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)	—
Hip⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 39 had prior hip frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.6 (1.0, 5.4)		Men only
Hip frx in 1981⁽¹⁸⁾	432 F ages 45 or older with a hip frx in 1981; mean age = 80 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 31 hip, 24 other frx) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	1.9 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age. Also, mortality was 67% during 6 yrs after the initial hip frx
Hip⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.5 (1.9, 3.9)	—	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)

Studies involved postmenopausal women, except as otherwise noted. RR values shown in bold were used to compile the results in Table 1 and Appendix 1.

F, female; M, male; frx, fracture; yr, year(s); NA, no CI available.

*P < 0.05; ^†P < 0.01; ^‡P < 0.001.

Open in new tab

Appendix 2.

Descriptions and Relative Risk Estimates from Published Studies, by Locations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

Prior fracture location	Study population	Study design	Follow‐up	Vertebral fracture	All fractures	Hip fracture	Comments
Wrist Distal radius⁽²³⁾	1162 F 20‐99 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 49) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4.0 yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)	Some previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx.
	F 60‐79 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Age 60‐79 yr subset; 31 new hip frx		—	—	1.9 (1.3, 2.6)	See above.
Wrist⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 144 had wrist frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = wrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 17)	NA	—	3.3 (2.0, 5.3) [wrist only]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
	Same as above	See above; outcome = nonwrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 30)	NA	—	2.4 (1.7, 3.4) [nonwrist]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
Colles⁽²⁰⁾	350 F & 44 M with Colles' frx between 1945‐1959; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ & sex‐specific incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 54) to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	6145 pt‐yr	—	—	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)	Men & women combined
	350 F only	See above; 47 hip frx		—	—	1.3 (0.9, 1.7)	Women only
	344 F & 36 M excluding violent Colles' frx	See above; 53 hip frx		—	—	1.5 (1.1, 1.9)	Men & women
Distal forearm⁽²¹⁾	1126 F & 212 M ages 40+, with distal forearm frx between 1968‐1972; population‐based sample	Compared to 1126 F & 212 M age‐ & sex‐matched controls; population‐based sample	40,832 pt‐yr (follow‐up through 1991); 365 new hip frxs	—	—	F:1.5 (1.2, 1.9) M: 2.3 (1.2, 4.5)
Distal forearm⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 283 with distal forearm frx	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 258 F).	11 yr	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)	—
Distal radius⁽¹⁸⁾	490 F ages 45 or older with a distal radius frx in 1981; mean age = 66 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 75 F) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	2.1 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age
Distal radius⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 82 had prior distal radius frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)	—	Men only
Forearm⁽²⁵⁾	243 men, 1045 women ages 35 with prior distal forearm frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	548 patients had new frx during 9664 pt‐yr follow‐up; 104 forearm, 249 vertebral, 78 hip	—	2.8 (women) (2.2, 3.6) 2.6 (men) (0.7, 6.5)	—	New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx before age 70
					2.1 (women) (1.4, 2.9)		New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx after age 70
					24.1 (men) (6.6, 61.7)
				5.2 (4.5, 5.9)	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	Women
				10.7 (6.7, 16.3)	2.5 (1.9, 3.1)	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)	Men
Wrist⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	—	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)
Spine Vertebral (clinical)⁽³¹⁾	186 M & 495 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age < 70 yr between 1950‐1989	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	8,342 pt‐yr; 57 F & 1 M new hip frxs	—	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)	RR = 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 43 F & 5 M new distal forearm frxs	—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8) [distal forearm]	—	RR = 1.5 (1.0, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 58 F & 13 M new proximal humerus frx	—	4.5 (3.5, 5.7) [proximal humerus]	—
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 249 F & 44 M new limb frx	—	1.5 (1.3, 1.8) [any limb]	—	RR = 1.6 (1.3, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
Lumbar spine (clinical)⁽³⁰⁾	70 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 10) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	241 pt‐yr	—	—	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (clinical)⁽³²⁾	336 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age 35‐69 yr between 1950‐1979, and no prior hip frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 52) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4788 pt‐yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	No difference in association for vertebral fractures before vs. after age 60 Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁴⁾	3013 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort)	2.9 yr; 454 new nonpine frx, including 56 new hip	—	1.8 (1.5, 2.2) [nonspine]	2.6 (1.5, 4.5)	Age‐adjusted
	Same	Same	Same	—	1.7 (1.4, 2.1) [nonspine]	2.2 (1.3, 3.8)	Adjusted for age & BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 87 with prior vertebral frx.	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 frx in 258 women)	11 yr	—	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)	—
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³³⁾	7238 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort). N = 389 women with new vertebral frx, defined as >20% decrease in vertebral height; n = 2433 women with new nonvertebral frx	3.7 yr for vertebral frx, 8.3 yr for nonvertebral frx	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)	Age‐adjusted
				4.1 (3.3, 5.1)	1.6 (1.5, 1.8)	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)	Adjusted for age & BMD
				3.8 (3.1, 4.7)	1.5 (1.4, 1.6)	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	Adjusted for age, BMD, & other variables
Two or more morphometric frx⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort) New vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	2.9 yr	3.2	1.5	—	Compared to women with a single morphometric vertebral frx Not adjusted for age
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁹⁾	1098 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	4.2 (2.2, 8.0)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric) plus nonspine⁽³⁹⁾	Same	Same	Same	3.4(1.0, 11.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine fractures (only), and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁶⁾	893 F, age 43‐80; 83 had morphometric (3 SD) crush or wedge vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort) Incident frx defined as 15+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 61) Adjusted for age	4.7 yr
Single crush frx				5.3 (1.9, 15.2)	—	—
Single wedge frx				4.1 (2.1, 8.1)	—	—
2 or more crush or wedge frx				11.8 (5.1, 26.8)	—	—
Vertebral (radiographic)⁽³⁷⁾	380 F in a clinical trial; mean age = 65 yr Semiquantitative frx diagnosis; 287 had frx at baseline	Prospective; 47 new vertebral frx	2.9 yr		—	—
1‐2 frx				7.4 (1.0, 55.9)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 3‐4 frx, and 5 + frx at baseline
3‐4 frx				25.8 (3.4, 194.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 5+ frx at baseline
5+ frx				34.6 (4.6, 257.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 3‐4 frx at baseline
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new non‐spine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr All had spine radiographs at baseline	Nested case‐control (1:4). Mild spinal deformity was present in 119 people, and severe deformity in 24.	1.7 yr				Adjusted for age & sex
Mild		Mild spinal deformity = 1 to 3 vertebra with height ratios 2 to 3 SD below the mean (grade I), or a single vertebra with height ratio more than 3 SD below the mean (grade II)		—	1.6 (0.7, 3.5) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 1.5 (0.6, 3.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Severe		Severe spinal deformity = more than 3 grade I or more than one grade II deformities		—	4.4 (1.5, 13.3) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 4.1 (1.3, 12.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 31 had prior vertebral frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)		Men only
Spine (clinical)⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	3.9 (2.9, 5.2)	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.5)
Vertebral (clinical⁽²⁹⁾	151 men, 589 women ages ≥ 35 yr with prior clinical vertebral frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	432 patients (all ages) had 896 new frx during 4349 pt‐yr follow‐up; 34 distal forearm, 398 vertebral, 96 hip	33 (24, 43)	4.2 (3.2, 5.3)	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)	Men
				11.1 (9.7, 13)	2.7 (2.4, 3.0)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	Women
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽⁵³⁾	6082 F age 55‐81 yr in a clinical trial with low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6)	Prospective (cohort) 344 women had new vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	3.8 yr	Placebo group 3.0 (2.2, 4.1) Alendronate 2.9 (1.9, 4.3)			Women with prior vertebral frx had 1.4 yr shorter follow‐up—therefore, analysis probably underestimates association, and was not pooled with other studies. Adjusted for age, weight, BMD.
Other Single prior frx⁽²⁶⁾	1857 F, age 45‐49 at baseline; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort); postal survey 2 yr after baseline examination; 44 new frx.	2 yr	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx. RR = 2.1 (1.0, 4.3) adjusted for age & BMD
2 + prior frxs				—	5.9 (2.6, 3.4)	—	RR = 4.0 (1.7, 9.5) adjusted for age & BMD
Any frx in prior 10 yr⁽²⁷⁾	3014 F age 47‐56 (mean = 53 yr); population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = any nonviolent frx (n = 157), including wrist (n = 42)	2.4 yr	—	2.8 (2.0, 4.1) [all frxs]	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx
					2.3 (1.1, 4.6) [wrist only]
Tibia or ankle⁽⁴⁵⁾	317 M & 174 F with tibial shaft frx between 1949‐ 1963 (mean age at frx = 29), or ankle frx between 1961‐1965 (mean age at frx = 38 yr); 51% of tibia and 15% of ankle frx were due to violent force Population‐based sample.	Compared to double sex‐and age‐matched controls; population‐based sample. Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle prior to 1992 (n = 215)	Not given	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)	—	Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx. Sample represents only about one‐third of all patients with prior fractures—remainder were lost to follow‐up
Any frx before age 50⁽⁴⁷⁾	7459 F born between 1900‐1940; only 4223 analyzed, of which 268 had frx prior to age 50	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx after age 50 (n = 1132)	NA	—	1.4 (1.2, 1.6)	—	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx. Analyses may be suspect: only 4223 women were included in analyses, results of a poorly‐defined “control group” are reported separately, and it is not clear if the analyses accounted adequately for possible differences in age and time at risk
Any frx after age 30	Same, but number with prior frx not available	Same, but outcome = “hip frx later in life”		—	—	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)	See above
Any previous fracture⁽⁴⁶⁾	246 hip fracture cases; F & M, mean 80 yr (F) and 74 yr (M). Excluded if institutionalized, poor cognition, or violent hip fracture	Case control; 246 age‐ & sex‐matched controls	1 yr	—	—	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)	About half of all hip fracture cases (n = 225) were excluded, leaving only 246
Any frx between age 20‐34⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 553 had frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx at age 35‐57 (n = 1782)	NA	—	—	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)	Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal women Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx
Olecranon⁽³⁰⁾	52 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 5) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	180 pt‐yr	—	—	2.6 (0.9, 6.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx Low power (0.44) for prior olecranon frx
Knee	129 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 14 new hip frxs	469 pt‐yr	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.0)	See above
Ankle	200 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 8 new hip frxs	779 pt‐yr	—	—	1.3 (0.6, 2.7)	See above. Low power (0.12) for prior ankle frx
Proximal humerus⁽²³⁾	406 F 20‐99 yr with proximal humerus frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 32) to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	3.7 yr	—	—	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx
Proximal humerus	F 60‐79 yr	Subset of study above; 16 new hip frx	3.7 yr	—	—	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)	See above
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴¹⁾	9516 F age 65 +	Prospective (cohort); 192 new hip frxs	4.1 yr	—	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)	Adjusted for age, bone density, and 14 other covariates
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior hip frx, and smoking
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴³⁾	2879 M age 45 or older	Prospective (cohort); 71 new hip frx	39,914 p‐yr	—	—	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)	Men only. Adjustment for covariates including BMD had no effect
Frx since age 45⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort); 183 new clinical frx, 145 new morphometric vertebral frx cases	2.9 yr	1.4 (CI not given)	1.3 (CI not given) [clinical frx]	—	All women had low BMD and at least one morphometric vertebral frx. Not adjusted for age
Wrist or hip⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new nonspine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr.	Nested case‐control (1:4)	1.7 yr	—	3.1 (1.1, 8.6)		Adjusted for age & sex
Nonspine frx only (no spine frx⁽³⁹⁾	893 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior spine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Any frx (since age 50?)⁽¹¹⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	5.9 yr
		Outcome = new frx of ankle (191 women)		—	Not significant	—	New ankle frx only
		Outcome = new frx of foot (204 women)		—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)	—	New foot frx only
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴⁴⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	2.2 yr
		Outcome = new frx of distal forearm (171 women)		—	1.7 (1.2, 2.3) [wrist]	—	New distal forearm frx only
							Not adjusted for age
							Not significant after adjustment for covariates (adjusted RR = 1.3)
		Outcome = new frx of proximal humerus (79 women)		—	1.4 (0.9, 2.2) [humerus]	—	New proximal humerus frx only
Any frx in prior 5 yrs⁽¹⁴⁾	820 M age 60 or more; 752 had baseline BMD measurements.	Prospective (cohort); 166 new atraumatic frxs	5 yr	—	1.2 (1.1, 1.3)	—	Men only. R = 1.4 (1.2, 1.5) after adjusting for BMD
Distal forearm, proximal humerus, pelvis, or vertebra⁽⁴⁸⁾	232 M ages 35+ with hip frx between 1965‐1989, excluding pathologic or violent frx; mean age 79 yr. Population‐based sample; 84 M had prior forearm, spine, pelvis, or humerus frx	Case control; 232 M controls without hip frx.	37 yr	—	—	3.7 (2.2, 6.2)	Men only
Wrist, hip, humerus, or spine⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.3 (2.0, 2.7)	—	2.2 (1.6, 2.6)
Hip Hip⁽⁵⁰⁾	914 F (mean 75 yr) & 231 M (mean 71 yr) with prior hip fracture; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ and sex‐ specific incidence of new hip frx (n = 106) among cases to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	10,441 pt‐yr	—	—	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)	For all hip fractures
	F & M	Subanalysis of study above	99 new frx	—	—	1.8*	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	M only		11 new frx			3.2*
	F only		88 new frx			1.7*
	Frx before age 60 (F & M)	Subanalysis of study above, analyzed by age group	11 new frx	—	—	3.9^‡	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	Frx at ages 60‐69 (F & M)		24 new frx			3.0^‡
	Frx at age 70+ (F & M)		64 new frx			1.4^†
Hip⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior non‐hip frx, and smoking
Trochanteric hip frx⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 40 F with prior trochanteric hip frx	Prospective (cohort) Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 new frx in 258 women).	11 yr	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)	—
Hip⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 39 had prior hip frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.6 (1.0, 5.4)		Men only
Hip frx in 1981⁽¹⁸⁾	432 F ages 45 or older with a hip frx in 1981; mean age = 80 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 31 hip, 24 other frx) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	1.9 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age. Also, mortality was 67% during 6 yrs after the initial hip frx
Hip⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.5 (1.9, 3.9)	—	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)

Prior fracture location	Study population	Study design	Follow‐up	Vertebral fracture	All fractures	Hip fracture	Comments
Wrist Distal radius⁽²³⁾	1162 F 20‐99 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 49) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4.0 yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.2)	Some previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx.
	F 60‐79 yr with prior wrist frx; population‐based sample	Age 60‐79 yr subset; 31 new hip frx		—	—	1.9 (1.3, 2.6)	See above.
Wrist⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 144 had wrist frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = wrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 17)	NA	—	3.3 (2.0, 5.3) [wrist only]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
	Same as above	See above; outcome = nonwrist frx at age 35‐57 (n = 30)	NA	—	2.4 (1.7, 3.4) [nonwrist]		Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal. Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx.
Colles⁽²⁰⁾	350 F & 44 M with Colles' frx between 1945‐1959; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ & sex‐specific incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 54) to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	6145 pt‐yr	—	—	1.4 (1.1, 1.8)	Men & women combined
	350 F only	See above; 47 hip frx		—	—	1.3 (0.9, 1.7)	Women only
	344 F & 36 M excluding violent Colles' frx	See above; 53 hip frx		—	—	1.5 (1.1, 1.9)	Men & women
Distal forearm⁽²¹⁾	1126 F & 212 M ages 40+, with distal forearm frx between 1968‐1972; population‐based sample	Compared to 1126 F & 212 M age‐ & sex‐matched controls; population‐based sample	40,832 pt‐yr (follow‐up through 1991); 365 new hip frxs	—	—	F:1.5 (1.2, 1.9) M: 2.3 (1.2, 4.5)
Distal forearm⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 283 with distal forearm frx	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 258 F).	11 yr	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.1)	—
Distal radius⁽¹⁸⁾	490 F ages 45 or older with a distal radius frx in 1981; mean age = 66 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 75 F) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	2.1 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age
Distal radius⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 82 had prior distal radius frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.8 (0.9, 3.6)	—	Men only
Forearm⁽²⁵⁾	243 men, 1045 women ages 35 with prior distal forearm frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	548 patients had new frx during 9664 pt‐yr follow‐up; 104 forearm, 249 vertebral, 78 hip	—	2.8 (women) (2.2, 3.6) 2.6 (men) (0.7, 6.5)	—	New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx before age 70
					2.1 (women) (1.4, 2.9)		New wrist frx only; prior wrist frx after age 70
					24.1 (men) (6.6, 61.7)
				5.2 (4.5, 5.9)	2.0 (1.8, 2.2)	1.4 (1.1, 1.9)	Women
				10.7 (6.7, 16.3)	2.5 (1.9, 3.1)	2.7 (1.0, 5.8)	Men
Wrist⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	—	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)
Spine Vertebral (clinical)⁽³¹⁾	186 M & 495 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age < 70 yr between 1950‐1989	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐& sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	8,342 pt‐yr; 57 F & 1 M new hip frxs	—	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)	RR = 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 43 F & 5 M new distal forearm frxs	—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8) [distal forearm]	—	RR = 1.5 (1.0, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 58 F & 13 M new proximal humerus frx	—	4.5 (3.5, 5.7) [proximal humerus]	—
	Same as above	Same as above	Same, but 249 F & 44 M new limb frx	—	1.5 (1.3, 1.8) [any limb]	—	RR = 1.6 (1.3, 2.0) excluding previous violent vertebral frx
Lumbar spine (clinical)⁽³⁰⁾	70 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 10) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	241 pt‐yr	—	—	3.8 (1.8, 7.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (clinical)⁽³²⁾	336 F with first vertebral frx diagnosis at age 35‐69 yr between 1950‐1979, and no prior hip frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 52) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	4788 pt‐yr	—	—	1.8 (1.3, 2.4)	No difference in association for vertebral fractures before vs. after age 60 Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁴⁾	3013 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort)	2.9 yr; 454 new nonpine frx, including 56 new hip	—	1.8 (1.5, 2.2) [nonspine]	2.6 (1.5, 4.5)	Age‐adjusted
	Same	Same	Same	—	1.7 (1.4, 2.1) [nonspine]	2.2 (1.3, 3.8)	Adjusted for age & BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 87 with prior vertebral frx.	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 frx in 258 women)	11 yr	—	2.2 (1.4, 3.4)	—
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³³⁾	7238 F, age 65+; 20% had morphometric (3 SD) vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort). N = 389 women with new vertebral frx, defined as >20% decrease in vertebral height; n = 2433 women with new nonvertebral frx	3.7 yr for vertebral frx, 8.3 yr for nonvertebral frx	4.8 (3.9, 6.0)	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)	2.2 (1.8, 2.7)	Age‐adjusted
				4.1 (3.3, 5.1)	1.6 (1.5, 1.8)	1.9 (1.5, 2.3)	Adjusted for age & BMD
				3.8 (3.1, 4.7)	1.5 (1.4, 1.6)	1.7 (1.4, 2.1)	Adjusted for age, BMD, & other variables
Two or more morphometric frx⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort) New vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	2.9 yr	3.2	1.5	—	Compared to women with a single morphometric vertebral frx Not adjusted for age
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁹⁾	1098 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	4.2 (2.2, 8.0)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric) plus nonspine⁽³⁹⁾	Same	Same	Same	3.4(1.0, 11.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior nonspine fractures (only), prior spine fractures (only), and spine BMD
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁶⁾	893 F, age 43‐80; 83 had morphometric (3 SD) crush or wedge vertebral frx at baseline	Prospective (cohort) Incident frx defined as 15+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 61) Adjusted for age	4.7 yr
Single crush frx				5.3 (1.9, 15.2)	—	—
Single wedge frx				4.1 (2.1, 8.1)	—	—
2 or more crush or wedge frx				11.8 (5.1, 26.8)	—	—
Vertebral (radiographic)⁽³⁷⁾	380 F in a clinical trial; mean age = 65 yr Semiquantitative frx diagnosis; 287 had frx at baseline	Prospective; 47 new vertebral frx	2.9 yr		—	—
1‐2 frx				7.4 (1.0, 55.9)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 3‐4 frx, and 5 + frx at baseline
3‐4 frx				25.8 (3.4, 194.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 5+ frx at baseline
5+ frx				34.6 (4.6, 257.6)	—	—	Adjusted for age, treatment, 1‐2 frx, and 3‐4 frx at baseline
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new non‐spine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr All had spine radiographs at baseline	Nested case‐control (1:4). Mild spinal deformity was present in 119 people, and severe deformity in 24.	1.7 yr				Adjusted for age & sex
Mild		Mild spinal deformity = 1 to 3 vertebra with height ratios 2 to 3 SD below the mean (grade I), or a single vertebra with height ratio more than 3 SD below the mean (grade II)		—	1.6 (0.7, 3.5) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 1.5 (0.6, 3.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Severe		Severe spinal deformity = more than 3 grade I or more than one grade II deformities		—	4.4 (1.5, 13.3) [non‐spine]	—	RR = 4.1 (1.3, 12.4) after additional adjustment for BMD
Vertebral (clinical)⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 31 had prior vertebral frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr		3.7 (1.6, 8.9)		Men only
Spine (clinical)⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	3.9 (2.9, 5.2)	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.5)
Vertebral (clinical⁽²⁹⁾	151 men, 589 women ages ≥ 35 yr with prior clinical vertebral frx	Compared incidence of new frx among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	432 patients (all ages) had 896 new frx during 4349 pt‐yr follow‐up; 34 distal forearm, 398 vertebral, 96 hip	33 (24, 43)	4.2 (3.2, 5.3)	4.7 (2.3, 8.7)	Men
				11.1 (9.7, 13)	2.7 (2.4, 3.0)	2.1 (1.6, 2.7)	Women
Vertebral (morphometric)⁽⁵³⁾	6082 F age 55‐81 yr in a clinical trial with low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6)	Prospective (cohort) 344 women had new vertebral frx defined as >20% (and >4 mm) decrease in vertebral height	3.8 yr	Placebo group 3.0 (2.2, 4.1) Alendronate 2.9 (1.9, 4.3)			Women with prior vertebral frx had 1.4 yr shorter follow‐up—therefore, analysis probably underestimates association, and was not pooled with other studies. Adjusted for age, weight, BMD.
Other Single prior frx⁽²⁶⁾	1857 F, age 45‐49 at baseline; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort); postal survey 2 yr after baseline examination; 44 new frx.	2 yr	—	2.4 (1.6, 3.7)	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx. RR = 2.1 (1.0, 4.3) adjusted for age & BMD
2 + prior frxs				—	5.9 (2.6, 3.4)	—	RR = 4.0 (1.7, 9.5) adjusted for age & BMD
Any frx in prior 10 yr⁽²⁷⁾	3014 F age 47‐56 (mean = 53 yr); population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort). Outcome = any nonviolent frx (n = 157), including wrist (n = 42)	2.4 yr	—	2.8 (2.0, 4.1) [all frxs]	—	Previous and incident frx are not all representative of osteoporotic frx
					2.3 (1.1, 4.6) [wrist only]
Tibia or ankle⁽⁴⁵⁾	317 M & 174 F with tibial shaft frx between 1949‐ 1963 (mean age at frx = 29), or ankle frx between 1961‐1965 (mean age at frx = 38 yr); 51% of tibia and 15% of ankle frx were due to violent force Population‐based sample.	Compared to double sex‐and age‐matched controls; population‐based sample. Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle prior to 1992 (n = 215)	Not given	—	1.7 (1.3, 2.3)	—	Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx. Sample represents only about one‐third of all patients with prior fractures—remainder were lost to follow‐up
Any frx before age 50⁽⁴⁷⁾	7459 F born between 1900‐1940; only 4223 analyzed, of which 268 had frx prior to age 50	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx after age 50 (n = 1132)	NA	—	1.4 (1.2, 1.6)	—	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx. Analyses may be suspect: only 4223 women were included in analyses, results of a poorly‐defined “control group” are reported separately, and it is not clear if the analyses accounted adequately for possible differences in age and time at risk
Any frx after age 30	Same, but number with prior frx not available	Same, but outcome = “hip frx later in life”		—	—	3.6 (1.1, 12.2)	See above
Any previous fracture⁽⁴⁶⁾	246 hip fracture cases; F & M, mean 80 yr (F) and 74 yr (M). Excluded if institutionalized, poor cognition, or violent hip fracture	Case control; 246 age‐ & sex‐matched controls	1 yr	—	—	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)	About half of all hip fracture cases (n = 225) were excluded, leaving only 246
Any frx between age 20‐34⁽¹⁹⁾	12,162 F 47‐57 yr; 553 had frx at age 20‐34	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx at age 35‐57 (n = 1782)	NA	—	—	1.9 (1.6, 2.3)	Includes pre‐ and early postmenopausal women Previous frx are not representative of osteoporotic frx
Olecranon⁽³⁰⁾	52 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Compared incidence of new hip frx (n = 5) among cases to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	180 pt‐yr	—	—	2.6 (0.9, 6.1)	Previous frx may not all be representative of osteoporotic frx Low power (0.44) for prior olecranon frx
Knee	129 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 14 new hip frxs	469 pt‐yr	—	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.0)	See above
Ankle	200 F age 59+ with frx between 1976‐1984	Same as above, but 8 new hip frxs	779 pt‐yr	—	—	1.3 (0.6, 2.7)	See above. Low power (0.12) for prior ankle frx
Proximal humerus⁽²³⁾	406 F 20‐99 yr with proximal humerus frx	Compared incidence of new hip frx among cases (n = 32) to age‐ & sex‐specific expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	3.7 yr	—	—	2.7 (1.8, 3.6)	Previous frx may not be representative of osteoporotic frx
Proximal humerus	F 60‐79 yr	Subset of study above; 16 new hip frx	3.7 yr	—	—	2.5 (1.3, 3.6)	See above
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴¹⁾	9516 F age 65 +	Prospective (cohort); 192 new hip frxs	4.1 yr	—	—	1.5 (1.1, 2.0)	Adjusted for age, bone density, and 14 other covariates
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	1.4 (1.0, 2.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior hip frx, and smoking
Non‐hip frx⁽⁴³⁾	2879 M age 45 or older	Prospective (cohort); 71 new hip frx	39,914 p‐yr	—	—	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)	Men only. Adjustment for covariates including BMD had no effect
Frx since age 45⁽³⁵⁾	1005 F age 55‐81 yr in placebo arm of a clinical trial with at least one morphometric vertebral frx and low femoral neck BMD (T‐score < −1.6).	Prospective (cohort); 183 new clinical frx, 145 new morphometric vertebral frx cases	2.9 yr	1.4 (CI not given)	1.3 (CI not given) [clinical frx]	—	All women had low BMD and at least one morphometric vertebral frx. Not adjusted for age
Wrist or hip⁽³⁸⁾	35 F & 4 M cases with new nonspine frx and 210 controls; mean age = 75 yr.	Nested case‐control (1:4)	1.7 yr	—	3.1 (1.1, 8.6)		Adjusted for age & sex
Nonspine frx only (no spine frx⁽³⁹⁾	893 F age 43‐80; 83 had prevalent vertebral frx and 103 had prior nonspine frx.	Prospective (cohort); 63 new vertebral frx cases	4.7 yr	2.2 (0.8, 5.7)	—	—	Adjusted for age, prior spine fractures (only), prior spine plus nonspine fractures, and spine BMD
Any frx (since age 50?)⁽¹¹⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	5.9 yr
		Outcome = new frx of ankle (191 women)		—	Not significant	—	New ankle frx only
		Outcome = new frx of foot (204 women)		—	1.4 (1.0, 1.8)	—	New foot frx only
Any frx since age 50⁽⁴⁴⁾	9704 F age 65 or older; 37% had prior frxs; population‐based sample	Prospective (cohort)	2.2 yr
		Outcome = new frx of distal forearm (171 women)		—	1.7 (1.2, 2.3) [wrist]	—	New distal forearm frx only
							Not adjusted for age
							Not significant after adjustment for covariates (adjusted RR = 1.3)
		Outcome = new frx of proximal humerus (79 women)		—	1.4 (0.9, 2.2) [humerus]	—	New proximal humerus frx only
Any frx in prior 5 yrs⁽¹⁴⁾	820 M age 60 or more; 752 had baseline BMD measurements.	Prospective (cohort); 166 new atraumatic frxs	5 yr	—	1.2 (1.1, 1.3)	—	Men only. R = 1.4 (1.2, 1.5) after adjusting for BMD
Distal forearm, proximal humerus, pelvis, or vertebra⁽⁴⁸⁾	232 M ages 35+ with hip frx between 1965‐1989, excluding pathologic or violent frx; mean age 79 yr. Population‐based sample; 84 M had prior forearm, spine, pelvis, or humerus frx	Case control; 232 M controls without hip frx.	37 yr	—	—	3.7 (2.2, 6.2)	Men only
Wrist, hip, humerus, or spine⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.3 (2.0, 2.7)	—	2.2 (1.6, 2.6)
Hip Hip⁽⁵⁰⁾	914 F (mean 75 yr) & 231 M (mean 71 yr) with prior hip fracture; population‐based sample	Compared age‐ and sex‐ specific incidence of new hip frx (n = 106) among cases to expected incidence in the same community using population‐based medical records data	10,441 pt‐yr	—	—	1.6 (1.3, 1.9)	For all hip fractures
	F & M	Subanalysis of study above	99 new frx	—	—	1.8*	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	M only		11 new frx			3.2*
	F only		88 new frx			1.7*
	Frx before age 60 (F & M)	Subanalysis of study above, analyzed by age group	11 new frx	—	—	3.9^‡	Excludes first hip fractures from severe trauma
	Frx at ages 60‐69 (F & M)		24 new frx			3.0^‡
	Frx at age 70+ (F & M)		64 new frx			1.4^†
Hip⁽⁴²⁾	5822 F age 65+ without vertebral fractures at baseline	Prospective (cohort). New frx defined as 20+% decrease in vertebral height (n = 181)	3.7 yr	2.5 (1.1, 6.0)	—	—	Adjusted for daily milk consumption during pregnancy, weight gain since age 25, maternal history of wrist fractures, age, prior non‐hip frx, and smoking
Trochanteric hip frx⁽²²⁾	1076 F; 259 age < 50, 530 age 50‐69, 287 age > 70 yr; 40 F with prior trochanteric hip frx	Prospective (cohort) Outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 555 new frx in 258 women).	11 yr	—	2.4 (1.3, 4.6)	—
Hip⁽²⁴⁾	654 M with prior BMD measurements; 39 had prior hip frxs	Population‐based review of all subsequent radiographs; outcome = fragility frx at proximal humerus, distal forearm, vertebra, pelvic rami, hip, or tibial condoyle from 1975 to 1985 (n = 165 new frx in 111 men)	11 yr	—	1.6 (1.0, 5.4)		Men only
Hip frx in 1981⁽¹⁸⁾	432 F ages 45 or older with a hip frx in 1981; mean age = 80 yr	Prospective. Frxs at any site after 1981 (n = 31 hip, 24 other frx) were identified by mail survey. Frx rate compared to population‐based data for F of same age	6 yr	—	1.9 (CI not given)	—	May not be adjusted adequately for age. Also, mortality was 67% during 6 yrs after the initial hip frx
Hip⁽¹⁷⁾	29,802 women ages 50‐80	Cross‐sectional postal survey; outcome = frx within prior 10 years. N = 7164 wrist frx, 1196 hip frx, 1703 spine frx (including both new and prior frx)	NA	2.5 (1.9, 3.9)	—	2.3 (1.5, 3.7)

Studies involved postmenopausal women, except as otherwise noted. RR values shown in bold were used to compile the results in Table 1 and Appendix 1.

F, female; M, male; frx, fracture; yr, year(s); NA, no CI available.

*P < 0.05; ^†P < 0.01; ^‡P < 0.001.

Open in new tab

Author notes

Presented in part at the Second Joint Meeting of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research and the International Bone and Mineral Society, San Francisco, California, U.S.A., December 1–6, 1998.

This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

Download all slides

Month:	Total Views:
February 2024	53
March 2024	55
April 2024	18

Article Contents

Patients with Prior Fractures Have an Increased Risk of Future Fractures: A Summary of the Literature and Statistical Synthesis*

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Statistical synthesis

RESULTS

Prior wrist fracture

Prior vertebral fracture

Prior fractures of any type

Prior hip fractures

Pooled estimates for subsequent fracture types and for all combinations of prior and subsequent fractures

DISCUSSION

Potential limitations of this study

Conclusion

REFERENCES

Appendix

Published Relative Risk Estimates and Confidence Intervals Used to Calculate the Pooled Estimates Shown in Table 1

Appendix

Descriptions and Relative Risk Estimates from Published Studies, by Locations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

Author notes

Citations

Views

Altmetric

Email alerts

Email alerts

Related articles in

Citing articles via

Latest

Most Read

Most Cited

Article Contents

Patients with Prior Fractures Have an Increased Risk of Future Fractures: A Summary of the Literature and Statistical Synthesis*

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Statistical synthesis

RESULTS

Prior wrist fracture

Prior vertebral fracture

Prior fractures of any type

Prior hip fractures

Pooled estimates for subsequent fracture types and for all combinations of prior and subsequent fractures

DISCUSSION

Potential limitations of this study

Conclusion

REFERENCES

Appendix

Published Relative Risk Estimates and Confidence Intervals Used to Calculate the Pooled Estimates Shown in Table 1

Appendix

Descriptions and Relative Risk Estimates from Published Studies, by Locations of Prior and Subsequent Fractures

Author notes

Citations

Views

Altmetric

Email alerts

Email alerts

Related articles in

Citing articles via

Latest

Most Read

Most Cited

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only