If duration of skin thickening is (months) | Model A | Model B | |
AUC: 0.666 Sensitivity: 73.4% Specificity: 57.2% PPV: 33.8% NPV: 87.9% Accuracy: 60.9% | AUC: 0.711 Sensitivity: 60.4% Specificity: 74.2% PPV: 41.0% NPV: 86.3% Accuracy: 71.0% | ||
All patients | Pol3+ patients | All others | |
mRSS should be (units) or less | mRSS should be (units) or less | mRSS should be (units) or less | |
1 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
2 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
3 | 43 | 51 | 51 |
4 | 37 | 51 | 37 |
5 | 33 | 51 | 28 |
6 | 29 | 48 | 23 |
7 | 27 | 40 | 20 |
8 | 25 | 35 | 18 |
9 | 23 | 31 | 16 |
10 | 22 | 28 | 15 |
11 | 21 | 26 | 14 |
12 | 20 | 24 | 13 |
13 | 19 | 22 | 13 |
14 | 18 | 21 | 12 |
15 | 18 | 20 | 12 |
16 | 17 | 19 | 11 |
17 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
18 | 16 | 17 | 11 |
19 | 16 | 17 | 10 |
20 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
21 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
22 | 15 | 15 | 10 |
23 | 15 | 15 | 10 |
24 | 14 | 14 | 9 |
25 | 14 | 14 | 9 |
26 | 14 | 14 | 9 |
27 | 14 | 13 | 9 |
28 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
29 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
30 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
31 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
32 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
33 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
34 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
35 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
36 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
For each duration, the required mRSS level is rounded above to the nearest integer to reflect real mRSS values.
AUC, area under curve; mRSS, modified Rodnan skin score; PPV, positive predictive value.