Table 3

Potential for confounding by indication; predicted percentage with adverse events within 5 years, and treatment outcome after 1 year, based on observed baseline characteristics

CohortAll-cause mortalityMalignancyMACESerious infectionDrug survival <1 yearGood EULAR response at 1 year
First bDMARDCrudeSTDCrudeSTDCrudeSTDCrudeSTDCrudeSTDCrudeSTD
 TNFi4.85.65.414.430.331.0
 Rituximab13.37.08.86.110.06.124.217.729.428.925.323.2
 Abatacept11.98.17.05.89.16.921.318.131.231.127.929.2
 Tocilizumab8.87.16.15.47.16.117.915.930.730.930.331.6
Switch from TNFi
 TNFi5.35.34.84.76.16.116.916.736.236.117.617.6
 Rituximab8.16.35.74.97.66.321.219.035.134.818.219.1
 Abatacept7.36.85.34.87.06.919.518.237.937.818.018.3
 Tocilizumab6.86.45.15.06.86.418.117.637.137.718.318.2
  • Predicted observed percentage (crude) and age-sex standardised to TNFi as first bDMARD (STD).

  • bDMARD, biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; MACE, major acute cardiovascular event; TNFi,  tumour necrosis factor inhibitor.