Test characteristics of the 2010 EULAR/ACR criteria alone and after addition of information on MRI detected BME or MRI detected erosions for two outcomes (fulfilling the 1987classifcaiton criteria after 1 year or the prescription of DMARDs during the first year) in patients with undifferentiated arthritis according to the 1987 classification criteria for RA
| Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | LR+ | LR− | Accuracy (%) | AUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A score of at least 1 was used as cut-off | ||||||||
| DMARD start | ||||||||
| 2010 RA | 40 (33 to 46) | 88 (84 to 93) | 75 (69 to 80) | 62 (56 to 69) | 3.32 (1.88 to 5.85) | 0.69 (0.58 to 0.82) | 65 (59 to 72) | 0.64 (0.56 to 0.72) |
| +BME | 83 (78 to 88) | 45 (38 to 52) | 57 (50 to 64) | 75 (69 to 81) | 1.51 (1.25 to 1.83) | 0.37 (0.23 to 0.61) | 63 (56 to 70) | 0.64 (0.57 to 0.72) |
| +ERO | 88 (83 to 92) | 30 (24 to 37) | 53 (46 to 59) | 73 (67 to 79) | 1.25 (1.09 to 1.45) | 0.41 (0.23 to 0.75) | 57 (50 to 64) | 0.59 (0.51 to 0.67) |
| 1987 criteria positivity | ||||||||
| 2010 RA | 53 (46 to 60) | 84 (78 to 89) | 49 (42 to 56) | 86 (81 to 91) | 3.23 (2.08 to 5.03) | 0.56 (0.41 to 0.77) | 77 (71 to 82) | 0.68 (0.59 to 0.78) |
| +BME | 83 (78 to 88) | 36 (30 to 43) | 28 (22 to 34) | 88 (83 to 92) | 1.3 (1.09 to 1.55) | 0.47 (0.24 to 0.92) | 47 (40 to 54) | 0.60 (0.51 to 0.68) |
| +ERO | 87 (83 to 92) | 25 (19 to 31) | 26 (20 to 32) | 87 (82 to 91) | 1.16 (1.01 to 1.33) | 0.52 (0.23 to 1.15) | 39 (32 to 46) | 0.56 (0.47 to 0.65) |
| A score of at least 2 was used as cut-off | ||||||||
| DMARD start | ||||||||
| 2010 RA | 40 (33 to 46) | 88 (84 to 93) | 75 (69 to 80) | 62 (56 to 69) | 3.32 (1.88 to 5.85) | 0.69 (0.58 to 0.82) | 65 (59 to 72) | 0.64 (0.56 to 0.72) |
| +BME | 73 (67 to 79) | 58 (51 to 65) | 60 (54 to 67) | 71 (65 to 77) | 1.73 (1.34 to 2.22) | 0.47 (0.33 to 0.68) | 65 (58 to 71) | 0.65 (0.58 to 0.73) |
| +ERO | 73 (67 to 79) | 49 (42 to 55) | 56 (49 to 62) | 67 (61 to 74) | 1.42 (1.14 to 1.77) | 0.56 (0.38 to 0.82) | 60 (53 to 67) | 0.61 (0.53 to 0.68) |
| 1987 criteria positivity | ||||||||
| 2010 RA | 53 (46 to 60) | 84 (78 to 89) | 49 (42 to 56) | 86 (81 to 91) | 3.23 (2.08 to 5.03) | 0.56 (0.41 to 0.77) | 77 (71 to 82) | 0.68 (0.59 to 0.78) |
| +BME | 74 (68 to 80) | 49 (42 to 56) | 30 (24 to 36) | 87 (82 to 91) | 1.45 (1.16 to 1.82) | 0.52 (0.31 to 0.88) | 55 (48 to 61) | 0.62 (0.53 to 0.7) |
| +ERO | 77 (71 to 82) | 43 (36 to 50) | 29 (22 to 35) | 86 (81 to 91) | 1.34 (1.09 to 1.66) | 0.54 (0.31 to 0.94) | 51 (44 to 58) | 0.60 (0.51 to 0.69) |
Test characteristics are shown with a 95% CI.
AUC, area under receiver operating characteristics curve; BME, bone marrow oedema; DMARD, disease-modifying antirheumatic drug; ERO, MRI detected erosion; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; RA, rheumatoid arthritis.