Outcome | N erosive joints | Leiden-EAC n=308* | ESPOIR n=149† | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N patients (%)‡ | Sens | Spec | PPV | NPV | LR+ | LR- | AUC | N patients(%)‡ | Sens | Spec | PPV | NPV | LR+ | LR- | AUC | ||
MTX | None | 215 | 88 | ||||||||||||||
≥1 joint | 93 (30) | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.19 | 0.95 | 2.40 | 0.49 | 0.69 | 61 (41) | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 1.32 | 0.82 | 0.56 | |
≥2 joints | 50 (16) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.24 | 0.94 | 3.16 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 37 (25) | 0.27 | 0.76 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 0.96 | 0.51 | |
≥3 joints | 36 (11) | 0.29 | 0.90 | 0.23 | 0.93 | 2.96 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 26 (17) | 0.21 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 0.64 | 1.42 | 0.92 | 0.53 | |
≥4 joints | 21 (7) | 0.18 | 0.94 | 0.24 | 0.92 | 3.13 | 0.87 | 0.56 | 15 (10) | 0.12 | 0.91 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 1.45 | 0.96 | 0.52 | |
≥5 joints | 14 (5) | 0.14 | 0.97 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 4.44 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 12 (8) | 0.08 | 0.92 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 1.19 | 0.98 | 0.51 | |
DMARD | None | 215 | 88 | ||||||||||||||
≥1 joint | 93 (30) | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 2.99 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 61 (41) | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1.25 | 0.86 | 0.54 | |
≥2 joints | 50 (16) | 0.35 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 4.01 | 0.71 | 0.63 | 37 (25) | 0.28 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 1.36 | 0.91 | 0.54 | |
≥3 joints | 36 (11) | 0.25 | 0.94 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 3.87 | 0.80 | 0.59 | 26 (17) | 0.22 | 0.90 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 2.18 | 0.86 | 0.56 | |
≥4 joints | 21 (7) | 0.17 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 6.15 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 15 (10) | 0.14 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.42 | 4.26 | 0.88 | 0.55 | |
≥5 joints | 14 (5) | 0.12 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 0.74 | 13.53 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 12 (8) | 0.12 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.42 | 7.21 | 0.89 | 0.55 | |
PERSISTENCY | None | 214 | 60 | ||||||||||||||
≥1 joint | 85 (28) | 0.30 | 0.76 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 1.23 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 41 (41) | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1.34 | 0.82 | 0.56 | |
≥2 joints | 45 (15) | 0.20 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 25 (25) | 0.30 | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 1.64 | 0.86 | 0.56 | |
≥3 joints | 31 (10) | 0.15 | 0.95 | 0.77 | 0.51 | 3.14 | 0.89 | 0.55 | 18 (18) | 0.24 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 0.48 | 2.70 | 0.83 | 0.58 | |
≥4 joints | 19 (6) | 0.09 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 4.28 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 12 (12) | 0.17 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 3.86 | 0.86 | 0.56 | |
≥5 joints | 13 (4) | 0.07 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | / | 0.93 | 0.54 | 9 (8.9) | 0.16 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | / | 0.84 | 0.58 |
*299 patients had data on disease persistency in Leiden-EAC.
†101 patients had data on disease persistency in ESPOIR.
‡Number and percentage of patients positive for erosiveness in this analysis.
ACR, American College of Rheumatology; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; DMARD, disease modifying antirheumatic drug; ESPOIR, Étude et Suivi des POlyarthrites Indifférenciées Récentes; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; Leiden-EAC, Dutch Leiden-Early Arthritis Clinic; MTX, methotrexate; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.