Baseline predictive factors of radiographic outcome at 6 and 12 months (univariate analysis)
| Progression of mTSS at 6 months | Progression of mTSS at 12 months | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline variables | OR (95% CI) | p Value | OR (95% CI) | p Value |
| mTSS (median 3) | 3.44 (2.33 to 5.09) | <0.001 | 2.93 (2.06 to 4.17) | <0.001 |
| Anti-CCP positivity | 3.84 (2.63 to 5.61) | <0.001 | 3.95 (2.77 to 5.63) | <0.001 |
| IgM-RF positivity | 2.53 (1.74 to 3.67) | <0.001 | 2.61 (1.84 to 3.69) | <0.001 |
| ESR (>28 mm) | 2.30 (1.60 to 3.33) | <0.001 | 2.13 (1.51 to 3.00) | <0.001 |
| CRP (median 10 mg/l) | 1.96 (1.36 to 2.83) | <0.001 | 1.86 (1.33 to 2.62) | <0.001 |
| HLA-DRB1*01 or *04 ‘single copy’ | 2.54 (1.65 to 3.92) | <0.001 | 2.30 (1.55 to 3.41) | <0.001 |
| HLA-DRB1*01 or *04 ‘double copy’ | 3.88 (2.07 to 7.26) | <0.001 | 3.28 (1.80 to 5.98) | <0.001 |
| DAS28 (median 5.07) | 1.44 (0.99 to 2.08) | 0.050 | 1.14 (0.81 to 1.59) | 0.460 |
| Swollen joint count (median 6) | 1.23 (0.86 to 1.77) | 0.256 | 0.85 (0.60 to 1.19) | 0.333 |
| Tender joint count (median 6) | 0.77 (0.54 to 1.11) | 0.161 | 0.61 (0.44 to 0.86) | 0.005 |
| Age (median 50.2 years) | 1.80 (1.24 to 2.56) | 0.002 | 1.57 (1.12 to 2.21) | 0.009 |
| Sex (female) | 1.63 (1.09 to 2.43) | 0.016 | 1.81 (1.23 to 2.65) | 0.002 |
| HAQ score (median 0.88) | 1.02 (0.71 to 1.46) | 0.910 | 0.99 (0.71 to 1.38) | 0.944 |
| Season winter vs summer | 2.17 (1.26 to 3.73) | 0.005 | 2.01 (1.22 to 3.32) | 0.006 |
| Season spring vs summer | 2.00 (1.16 to 3.47) | 0.013 | 1.68 (1.01 to 2.80) | 0.046 |
| Season winter vs autumn | 1.90 (1.15 to 3.14) | 0.012 | 1.71 (1.08 to 2.71) | 0.022 |
| Season spring vs autumn | 1.76 (1.06 to 2.93) | 0.029 | 1.43 (0.89 to 2.29) | 0.136 |
| Season (winter and spring) vs (summer and autumn) | 1.94 (1.34 to 2.81) | <0.001 | 1.68 (1.20 to 2.37) | 0.003 |
| Smoking | 1.39 (0.96 to 1.99) | 0.079 | 1.32 (0.94 to 1.86) | 0.105 |
| Alcohol consumption | 0.73 (0.47 to 1.15) | 0.174 | 0.59 (0.39 to 0.89) | 0.012 |
| ACR criteria for RA ≥4 | 1.88 (1.20 to 2.95) | 0.005 | 1.36 (0.917 to 2.01) | 0.126 |
ACR, American College of Rheumatology; anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; CRP, C-reactive protein; DAS28, disease activity score in 28 joints; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, health assessment questionnaire; HLA, human leucocyte antigen; mTSS, modified total Sharp score; RA, rheumatoid arthritis; RF, rheumatoid factor.