Table 3 Predicting adverse events at 1 and 2 years

Predictor	1 year			2 years
Predictor	Adverse event	Still on	p Value	Adverse event	Still on	p Value
Number of patients	34 (11)	231 (75)		46 (15)	188 (61)
Female gender n (%)	27 (79)	147 (64)	0.07	35 (76)	117 (62)	0.08
Age diagnosis (years)	58.4 (44.5–64.4)	59.3 (48.3–69)	0.25	59 (45.1–65.6)	58.7 (46.9–69.5)	0.56
Age MTX onset (years)	58.8 (45.6–64.7)	60 (50.8–69.8)	0.29	59 (45.8–68.0)	59.4 (49.1–70.5)	0.6
Symptom duration prior to MTX (months)	8.76 (4–18.95)	6.27 (3.75–12.68)	0.21	6.97 (4.01–16.79)	6.09 (3.56–14.59)	0.33
RF positive (yes/no)	11 (32)	94 (41)	0.31	15 (44)	87 (46)	0.2
ARA criteria (yes/no)	16 (47)	121 (52)	0.56	20 (44)	101 (54)	0.2
SJC	4 (2–10)	4 (1–11)	0.83	4 (2–9)	5 (1–11)	0.43
TJC	9 (2–15)	5 (1–15)	0.06	8 (3–16)	5 (1–13)	0.08
28 SJC	3 (2–8)	4 (1–9)	0.99	3 (1–7)	4 (1–9)	0.4
28 TJC	6 (3–9)	3 (0–10)	0.05	6 (2–11)	4 (0–10)	0.09
Baseline CRP*	8 (2–17)	13 (5–26)	0.04	7 (2–17)	13 (5–26)	0.01
Baseline DAS28*	3.8 (3.3–5.1)	3.9 (3.0–4.8)	0.65	3.6 (3.3–4.9)	4.0 (3.0–4.8)	0.86
Baseline HAQ	1.625 (0.875–2)	1 (0.5–1.625)	0.02	1.25 (0.875–2)	1 (0.5–1.625)	0.1
SE positive (yes/no)†	19 (68)	126 (64)	0.71	25 (63)	99 (63)	0.91
Steroids (yes/no)	5 (15)	39 (17)	0.75	9 (20)	18 (10)	0.06

ARA, American Rheumatism Association; CRP, C-reactive protein; DAS, disease activity score (using 28 joint counts); HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; MTX, methotrexate; RF, rheumatoid factor; SE, shared epitope; SJC, swollen joint count; TJC, tender joint count.
This table illustrates clinical variables in those stopping for adverse events and those remaining on treatment at 1 and 2 years. Results are expressed as median (IQR) unless stated.
*293 patients had baseline CRP available and, therefore, could have DAS28 results calculated.
†260 patients had DNA samples and were successfully genotyped for SE.