Univariate analysis of baseline variables as possible predictors of radiographic progression
| Variable | OR (95%CI) | P value† | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuous variables are dichotomised by their median values and anti-CCP, RF, DRB1*04 as to whether they are present or absent. Radiological progression is defined as a difference in Larsen score between end point and baseline of ⩾8 (the median difference). | ||||||
| †Upper limit of expected number of false significances = 0.26. | ||||||
| CCP, cyclic citrullinated peptides; CI, confidence interval; DAS28, 28 joint disease activity score; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; HAQ, health assessment questionnaire; NPV, negative predictive value; OR, odds ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; RF, rheumatoid factor; VAS, visual analogue scale. | ||||||
| Larsen score ⩾4 | 9.9 (5.8 to 16.5) | 0.0005 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Anti-CCP present | 2.9 (1.8 to 4.6) | 0.0005 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| RF present | 2.6 (1.6 to 4.1) | 0.0005 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| ESR ⩾29 mm/h | 2.5 (1.6 to 4.0) | 0.0005 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| C reactive protein ⩾19 mg/l | 1.9 (1.2 to 3.0) | 0.006 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| Age ⩾55 years | 2.1 (1.3 to 3.3) | 0.001 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| Male sex | 1.8 (1.1 to 2.9) | 0.017 | 0.38 | 0.72 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| Previous or current smoker | 1.9 (1.2 to 3.0) | 0.009 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Disease duration ⩾6 months | 0.8 (0.5 to 1.3) | 0.419 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.5 | 0.45 |
| DRB1*04 present | 1.2 (0.6 to 2.3) | 0.544 | 0.58 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| DAS28⩾5.1 | 1.2 (0.8 to 2.0) | 0.324 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| Pain VAS ⩾44 mm | 0.9 (0.6 to 1.5) | 0.811 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| HAQ score ⩾0.9 | 1.0 (0.7 to 1.6) | 0.843 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.46 |