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SAT0709 Mortality prediction in mixed connective tissue disease
  1. S Reiseter1,
  2. R Gunnarsson2,
  3. TM Aaløkken3,
  4. MB Lund4,
  5. J Corander5,
  6. Ø Molberg6
  1. 1Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Norway
  2. 2Dept. of Rheumatology
  3. 3Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine
  4. 4Dept. of Respiratory Medicine, Oslo University Hospital
  5. 5Institute of Basic Medical Sciences
  6. 6Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

Abstract

Background Mixed Connective Tissue Disease (MCTD) is a chronic, immune-mediated disorder defined by the combined presence of serum anti-ribonucleoprotein (RNP) antibodies and selected clinical features of Systemic Sclerosis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, Rheumatoid Arthritis and Polymyositis. Several clinical manifestations and laboratory findings have been found to be associated to increased risk of mortality in univariable analyses (1).

Objectives Here we present a mortality predicting model in a long-term observational unselected nationwide cohort aiming to enhance the knowledge of long-term prognosis in MCTD.

Methods 135 patients were included from our nationwide MCTD cohort. Abnormal high resolution computed tomography (CT) findings of ground glass attenuation and reticular patterns were defined as Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) and expressed as percentage of Total Lung Volume (TLV). Pulmonary function tests and laboratory tests were performed within 2 months of the HRCT examination. Pleuritis was defined as typical pleurisity for more than one day, pleural effusions or pleural rub present at or before baseline. Pericarditis was defined as typical pericardial pain for more than one day, pericardial effusion, pericardial rub or pericarditis by electrocardiography at or before baseline. Myositis was confirmed by muscle biopsy and/or electromyogram and CK elevation at or before baseline. Cox regression analyses were used to find the predictive factors of mortality. Variables at a significant level of P<.25 where considered a candidate in the prediction model by manual backward elimination procedure.

Results 21 patients died after a mean (standard deviation) observation of 9 (2) years. The predictive model is shown in Table 1. According to the Harrell's C index, patient outcomes were accurately predicted by this model 85% of the time.

Table 1

Conclusions The strongest predicting factors of mortality in MCTD is increasing % ILD of TLV, pericarditis, male gender, DLCO less than 60% of predicted and increasing age at diagnosis.

References

  1. Hajas A, Szodoray P, Nakken B, Gaal J, Zold E, Laczik R, et al. Clinical course, prognosis, and causes of death in mixed connective tissue disease. The Journal of rheumatology. 2013;40(7):1134–42.

References

Disclosure of Interest None declared

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