Ann Rheum Dis 1999;58:569-572 ( September )

Extended report

Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery Fraser Birrell^a, Olof Johnell^b, Alan Silman^a

^a ARC Epidemiology Unit, University of Manchester, M13 9PT, ^b Department of Orthopaedics, UMAS University of Lund, Sweden

Correspondence to: Professor A Silman.

Accepted for publication 20 April 1999

OBJECTIVESTo estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades
METHODSProjection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.
RESULTSAssuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this furtherup to double the current number.
CONCLUSIONA sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.

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© 1999 by Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
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